Flash Flood Warning 220, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1138 AM MDT Fri Aug 19 2022

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A very active pattern is expected through Saturday as an easterly
wave and an abundant amount of moisture tracks over the area. Today's
shower and thunderstorm activity will favor southern and western NM
and will develop into a large area of rain as the activity moves NE
into central and eastern NM overnight. Rain at times will be
moderate to heavy, producing MVFR visibilities. MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys
will be common across much of the area as well by sunrise, impacting
many of the TAF sites through 18Z.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...314 AM MDT Fri Aug 19 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
A significant surge of monsoonal moisture is still on tap to arrive
into the desert southwest beginning late Friday, and lasting through
Saturday night. This plume of moisture will bring moderate to heavy
rain and flash flooding potential. The southwestern and south-central
mountains to include the Black, Bear Trap, and McBride burn scars
will be the favored areas for flash flooding potential first Friday
night into Saturday morning. This hazard spreads to more of central
NM during the day Saturday, before shifting over the eastern plains
Saturday night into Sunday morning. As such, much of the flash
flooding potential is now forecast to focus along and south of I-40
with lesser potential over northern NM. Conditions clear out through
the day Sunday. A return to a more normal daily routine of afternoon
storms arrives next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
Some important changes occurred overnight which resulted in lower
confidence on QPF for the northwestern edge of the heavy rainfall
expected to move over the region tonight thru Saturday night. The
Flood Watch was cancelled for areas closer to the CO border as the
entire system is trending farther southeast. Scattered to numerous
Showers and storms are still expected to develop over the southern
high terrain today with more isolated activity farther north toward
the I-40 corridor. The start time of the Flood Watch for central and
eastern NM was also pushed out until Saturday morning as drier, more
stable air remains in place over this region today. A couple storms
are still possible over the northern high terrain so the watch is
still in effect for burn scar areas.

Saturday is still on track to feature heavy rainfall and a couple
embedded storms for the southeastern half of NM as a warm-core low
lifts northeast over the area. This is a complex scenario and the
track of the rain shield will be impacted by an upstream upper low
traversing the Great Basin and a subtropical ridge strengthening
over south TX. There are considerable differences with the latest
deterministic model QPF for areas northwest of a line from near
Socorro to Clines Corners and Tucumcari Saturday and Saturday night.
There are also large spreads in the NBM QPF quartiles so confidence
is lower on rainfall amounts. The airmass also lacks instability for
convection so weather grids were converted to mostly moderate to
heavy rain with isolated storms. Despite lower confidence farther
north and west, there is still high confidence on widespread heavy
rainfall over southern and eastern areas where 2 to 4 inches of rain
is likely over an 18 to 30-hour period. This may not translate into
flash flooding outside the McBride burn scar but rises are likely to
occur on creeks, streams, and tributaries to mainstem rivers within
east central and southeast NM. Low lying areas may also experience
flooding by Saturday night. All this rain and cloud cover will come
with max temps of 15 to 20F below normal.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
The long term period begins Sunday night with the significant plume
of monsoonal moisture and heavy rain potential shifting over the
eastern plains of New Mexico. With the main feature looking to close
off to an upper low over NM, model solutions are depicting a band or
two of moderate to heavy rainfall over east- central NM during this
time. Model spreads generally favor areas along I-40 southward into
Chaves County. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with localized
amounts as high as 3 inches are possible within this area by the end
of Sunday morning. Low-laying and poorly drained areas will be
susceptible to flash flooding. Meanwhile, areas along and west of the
Rio Grande River look to be drying and clearing out during this
time. The clearing conditions will spread eastward as the main system
exits eastward into TX, with nearly all areas becoming rain free by
mid-day Sunday, but only for a short time.

Clearing skies allowing for increased heating and instability, and
abundant leftover boundary layer moisture looks to bring a fairly
standard crop of afternoon storms favoring the high terrain of New
Mexico Sunday afternoon. Slow storm motions and wet antecedent ground
conditions will allow for flash flooding to again be a factor for
soaked areas and burn scars. Meanwhile, a weakening low opening to a
trough will move southward from western CO into northwestern NM
Sunday night into Monday morning. This will act to keep a few showers
going overnight Sunday night over northwestern and north-central NM
while other areas see clearing conditions. This system will also act
as an impetus for afternoon storms to favor the northern mountains
Monday afternoon before sliding southward and over adjacent valley
locations Monday evening.

Thereafter, the synoptic scale pattern favors a new high pressure
system becoming the dominant player over the UT/AZ border by Tuesday.
This will setup a northerly flow aloft over NM. Daily rounds of
storms will favor the central mountain chain, with general storm
motions toward the south and south-southwest each day and evening.
Drier conditions will favor the far northwest near the Four Corners
and eastern plains toward the TX border.

Guyer/24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns the next 7 days. Showers and storms across
the region today will give way to a large area of rain late tonight
through Saturday and Saturday night. Rain amounts of 1 to 2" may be
common over central NM with 2 to 4" likely over the south and east.
Rain will exit eastern NM Sunday while showers and storms develop
across the north and west. Storms with locally heavy rainfall are
expected each afternoon through the middle of next week with flash
flooding possible on burn scars.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for the
following zones... NMZ207-212-214-217>219-221>223-228-229-231>237.

Flood Watch through Saturday evening for the following zones...
NMZ202-205-206-208-209-211-215-220-224>226-238>241.

&&