Flash Flood Warning 221, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
545 AM MDT Sat Aug 20 2022

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Widespread light to moderate rain with lcl MVFR cigs will continue
spreading northeast into central and eastern NM today. Brief IFR may
develop locally near the high terrain and east slopes of the central
mt chain, especially from KSRR to KCQC thru 02Z. Any embedded TSRA
will produce lcl heavy rainfall as well, primarily across eastern NM.
Rain, areas of fog, and low cigs will continue over eastern NM most
of tonight with widespread IFR expected aft 02Z.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...309 AM MDT Sat Aug 20 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
The initial impulse of monsoonal moisture is bringing moderate to
locally heavy rainfall into southwestern NM this morning, slowly
spreading north and eastward into south-central NM. This will
continue to spread into central NM through the morning before
entering the eastern plains this afternoon and evening. Widespread
precipitation totals through the end of Sunday morning of 0.50” to
1.50” with localized heavier amounts of to 2” to 4” will focus
along and south of I-40. Flash flooding remains the main impact of
concern, especially over southern burn scars and already soaked
areas. Conditions clear out through Sunday, with more normal daily
rounds of afternoon storms forming over the central mountain each day
heading into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
Composite radar shows widespread light to moderate rainfall shifting
northeast across much of southern and central NM early this morning.
There are very few changes to convey and the overall message of an
elevated risk for flooding continues, especially on burn scars, low
lying areas, and some creeks and streams leading to mainstem rivers.
Rainfall rates may not be high enough to allow for "flash flooding"
over most of the area however, it is uncertain how saturated soils
will respond to longer duration widespread moderate to heavy rain.
The greatest confidence for 24-hr precip amounts of 2 to 4" exists
over east central NM as the center of sfc low pressure and mid level
deformation drifts slowly E/NE thru tonight. Areas of fog are also
likely to lower vsbys across the south and east which will make for
difficult travel with rain and road spray thru tonight. The entire
wave is expected to exit eastern NM Sunday morning with lingering fog
and light rain showers east of the central mt chain. Enough clearing
may develop across the northern and western high terrain for a few
storms to fire up and move south late Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
Sunday night into Monday starts the long term period seeing the
upper low currently near Elko, NV diving south over northern NM and
opening to a trough. This looks to enhance CI over the northern
mountains of New Mexico by midday. North to south steering flow looks
to steer storms southward over adjacent lower elevations along the
central mountain chain through Monday afternoon and evening.

By Tuesday, a modest 590-592dm 5H high takes shape over the Great
Basin region, setting up N-S flow aloft over NM. With easterly
upslope surface flow through the eastern plains each day, storms
Tuesday and Wednesday will favor CI over the central mountain chain.
Steering flow will again take these storms N to S over adjacent lower
elevations along the central mountain chain and Rio Grande Valleys.
Have tried to capture this with chance PoPs over the RGV during the
evening periods. Thereafter, the high pressure over the Great Basin
breaks down, replaced by strengthening northwest flow aloft
associated with a low traversing west to east across MT. This opens
the door for storms developing over the central mountain chain to
make it further into eastern NM Thursday, and moreso by Friday. The
GFS and ECMWF solutions also show surface return flow over the
eastern plains of NM, which should feed good boundary layer inflow
into any storms moving southeast off the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
during this time.

Guyer/24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Widespread rain with isolated storms will produce a large swath of
rainfall amounts of 1 to 2" across central NM with 2 to 4" across
the south and east through tonight. The focus will then shift into
northern and western NM Sunday where a few storms are possible by
late afternoon. An active weather pattern will continue with daily
rounds of showers and storms with heavy rainfall thru the end of
next week.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for the following zones...
NMZ207-212-214-217>219-221>223-228-229-231>237.

Flood Watch through this evening for the following zones...
NMZ202-205-206-208-209-211-215-220-224>226-238>241.

&&