Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
310 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
The monsoon continues with a vengeance across northern and central
New Mexico. The showers and thunderstorms are more widespread today,
with only the southeast portion of our CWA escaping any rain. The
threat for flash flooding has increased, with the substantial rain
amounts from the last two days, saturating the soil. This is
especially true for burn scars where dangerous debris flows could
occur as well. The showers and thunderstorms will continue through
this evening, then gradually transition to bands of showers with an
isolated storm after midnight. A storm coming out of the Pacific
Northwest today will move east across the northern Rockies Monday,
turning the flow aloft more to the northeast. This will bring more
rain to eastern NM and less to the northwest, where it could be rain
free Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday will be active days as a couple of
upper level disturbances swing through. The upper high well to our
east now will try to move back west late in the week and next
weekend with a gradual diminishing of storm coverage and intensity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
Tonight and Monday the deep upper level trough over the western US
will form a closed upper level low pressure system that will migrate
northeastward across the northern Rockies.  This will tilt the
monsoon moisture plume over NM along a SW-NE axis and allow drier
air over the northwest third of the forecast area. Strengthening
southwest flow within the moisture plume will interact with the high
terrain of the northern, central and south central mountains
resulting in orographically enhance precipitation tonight. Thus, we
will continue our Flash Flood Watch until 5 AM for portions of the
central mountain chain, while the Watch for western areas looks
alright to expire at 9 PM.

On Monday, a broad SW-NE oriented moisture plume will favor
locations east of the continental divide for showers and
thunderstorms, some with locally heavy rainfall.  The flash flood
risk looks to continue for some areas Monday, especially along and
southeast of a Hermits Peak to Black Fire line.  Will let the night
shift consider extending the Flash Flood Watch based on fresh model
guidance and updated information on where the soils are saturated
from today's rainfall. It does look like the flash flood risk may
persist through Monday night over the south central mountains and
adjacent high plains. With all the moisture in place, high
temperatures should vary from a few to around 11 degrees below
normal on Monday.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
The very active pattern will continue Tuesday and Wednesday as a
couple of weak disturbances move north from Mexico, helped along by
the counter-clockwise motion from a big upper low along the west
coast. Copious amounts of rain, combined with previous rain to this
point, will likely cause flash flooding, especially on the burn
scars, where debris flows are possible. The big upper high over the
middle of the country will move back west toward NM late this week
through the weekend. The daily rounds of convection will gradually
lessen in coverage and intensity from Thursday through the weekend.
High temperatures will be well below to below normal the next few
days, before approaching normal next weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The rich and early plume of monsoon moisture will tilt to more of a
SW-NE orientation tonight through Monday night. Locally heavy
rainfall is expected as PWATs near the plume axis vary around 100%
to 200% of normal for this time of year. Microburst winds and
lightning will be a concern for fire suppression operations, as well
as flash flooding within and below burn scars. After a downtick in
convection over northwest areas Monday, the monsoon plume is
forecast to build back over northwest areas while remaining over
central and eastern areas. Locally heavy rainfall may become the
most widespread on Tuesday as a cooling disturbance works its way
north and northeastward across the forecast area. A low pressure
system on the CA coast will work with the Great Plains high to keep a
rich monsoon moisture plume going through Wednesday. The plume is
then forecast to take on a more traditional orientation Thursday
through Friday as it straddles western and north central areas with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and
evening. A moist backdoor front is then forecast to dive
southwestward through the forecast area Saturday through Sunday
invigorating showers and storms over eastern areas while the west
remains active.

With all the moisture in place high temperatures will remain a few
to several degrees below normal, except for some near and above
normal readings along the eastern border of the forecast area
Wednesday through Saturday

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will move toward the
northeast at 15 to 30 KT this afternoon and tonight. Some storms will
produce locally heavy rainfall with mountain obscurations and wet
microbursts. Erratic wind gusts up to 45 kt possible from stronger
cells. The monsoon plume will begin to tilt toward the northeast with
lingering showers into Monday morning mainly east of the Rio Grand
Valley.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  54  81  54  83 /  20   0   0  20
Dulce...........................  44  79  42  78 /  60  10  10  40
Cuba............................  52  78  52  71 /  60  20  20  70
Gallup..........................  47  83  49  81 /  10   5   5  50
El Morro........................  52  79  53  74 /  20  20  10  60
Grants..........................  49  82  52  75 /  40  20  20  70
Quemado.........................  53  81  55  76 /  20  30  20  80
Magdalena.......................  60  77  59  68 /  50  50  40  90
Datil...........................  55  76  55  69 /  40  50  30  90
Reserve.........................  47  87  49  81 /  20  30  20  80
Glenwood........................  62  89  62  83 /  20  20  20  80
Chama...........................  42  73  41  71 /  70  20  20  60
Los Alamos......................  57  77  59  67 /  60  30  20  80
Pecos...........................  55  77  55  65 /  60  40  30  90
Cerro/Questa....................  45  75  45  67 /  50  20  20  70
Red River.......................  43  71  42  62 /  60  30  20  80
Angel Fire......................  41  71  39  61 /  60  40  20  80
Taos............................  50  79  50  70 /  50  20  20  70
Mora............................  49  77  49  63 /  60  40  30  90
Espanola........................  58  84  58  75 /  50  30  20  80
Santa Fe........................  57  77  59  66 /  60  40  30  90
Santa Fe Airport................  55  80  56  70 /  60  30  20  80
Albuquerque Foothills...........  63  84  63  73 /  60  40  30  90
Albuquerque Heights.............  61  84  62  74 /  60  30  30  90
Albuquerque Valley..............  60  86  62  75 /  50  30  30  90
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  62  84  63  74 /  60  30  20  90
Belen...........................  60  85  60  75 /  50  40  30  90
Bernalillo......................  61  86  63  76 /  60  30  20  90
Bosque Farms....................  58  86  59  75 /  50  40  30  90
Corrales........................  61  86  62  75 /  60  30  20  90
Los Lunas.......................  60  86  61  75 /  50  40  30  90
Placitas........................  61  81  63  71 /  60  40  20  90
Rio Rancho......................  61  85  63  75 /  60  30  20  90
Socorro.........................  64  87  63  76 /  40  50  30  90
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  76  59  64 /  60  40  30  90
Tijeras.........................  57  78  57  68 /  60  40  30  90
Edgewood........................  54  79  54  68 /  60  50  30  90
Moriarty/Estancia...............  52  80  51  69 /  60  50  40  90
Clines Corners..................  53  76  54  65 /  50  50  40  90
Mountainair.....................  55  79  55  67 /  50  50  40  90
Gran Quivira....................  56  79  56  69 /  50  60  50 100
Carrizozo.......................  62  80  60  75 /  40  60  50  90
Ruidoso.........................  55  73  55  69 /  60  80  60  80
Capulin.........................  56  79  55  68 /  30  30  20  80
Raton...........................  55  84  54  71 /  30  30  10  70
Springer........................  57  84  56  70 /  30  30  20  80
Las Vegas.......................  55  78  54  65 /  50  50  30  90
Clayton.........................  63  86  63  81 /  20  20  20  60
Roy.............................  60  82  60  73 /  30  40  20  80
Conchas.........................  65  89  65  81 /  40  40  30  80
Santa Rosa......................  63  85  63  76 /  40  50  40  80
Tucumcari.......................  67  92  66  88 /  30  30  30  60
Clovis..........................  64  89  64  88 /  20  30  30  30
Portales........................  65  91  65  91 /  10  20  30  30
Fort Sumner.....................  65  90  65  86 /  30  50  40  60
Roswell.........................  70  94  69  92 /  20  40  50  50
Picacho.........................  61  83  60  80 /  40  60  60  70
Elk.............................  57  81  57  79 /  50  60  60  70

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
NMZ204-206>208-211-241.

Flood Watch through late tonight for the following zones...
NMZ214-215-217-226.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
357 PM MDT SUN JUN 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             CUBERO                  35.09N 107.52W
06/19/2022  E1.00 INCH       CIBOLA             NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            0.8 RAIN, 24 MPH WIND, TEMP DROPPED 10
            DEGREES.

&&

ANM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
403 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

NMZ204-211-192230-
Northwest Highlands-Jemez Mountains-
403 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN LOS
ALAMOS, SOUTH CENTRAL RIO ARRIBA AND NORTHEASTERN SANDOVAL COUNTIES
THROUGH 430 PM MDT...

At 402 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Fenton Lake State Park, or 16 miles south of Cuba,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cuba, Jemez Springs, Fenton Lake State Park, Jemez State Monument,
Gallina and La Jara.

This includes Highway 550 between Mile Markers 42 and 59, near Mile
Marker 61, and between Mile Markers 64 and 65.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3618 10662 3617 10665 3617 10666 3615 10665
      3617 10659 3597 10627 3567 10687 3577 10706
      3623 10688 3624 10686 3625 10687 3628 10686
      3631 10683
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 215DEG 29KT 3579 10689

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
410 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

NMZ234-236-237-192245-
Roosevelt County-Quay County-De Baca County-
410 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
ROOSEVELT, EAST CENTRAL DE BACA AND SOUTHWESTERN QUAY COUNTIES
THROUGH 445 PM MDT...

At 410 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms near
Tolar, or 17 miles east of Fort Sumner, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
House, Ragland, Tolar, Mcalister and Forrest.

This includes Highway 60 near Mile Marker 346, and between Mile
Markers 348 and 349.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3469 10368 3469 10370 3466 10370 3443 10388
      3451 10408 3497 10396 3485 10356
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 203DEG 19KT 3454 10394

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
416 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

NMZ206-207-219-192245-
West Central Highlands-West Central Mountains-Middle Rio Grande
Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
416 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN CIBOLA,
EAST CENTRAL MCKINLEY, SOUTH CENTRAL SANDOVAL AND BERNALILLO COUNTIES
THROUGH 445 PM MDT...

At 415 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Marquez, or 13 miles northeast of Laguna Pueblo,
moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marquez, Seboyeta and Paguate.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3507 10730 3526 10744 3554 10713 3519 10683
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 241DEG 19KT 3521 10724

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
445 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

NMZ204-207-219-192315-
West Central Highlands-Northwest Highlands-Middle Rio Grande
Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
445 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SANDOVAL AND BERNALILLO COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM MDT...

At 444 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles east of Marquez, or 23 miles northeast of Laguna Pueblo, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Western Rio Rancho.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent dangerous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this
storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a
safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3564 10699 3527 10672 3517 10712 3536 10727
      3540 10725 3542 10723 3541 10721 3545 10721
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 239DEG 20KT 3529 10709

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

12