Flash Flood Warning 207, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1138 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist at most terminals,
although MVFR cigs are forecast to develop tonight behind a backdoor
front and impact KLVS through Wednesday morning. In addition, short-
lived MVFR conditions are possible with thunderstorm impacts today
at KGUP, KFMN and KLVS. A gusty east canyon wind is forecast at KABQ
overnight, but is forecast to remain below Airport Weather Warning
threshold at this time.

11

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.PREV DISCUSSION...1017 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022...
.UPDATE...
Updated the Flash Flood Watch to include Union and Harding Counties
based on 12Z model output showing decent run-to-run consistency with
higher qpf placement, modest instability and relatively light
steering flow. Deep convection across far northeast NM will produce
torrential rainfall this afternoon/evening with the potential for
amounts up to 4".

11

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.PREV DISCUSSION...203 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
An increasingly active stretch of the monsoon will be on hand for the
remainder of the week into this weekend. Showers and thunderstorms
will first expand over northern New Mexico today and Wednesday as a
moist surface front and an upper level disturbance move in the area.
Thunderstorms will then multiply and expand into Thursday, Friday
and the weekend with abundant moisture moving into place. Stronger
storms will be capable of locally heavy rainfall, as well as areas of
flash flooding, especially over recent wildfire burn scars. The
increasing amount of clouds and showers and thunderstorms will cause
temperatures to cool a few degrees below normal.

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.DISCUSSION...

...INCREASING NUMBER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD TO A HIGHER RISK OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
The synoptic pattern features a 590dm 5H upper high over the Great
Basin, while a well defined easterly wave is moving westward through
the TX Big Bend area this morning. Remnant showers and storms that
persisted near Raton overnight will slowly taper off through this
morning. Surface obs and radar show a surface outflow boundary
progressing southward through the northeastern plains as well,
originating from convection over the Front Range yesterday evening.
This boundary looks to stall somewhere over east-central NM along or
near I-40 as it comes up against prevailing southeasterly surface
flow associated with the easterly wave. Flow behind this feature
will turn more upslope into the Sangre de Cristo Mtns with CI
resulting by midday over the high terrain. With the easterly upslope
flow and stalled surface boundary acting as a catalyst for CI,
midlevel atmospheric stretching b/w the easterly wave and upper high
will result in very robust and long duration thunderstorm activity
along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mtns through the evening
hours. Heavy rainfall over already saturated soils in the
northeastern highlands and over burn scars support the issuance of
yet another Flash Flood Watch for this area today.

Meanwhile, more standard scattered convection will favor the western
and north-central mountains with slow steering flow. Water vapor
imagery this morning meanwhile shows a tongue of dry air aloft that
looks to suppress convective activity through central NM and into
the Rio Grande Valley. But can't entirely rule out an isolated storm
over the Sandia/Manzano and Gallinas Mountains that is able to punch
through during the afternoon. Storm activity will persist longest
over the northeastern plains where the aforementioned upper level
deformation keeps nocturnal convection going. Otherwise, a few
showers or storms associated with the easterly wave may reach into
southern Lincoln or Socorro Counties as the wave moves south of El
Paso Wednesday night.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
Thursday’s upper level features will consist of the upper low over
Sonora (that originated from the western Gulf of Mexico) and the
primary upper high centered over UT/WY/CO with satellite centroids
over central Old Mexico and also in the eastern Pacific. This will
bring a northerly wind aloft into northern NM with perhaps some
drying in northern NM with PWATs dropping closer to 0.75” in the
northern Sangre de Cristos. Still much of the forecast area will
retain higher PWATs close to 1.0 inch or better, especially in
southeastern zones, so another active thunderstorm day is
anticipated with scattered to numerous storms throughout the forecast
area. Some weak deformation and stretching aloft is possible in the
southern zones with slow storm motions that will be conducive to
locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures will generally run 5 to 10
degrees below normal due to the abundant cloud cover and storms.

The tri-state high over UT/WY/CO will weaken considerably and sag
into NM on Friday with a cut-off low wandering into southern ID. This
will keep the relatively drier air (PWAT around 0.75”) over the
Sangre de Cristos with moisture increasing farther south and west
(PWATs near or greater than 1.0 inch). Very light steering flow would
again be in place over NM with no subsidence expected, so scattered
to numerous storms would once again initiate, particularly over the
western and central high terrain.

The aforementioned low over southern ID would drop southeastward into
Saturday, but how far is anything but certain. The bigger impact
will come from a significant moisture surge as the other low over
Sonora and southern AZ helps initiate a southerly component that will
steer part of the deep monsoon plume over much of NM. The flow aloft
could turn more westerly into Saturday, but will still remain quite
moist as a portion of the plume in AZ expands into NM. Relatively
drier air may finally start to seep back into NM from the north on
Monday and more-so into Tuesday of next week, reducing the storm
coverage some.

24/52

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.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns through the forecast period. A continued
active monsoon pattern will keep area burn scars under the threat of
flash flooding however. Northern burn scars, with the HPCC burn scar
in particular will see a heightened threat of flash flooding today.
This threat expands to all burn scars for the rest of the week with
Saturday seeing the peak threat of widespread flash flooding.

24

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.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM MDT this evening for
the following zones... NMZ227-228-230-231.

Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
NMZ214-215.

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