Flash Flood Warning 244, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1125 AM MDT Tue Sep 13 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 134 AM MDT Tue Sep 13 2022

Numerous showers and storms will move northeast across the region
today with locally heavy rainfall. A few storms may become strong
with hail, high winds, and frequent lightning strikes. The threat
for flash flooding will be mainly over recent burn scars and areas
that receive several rounds of heavy rain. The focus for storms
will shift into eastern NM Wednesday with additional heavy rain
and a couple strong storms possible. A drier and warmer weather
pattern will return Thursday through Sunday with clearing skies
and breezy southwest winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 134 AM MDT Tue Sep 13 2022

The remnant circulation from former Hurricane Kay is in the process
of ejecting as an open wave northeastward from off the upper Baja
Peninsula coast across the Four Corners region.  This afternoon and
evening the trough will draw rich monsoon moisture northward over NM
and produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly
over the central and western two thirds of the forecast area.
Spottier activity is expected further east. With PWATs around 1 inch
and storm motions toward the northeast around 10-20 mph, locally
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible; especially from
training storms. Models have been depicting some of the heaviest QPF
over the east slopes of the south central mountains, so with this
forecast we added eastern Lincoln and southwest Chaves Counties to
the Flood Watch for Flash Flooding that was already in effect for
today from noon until midnight.  Late tonight, models depict
precipitation lingering in two main areas: from the Four Corners to
the Northwest Highlands, and in the lee of the south central
mountains.

Wednesday, shower and thunderstorm coverage and rainfall intensity
will decrease west of the central mountain chain as drier air moves
in from the west.  However, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and east of the central
mountain chain, where the monsoon moisture plume is forecast to
linger as addition disturbances rotate through a broader upper level
trough crossing the southern Rockies.  The risk for flash flooding
may continue on Wednesday, especially for the recent burn scars of
the central mountain chain.  High temperatures will trend downward
today and Wednesday with readings bottoming out Wednesday afternoon
from a few to around 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 134 AM MDT Tue Sep 13 2022

The primary upper wave associated with the remnant moisture of Kay
will be shifting eastward into the TX/OK panhandles Wednesday night.
A series of upper level jet streaks will move in from the west as a
broad upper level trough over the PacNW deepens into an upper level
low over the Great Basin thru the weekend. Much drier and warmer
weather will develop over NM Thursday thru Sunday with mostly clear
skies and breezy southwest winds.

Extended models are hinting at the aforementioned upper low becoming
stationary over the Great Basin while the subtropical ridge over the
Gulf Coast strengthens into an upper high over the MS River Valley.
This deepens a tap of moist S/SW flow into AZ and NM with increasing
chances for showers and storms beginning Monday. The 00Z GFS was
very robust with widespread heavy rainfall into next week while the
00Z ECMWF keeps drier W/SW in place over NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Tue Sep 13 2022

Winds aloft becoming swly across nrn and central NM as an upper
trough moves ewd over the Great Basin and NM durg the next 24-36
hrs. Sfc lee trof. Showers and tstms to redevelop over wrn NM as
well as the higher terrain of central NM aft 18Z and progress to the
ne and e. Mts becoming occasionally obscd in brief MVFR cigs/vsbys
in the stronger storms containing small hail, heavy rain and erratic
gusty winds. Brunt of convection to shift into central and ern NM
aft 14/06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 134 AM MDT Tue Sep 13 2022

An upper level trough crossing the central and southern Rockies will
tap rich monsoon moisture to produce widespread wetting rainfall
mainly over central and western areas today, then mainly from the
central mountain chain eastward on Wednesday. Dry air will then
prevail Thursday through the weekend under southwest flow aloft.
After cool readings today and especially Wednesday, high
temperatures will rebound through the weekend climaxing Sunday from
a few to around 10 degrees above normal. Southwest surface winds
will become breezy both days this weekend. Early next work week,
models are coming into better agreement on a deep upper level trough
gradually crossing the western US while drawing rich monsoon
moisture northward over the forecast area with widespread and
potentially heavy rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  78  52  80  54 /  70  70  20  20
Dulce...........................  74  46  72  43 /  70  70  40  20
Cuba............................  76  48  73  48 /  60  90  30  20
Gallup..........................  73  43  73  48 /  60  40  10  10
El Morro........................  68  48  67  48 /  80  50  10  10
Grants..........................  73  41  72  43 /  80  40  10  10
Quemado.........................  71  42  71  47 /  70  50  10  10
Magdalena.......................  73  52  73  51 /  80  60  30  20
Datil...........................  70  47  70  46 /  80  40  30  20
Reserve.........................  77  38  78  46 /  50  60  20  10
Glenwood........................  77  53  78  56 /  50  60  10  10
Chama...........................  69  44  66  42 /  80  70  50  20
Los Alamos......................  73  51  67  51 /  60  80  50  20
Pecos...........................  75  50  71  50 /  50  70  50  20
Cerro/Questa....................  73  44  69  34 /  50  50  60  10
Red River.......................  69  41  65  38 /  70  40  60  20
Angel Fire......................  70  37  65  36 /  60  50  60  20
Taos............................  76  46  72  44 /  50  50  50  10
Mora............................  74  48  70  44 /  60  60  60  20
Espanola........................  82  53  77  52 /  50  80  40  20
Santa Fe........................  76  53  72  53 /  50  90  50  20
Santa Fe Airport................  78  50  74  50 /  50  90  40  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  80  60  77  59 /  60  80  30  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  82  56  79  59 /  60  70  20  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  84  55  82  57 /  60  70  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  83  56  80  58 /  60  80  20  20
Belen...........................  84  54  82  55 /  60  70  20  20
Bernalillo......................  84  52  81  57 /  50  70  30  20
Bosque Farms....................  84  50  81  54 /  60  70  20  20
Corrales........................  85  54  83  58 /  60  80  20  20
Los Lunas.......................  83  51  81  56 /  60  70  20  20
Placitas........................  81  55  77  56 /  50  70  30  20
Rio Rancho......................  82  56  79  58 /  60  80  20  20
Socorro.........................  84  54  83  57 /  60  60  30  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  75  52  72  53 /  60  80  40  20
Tijeras.........................  79  55  76  54 /  60  70  40  20
Edgewood........................  76  49  73  48 /  60  70  40  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  78  42  75  46 /  60  80  40  20
Clines Corners..................  75  50  72  49 /  50  70  40  30
Mountainair.....................  77  52  74  50 /  60  60  40  20
Gran Quivira....................  77  53  75  51 /  60  80  40  30
Carrizozo.......................  80  57  79  57 /  50  80  50  30
Ruidoso.........................  73  50  73  50 /  80  60  60  30
Capulin.........................  79  52  72  48 /  30  20  50  20
Raton...........................  82  50  77  46 /  20  20  50  10
Springer........................  84  50  79  46 /  30  30  50  10
Las Vegas.......................  77  50  74  48 /  50  50  50  20
Clayton.........................  87  59  78  56 /  10  20  30  20
Roy.............................  82  56  76  52 /  30  30  50  20
Conchas.........................  87  61  80  58 /  20  30  40  30
Santa Rosa......................  84  57  78  55 /  30  40  50  30
Tucumcari.......................  89  63  81  60 /  20  20  40  30
Clovis..........................  86  61  79  58 /  20  20  50  40
Portales........................  87  61  80  59 /  20  20  40  40
Fort Sumner.....................  86  62  81  58 /  20  30  50  30
Roswell.........................  90  64  87  62 /  30  30  60  30
Picacho.........................  81  59  79  55 /  70  50  60  30
Elk.............................  77  54  76  53 /  80  60  60  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for
NMZ204>209-211-214-215-226-239>241.

&&