Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Albuquerque, NM

825 
WGUS75 KABQ 200201
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
801 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

NMC047-200330-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-220620T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Miguel NM-
801 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE HERMITS PEAK AND CALF CANYON BURN 
SCAR REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR 
NORTHWESTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY...

At 801 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain over the Hermits Peak and Calf Canyon Burn Scar. Between 0.25 
and 0.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up 
to 0.25 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is 
ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

Excessive rainfall over the burn scar will impact the Gallinas 
Creek, Gallinas River, and Tecolote Creek drainage area including 
Porvenir Canyon, Arroyo Pecos, Agua Zarca, Cabo Lucero Creek, Ojitos 
Frios Creek and Vegosa Creek. The debris flow can consist of rock, 
mud, vegetation and other loose materials.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding in and around the Hermits Peak and Calf
         Canyon Burn Scar.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around
         the Hermits Peak and Calf Canyon Burn Scar.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Las Vegas, El Porvenir, Montezuma, Storrie Lake State Park, 
  Romeroville, Gallinas, Mineral Hill, San Geronimo and San Pablo.

This includes the following low water crossings...
	West Las Vegas High School, Mills Bridge and Valencia Street.

This includes the following highways...
	State Road 283 between Mile Markers 1 and 12...and
	near Mile Marker 14.
	State Road 65 between Mile Markers 1 and 14.
	State Road 518 between Mile Markers 1 and 10.
	State Road 104 between Mile Markers 1 and 4.
	Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 339 and 352.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Runoff from rainfall will cause elevated water levels within 
vulnerable drainages in and downstream of the south zone of the 
Hermits Peak Calf Canyon fire burn area.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Do not camp along streams and rivers. Remain alert when hiking in 
steep, narrow canyons. Know where you are relative to low spots and 
drainages.



&&

LAT...LON 3579 10544 3575 10540 3576 10535 3574 10520
      3568 10517 3565 10512 3550 10514 3546 10521
      3551 10526 3557 10535 3553 10540 3553 10554
      3560 10559 3566 10555 3570 10554 3572 10556
      3575 10557 3578 10556 3582 10553

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

12

400 
WGUS75 KABQ 200330
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
930 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

NMC047-200340-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-220620T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Miguel NM-
930 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE HERMITS PEAK AND CALF CANYON BURN 
SCAR WILL EXPIRE AT 930 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN SAN 
MIGUEL COUNTY...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Scattered showers 
and thunderstorms will continue over the region tonight with periods 
of light to moderate rainfall. Please remain alert to potential 
Flash Flood Warnings overnight.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 500 AM MDT Monday for portions 
of central and north central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3579 10544 3575 10540 3576 10535 3574 10520
      3568 10517 3565 10512 3550 10514 3546 10521
      3551 10526 3557 10535 3553 10540 3553 10554
      3560 10559 3566 10555 3570 10554 3572 10556
      3575 10557 3578 10556 3582 10553

$$

Guyer

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
615 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

.UPDATE...Issued a Flash Flood Watch for The Santa Fe Metro, Middle
and lower Rio Grande Valley including Albuquerque and Socorro, the
Sandia and Manzano Mountains and South Central Highlands. They are
in effect until 500 AM MDT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...536 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will move toward the
northeast at 15 to 30 KT this evening into the night. Some storms
will produce locally heavy rainfall with mountain obscurations and
wet microbursts. Erratic wind gusts up to 45 kt is possible from
stronger storms. Brief MVFR cigs and vsbys with the heavier rain. The
monsoon plume will begin to tilt toward the northeast with lingering
showers later tonight into Monday morning, mainly east of the Rio
Grand Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will blossom again Monday
afternoon with more heavy rain.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
The monsoon continues with a vengeance across northern and central
New Mexico. The showers and thunderstorms are more widespread today,
with only the southeast portion of our CWA escaping any rain. The
threat for flash flooding has increased, with the substantial rain
amounts from the last two days, saturating the soil. This is
especially true for burn scars where dangerous debris flows could
occur as well. The showers and thunderstorms will continue through
this evening, then gradually transition to bands of showers with an
isolated storm after midnight. A storm coming out of the Pacific
Northwest today will move east across the northern Rockies Monday,
turning the flow aloft more to the northeast. This will bring more
rain to eastern NM and less to the northwest, where it could be rain
free Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday will be active days as a couple of
upper level disturbances swing through. The upper high well to our
east now will try to move back west late in the week and next
weekend with a gradual diminishing of storm coverage and intensity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
Tonight and Monday the deep upper level trough over the western US
will form a closed upper level low pressure system that will migrate
northeastward across the northern Rockies.  This will tilt the
monsoon moisture plume over NM along a SW-NE axis and allow drier
air over the northwest third of the forecast area. Strengthening
southwest flow within the moisture plume will interact with the high
terrain of the northern, central and south central mountains
resulting in orographically enhance precipitation tonight. Thus, we
will continue our Flash Flood Watch until 5 AM for portions of the
central mountain chain, while the Watch for western areas looks
alright to expire at 9 PM.

On Monday, a broad SW-NE oriented moisture plume will favor
locations east of the continental divide for showers and
thunderstorms, some with locally heavy rainfall.  The flash flood
risk looks to continue for some areas Monday, especially along and
southeast of a Hermits Peak to Black Fire line.  Will let the night
shift consider extending the Flash Flood Watch based on fresh model
guidance and updated information on where the soils are saturated
from today's rainfall. It does look like the flash flood risk may
persist through Monday night over the south central mountains and
adjacent high plains. With all the moisture in place, high
temperatures should vary from a few to around 11 degrees below
normal on Monday.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
The very active pattern will continue Tuesday and Wednesday as a
couple of weak disturbances move north from Mexico, helped along by
the counter-clockwise motion from a big upper low along the west
coast. Copious amounts of rain, combined with previous rain to this
point, will likely cause flash flooding, especially on the burn
scars, where debris flows are possible. The big upper high over the
middle of the country will move back west toward NM late this week
through the weekend. The daily rounds of convection will gradually
lessen in coverage and intensity from Thursday through the weekend.
High temperatures will be well below to below normal the next few
days, before approaching normal next weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The rich and early plume of monsoon moisture will tilt to more of a
SW-NE orientation tonight through Monday night. Locally heavy
rainfall is expected as PWATs near the plume axis vary around 100%
to 200% of normal for this time of year. Microburst winds and
lightning will be a concern for fire suppression operations, as well
as flash flooding within and below burn scars. After a downtick in
convection over northwest areas Monday, the monsoon plume is
forecast to build back over northwest areas while remaining over
central and eastern areas. Locally heavy rainfall may become the
most widespread on Tuesday as a cooling disturbance works its way
north and northeastward across the forecast area. A low pressure
system on the CA coast will work with the Great Plains high to keep a
rich monsoon moisture plume going through Wednesday. The plume is
then forecast to take on a more traditional orientation Thursday
through Friday as it straddles western and north central areas with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and
evening. A moist backdoor front is then forecast to dive
southwestward through the forecast area Saturday through Sunday
invigorating showers and storms over eastern areas while the west
remains active.

With all the moisture in place high temperatures will remain a few
to several degrees below normal, except for some near and above
normal readings along the eastern border of the forecast area
Wednesday through Saturday

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will move toward the
northeast at 15 to 30 KT this afternoon and tonight. Some storms will
produce locally heavy rainfall with mountain obscurations and wet
microbursts. Erratic wind gusts up to 45 kt possible from stronger
cells. The monsoon plume will begin to tilt toward the northeast with
lingering showers into Monday morning mainly east of the Rio Grand
Valley.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
NMZ204-206>208-211-241.

Flood Watch until 5 AM MDT Monday for the following zones...
NMZ214-215-217>221-224-226.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
403 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

NMZ204-211-192230-
Northwest Highlands-Jemez Mountains-
403 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN LOS
ALAMOS, SOUTH CENTRAL RIO ARRIBA AND NORTHEASTERN SANDOVAL COUNTIES
THROUGH 430 PM MDT...

At 402 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Fenton Lake State Park, or 16 miles south of Cuba,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cuba, Jemez Springs, Fenton Lake State Park, Jemez State Monument,
Gallina and La Jara.

This includes Highway 550 between Mile Markers 42 and 59, near Mile
Marker 61, and between Mile Markers 64 and 65.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3618 10662 3617 10665 3617 10666 3615 10665
      3617 10659 3597 10627 3567 10687 3577 10706
      3623 10688 3624 10686 3625 10687 3628 10686
      3631 10683
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 215DEG 29KT 3579 10689

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
410 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

NMZ234-236-237-192245-
Roosevelt County-Quay County-De Baca County-
410 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
ROOSEVELT, EAST CENTRAL DE BACA AND SOUTHWESTERN QUAY COUNTIES
THROUGH 445 PM MDT...

At 410 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms near
Tolar, or 17 miles east of Fort Sumner, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
House, Ragland, Tolar, Mcalister and Forrest.

This includes Highway 60 near Mile Marker 346, and between Mile
Markers 348 and 349.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3469 10368 3469 10370 3466 10370 3443 10388
      3451 10408 3497 10396 3485 10356
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 203DEG 19KT 3454 10394

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
416 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

NMZ206-207-219-192245-
West Central Highlands-West Central Mountains-Middle Rio Grande
Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
416 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN CIBOLA,
EAST CENTRAL MCKINLEY, SOUTH CENTRAL SANDOVAL AND BERNALILLO COUNTIES
THROUGH 445 PM MDT...

At 415 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Marquez, or 13 miles northeast of Laguna Pueblo,
moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marquez, Seboyeta and Paguate.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3507 10730 3526 10744 3554 10713 3519 10683
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 241DEG 19KT 3521 10724

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
445 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

NMZ204-207-219-192315-
West Central Highlands-Northwest Highlands-Middle Rio Grande
Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
445 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SANDOVAL AND BERNALILLO COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM MDT...

At 444 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles east of Marquez, or 23 miles northeast of Laguna Pueblo, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Western Rio Rancho.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent dangerous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this
storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a
safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3564 10699 3527 10672 3517 10712 3536 10727
      3540 10725 3542 10723 3541 10721 3545 10721
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 239DEG 20KT 3529 10709

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
452 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

NMZ212-214-218-192315-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Santa Fe Metro Area-Glorieta Mesa
Including Glorieta Pass-
452 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SANTA
FE COUNTY THROUGH 515 PM MDT...

At 452 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Eldorado At Santa Fe, or near Santa Fe, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Santa Fe, Eldorado At Santa Fe, Canada De Los Alamos, Hyde Memorial
State Park, Rio En Medio in Santa Fe County, Tesuque, Chupadero, Lamy
and La Cienega.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 275 and 293.
 Highway 285 between Mile Markers 285 and 290.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on highways as storms move through the area.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3585 10595 3575 10568 3547 10589 3556 10609
      3585 10598
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 204DEG 17KT 3559 10595

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
506 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

NMZ208-209-192330-
San Francisco River Valley-Southwest Mountains-
506 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN CATRON
COUNTY THROUGH 530 PM MDT...

At 505 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pleasanton, or 19 miles northwest of Buckhorn, moving northeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Glenwood, Alma, Mogollon and Pleasanton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3335 10905 3360 10897 3347 10845 3321 10855
      3321 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 216DEG 19KT 3329 10885

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

12