Flash Flood Warning 213, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
521 AM MDT Wed Aug 17 2022

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR/IFR cigs have filled in the wake of showers and storms from last
night over much of northeastern NM, stretching swd to KTCC. MVFR cigs
are also developing over a few spots over southeastern NM near KROW-
KSRR as well, associated with an easterly wave moving westward south
of El Paso. Another round of afternoon shra and ts will favor the
northern third and southern third of the state today, with the most
widespread coverage expected along and east of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. A dry slot will generally keep ts chances lower through
central NM from K0E0 to KABQ to KGUP. Storms will last longest over
northeastern and east-central NM this evening and through the end of
the TAF period. More MVFR/IFR cigs are likely through this area as
well Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

24

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.PREV DISCUSSION...227 AM MDT Wed Aug 17 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of a moist surface boundary will stay over northeastern
New Mexico today, keeping high chances for showers and thunderstorms,
many of which will be capable of producing locally heavy rain and
possible flash flooding. Outside of northeastern New Mexico,
increased moisture will be present, and isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and into the
evening, just not as concentrated as in northeastern areas. High
temperatures will be cooler than average today due to expected clouds
and storms in the area. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected each day through the end of the week and into early next
week, especially in western and central New Mexico with Saturday
having the highest rain chances overall. Storms will often be slow-
moving which will lead to an increased threat for locally heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
Overnight convection continues over far northeastern NM this morning
from Raton to Clayton. Meanwhile the easterly wave just south of El
Paso continues to bring sporadic shower activity into south-central
NM and parts of Socorro and Lincoln counties. With the easterly wave
to the south, a 591dm 5H upper high over the northern Great Basin,
and a larger troughing pattern to the east, an upper level
deformation zone sets up over north-central to northeastern NM.
These synoptic features will allow the abundant moisture to take
full advantage of the resulting lift along the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains again today. Hi-res CAMs show CI near the noon hour over
the ridgeline and mesas near Raton. Heavy rainfall will result from
any storm here, with storms expected to cluster into a complex over
the northeastern plains late into the evening and overnight period.
With potential rainfall totals of 1" to 2" from any passing storm,
burn scars, and already soaked soils, a Flash Flood Watch will be
laid down again for this part of the forecast area.

Further west, the mid-level dry slot north and northwest of the
easterly wave looks to keep convection mostly suppressed over west-
central and central NM this afternoon. More sporadic and slow moving
storms are possible further into northwestern NM. While confidence
is lower here with regards to flash flooding, cannot rule out the
potential since storms should reside over locations for a longer
period of time. Meanwhile, scattered storms are also possible over
the southeastern plains where an outflow boundary from yesterday's
convection will eventually stall out by Wednesday afternoon.

While convection over the southwestern two thirds of the state
steadily tapers off Wednesday evening, strengthening northerly flow
over CO will push the complex of storms over northeastern NM into
the eastern plains Wednesday night. The aforementioned deformation
area looks to keep this convective activity going well overnight
before dying off Thursday morning. Model solutions are showing the
northerly flow aloft bringing in drier dewpoints into northern NM,
down into the 40s. This will act to shunt the majority of Thursday's
afternoon convection to areas along and south of I-40, with lesser
scattered activity forecast for the northern mountains.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A messy upper level pattern will continue to reside over the
American Rockies on Friday. Some of the more notable features will
include the remains of the upper low that crossed Old Mexico, which
should be in either Sonora and perhaps stretching into southeastern
AZ, and another weaker trough/low over eastern UT and western CO with
weak deformation persisting over parts of northern NM. Upper level
winds will certainly depend on the exact placement of these features,
but they will be spatially variable across NM, posing some
uncertainty as to the moisture distribution across the state. The
western and southern tiers of the state would appear to host the
highest PWATs on Friday with very high values of 1.0 to 1.5 inch in
southern counties (mostly south of the forecast area). Highest POPs
will be in these western and southern tiers of the forecast area
where the deepest moisture will be, and the southwestern mountains
and Gila wilderness would have the closest access to the deep
subtropical tap from the remnant low in Sonora/AZ. All remaining
zones should at least see isolated to scattered cells Friday with the
far northeastern plains observing the sparsest coverage where
temperatures may gain a couple of degrees, but still stay slightly
below average.

The fate of the aforementioned upper level features will remain
uncertain into Friday night and Saturday, as the larger scale
synoptic pattern remains somewhat blocky with deeper stagnant lows
over the eastern Pacific and the upper Midwest. Regardless, the
consensus is for the Sonora/AZ low to be drawn northeastward in a
weakened or sheared state. More importantly will be the deep
subtropical moisture flux that will enter more of central and perhaps
northern NM into Saturday, and while deterministic members have
differences with regard to how the moisture invades, there is fairly
high consensus (even among ensemble means) that high, above normal
PWATs (1.0 to 1.6 inch) will overtake much of the forecast area
Saturday. Widespread rain and cooler temperatures seem to be a safe
bet, but the more challenging aspect of the Saturday forecast will
likely hinge on the nature of the precipitation whether convective or
predominantly stratiform. Even with stratiform precipitation, raindrop
size distribution would largely take on tropical characteristics
with such high PWATs, and heavy rainfall will be a growing concern.

Deterministic models quickly grow out of phase with the placement of
upper level features into early next week. Still, there is consensus
that some drying would take place into Sunday, Monday and Tuesday,
but near to slightly above average PWATs would remain over much of
the forecast area with no strong subsident features to contend with.
This will keep the below average temperatures going with scattered to
numerous showers and storms going each day.

24/52

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.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns through the forecast period. More flash
flooding is expected over burn scars remains today, in particular
the HPCC scar given numerous thunderstorm potential along and east of
the Sangre de Cristo Mountains today. Southern burn scars come under
a higher threat of flash flooding Thursday and Friday thanks to an
easterly wave traversing westward just south of the international
border. This feature will combine with a significant plume of
monsoonal moisture and move northward into the state Saturday,
significantly increasing chances for widespread wetting precipitation
and flash flooding potential. Well below normal temperatures are
forecast given the expected increased cloud cover, and this could
actually play a role in limiting more robust convection Saturday.
Conditions clear out with a more normal daily routine of afternoon
storms Sunday into next week.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for the
following zones... NMZ227-228-230.

Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for the
following zones... NMZ214-215-229.

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