Flash Flood Warning 227, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
311 PM MDT Mon Aug 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorms will continue this afternoon drifting slowly from the
northwest to the southeast. Chances of precipitation will continue
tonight for areas between the Continental Divide to the east slopes
of the central mountain chain. Daily chances for showers and storms
will continue through the end of the week and into the weekend, with
flash flooding remaining a concern, especially over areas that have
saturated soils and elevated rivers and over burn scars. Sunday will
begin a period of quieter weather as temperatures warm and dry air
moves in.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
Thunderstorms got off to a rapid start early this afternoon, despite
the overnight convection that rolled through portions of the RGV.
Portions of the eastern plains are forecast to remain fairly stable,
so any storm in the northwest steering flow which strays into that
region this evening may not last for long. Consequently tonight's
highest pops are centered on the area generally between the
Continental Divide to the east slopes of the central mountain chain
and will keep the Flood Watch intact. As well, there isn't as much
to favor an east wind into the RGV tonight. If one develops it would
likely be relatively weak and not long lived this evening. Isolated
activity may persist overnight but not expecting an encore from last
night.

Upper high pressure will build/expand into southern UT with a
corresponding change in steering flow over NM on Tuesday. Most
convection Tuesday afternoon/evening should be confined to the
central and west although a rogue cell may survive into the
northeast/east central plains. Otherwise, ongoing river flooding
issues in Chaves county are expected to continue or slowly diminish
through Tuesday.

Highs Tuesday will be about 5-10 degrees below average. Overnight
lows will generally be within a few degrees of normal.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
High pressure will become centered over the Four Corners by
Wednesday. PWAT values remain elevated, and with moisture trapped
beneath the high pressure, should expect to see showers and
convective activity driven by orographical forcing. Flash flooding
remains a concern with storms that produce locally heavy rainfall,
especially over burn scars. Steering flow for storms will be slowly
south to southwest.

High pressure will begin to deteriorate as a trough moves in from the
Pacific NW Thursday. As this trough makes an eastward progression,
models are in consensus with it deepening into New Mexico Friday into
Saturday. This atmospheric setup will help bring an axis of monsoonal
moisture from AZ into western NM, subsequently leading to an increase
in storms Thursday into Saturday. Energy in the H5 levels increases
Friday into Saturday which would favor upward motion in northern and
eastern NM, thus creating a concern for convective activity that
features locally heavy downpours. An elevated flood threat will
continue to be the main concern through the rest of the long-term
period with any storms that produce heavy rainfall, especially in
areas where soils are saturated and rivers are elevated.
Strengthening NW flow with the upper wave and low-level southeasterly
flow may allow for a few strong storms to develop over eastern NM
Friday and/or Saturday.

The threat for active weather appears to decrease Sunday as the
center of the high pressure strengthens over NM and drier mid-level
air arrives from the west. As this high pressure sets in,
temperatures should respond with a warming trend, bringing daytime
highs closer to normal climatological values.

48/99

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
While the weather pattern will undergo some changes this week,
moisture will continue to be sufficient for mainly afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms. Daytime temperatures will run
several degrees cooler than normal through Saturday, and lows will
be within a few degrees of average. The upper high is forecast to
build into southern CO/northwest NM by Wednesday, with cell motions
becoming more northeast to southwest, and convection overall
favoring the central and west. Late this week an upper trough may
pass over the central and southern Rockies for an upswing in
activity. The upper ridge rebuilds early next week but could be
centered over the Great Basin or over NM with the later location
suggesting better drying and more warming.

Widespread fair to poor ventilation rates are expected Tuesday
through Thursday.

48

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
NW-nly flow aloft. Mts occasionally obscd in sct to nmrs showers and
tstms to develop over the wrn and nrn high terrain by 19Z then
progress into the lower elevations. Lcl MVFR cigs/vsbys possible in
the stronger storms. Lcl MVFR cigs persist over portions of east
central and se NM through 22/23Z. Convection to wane over central and
wrn NM aft 23/03Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  62  87  62  89 /  20  10  20  10
Dulce...........................  50  80  50  83 /  40  40  20  40
Cuba............................  53  75  52  79 /  40  40  20  30
Gallup..........................  55  82  55  83 /  20  20  10  30
El Morro........................  52  75  52  77 /  30  40  20  50
Grants..........................  52  78  52  81 /  30  30  20  40
Quemado.........................  53  77  54  77 /  30  50  20  50
Magdalena.......................  55  74  55  76 /  50  40  30  40
Datil...........................  52  72  52  74 /  50  50  30  40
Reserve.........................  56  81  57  81 /  40  60  40  60
Glenwood........................  61  82  63  83 /  50  60  40  60
Chama...........................  47  73  46  76 /  50  50  30  70
Los Alamos......................  54  73  54  76 /  60  50  30  50
Pecos...........................  52  72  52  75 /  50  60  40  50
Cerro/Questa....................  46  73  45  77 /  50  60  20  60
Red River.......................  41  65  40  70 /  50  70  30  70
Angel Fire......................  42  66  40  70 /  60  70  40  60
Taos............................  50  75  49  78 /  50  50  20  50
Mora............................  49  69  48  72 /  60  70  40  60
Espanola........................  53  80  50  84 /  50  40  20  40
Santa Fe........................  54  73  54  76 /  50  60  30  50
Santa Fe Airport................  54  76  54  80 /  50  50  30  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  60  79  60  83 /  50  40  30  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  62  80  62  84 /  40  30  20  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  56  83  56  86 /  40  20  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  60  81  60  85 /  50  30  20  20
Belen...........................  62  83  62  86 /  40  20  20  20
Bernalillo......................  59  82  58  88 /  50  30  20  30
Bosque Farms....................  59  82  59  85 /  40  20  20  20
Corrales........................  59  82  59  87 /  50  30  20  30
Los Lunas.......................  61  82  61  85 /  40  20  20  20
Placitas........................  58  78  58  83 /  50  40  30  30
Rio Rancho......................  60  81  61  85 /  50  30  20  20
Socorro.........................  61  83  61  85 /  40  30  30  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  54  72  54  75 /  50  50  30  40
Tijeras.........................  56  75  56  78 /  40  40  30  40
Edgewood........................  53  74  53  78 /  40  40  30  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  53  76  52  79 /  40  40  30  30
Clines Corners..................  52  71  52  75 /  40  40  30  30
Mountainair.....................  53  73  54  76 /  40  40  20  30
Gran Quivira....................  54  74  55  76 /  40  40  30  30
Carrizozo.......................  58  77  59  79 /  30  40  30  40
Ruidoso.........................  53  68  52  70 /  40  50  30  50
Capulin.........................  51  73  51  76 /  20  40  10  20
Raton...........................  52  77  50  80 /  30  40  10  30
Springer........................  52  76  50  82 /  40  50  20  30
Las Vegas.......................  51  71  50  75 /  50  60  30  40
Clayton.........................  56  80  56  82 /   5  20   0   5
Roy.............................  54  75  54  77 /  20  30  10  20
Conchas.........................  57  79  56  84 /  20  20  10  10
Santa Rosa......................  57  78  58  80 /  20  20  10  20
Tucumcari.......................  59  83  60  85 /   5   5   5   5
Clovis..........................  58  79  58  81 /  10   5   5   5
Portales........................  59  80  59  83 /  10   5   5   5
Fort Sumner.....................  61  82  61  82 /  10  10  10  10
Roswell.........................  65  84  65  85 /  20  20  10  10
Picacho.........................  60  77  58  80 /  30  30  20  30
Elk.............................  56  73  56  77 /  30  40  20  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
NMZ208-211-214-215-226.

&&