Flash Flood Warning 197, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1122 AM MDT Tue Aug 9 2022

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Scattered to numerous showers and storms will once again plague
western and central NM, with the best chances for impacts at KGUP,
KABQ/KAEG and KSAF terminals with lower coverage of storms across
the eastern plains. Visibility and ceilings may briefly drop into
the MVFR category in heavy precipitation. Wet microburst winds are
also possible with stronger activity. Expect convection to slowly
wind down after sunset, although light showers and isolated storms
may persist after 06Z for locations along/south of U.S. Highway 60.
DPorter

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...246 AM MDT Tue Aug 9 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Storm coverage will be highest today before slowly trending downward
through the rest of the week. Some storms today will produce heavy
rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, especially on recent burn
scars. Though storm coverage will lessen this week, some storms will
remain capable of heavy rainfall. Temperatures will remain at or
below normal for much of the work week, but will trend up this
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
We have issued a Flood Watch this afternoon through midnight tonight
for all the recent significant burn scars.

The center of the 500 mb high pressure is along the Utah/Colorado
border. It will drift slowly east to northern central CO today and
remain there through Wednesday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms
will are expected today and Wednesday, with the favored areas the
central and western mountains. With a generally east to west flow
aloft, the eastern plains will see the least storms. Coverage in
west and central ares will be scattered to numerous, with isolated
to scattered storms in the east. Highs today will be a few degrees
lower than Monday, and a little lower on Wednesday, with most high
temperatures below normal both days.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A disturbance rounding the 597 dam 5H high will move over southeast
NM Wednesday night into Thursday, then models suggest this feature
will stall over southern or southeast NM through much of Friday. With
moist low level southeasterly flow in place, this feature will aid
in thunderstorm development across the southeast plains Wednesday
night with additional storms expected in this area through Thursday.
Meanwhile, drier air aloft will be filtering into northeast NM on
Thursday, limiting convection there, and western NM will remain
active with monsoon moisture in place. Most storms on Thursday will
move toward the west around 5 to 10 mph.

The upper high will inch eastward over Colorado Thursday through
Saturday. Drier air aloft will continue to filter into eastern NM,
thus focusing storms more and more across western NM each day. Thus,
overall storm coverage will lower as the monsoon plume shifts over
western NM and AZ. Though the upper high will weaken somewhat going
into Sunday and Monday, the center will shift toward northeast NM.
This will focus the moisture plume more squarely over AZ. With less
convection expected and the upper high nearby, an increase in
temperatures is expected. One fly in the ointment may be a back door
front that oozes into northeast NM Monday, potentially increasing
storm coverage, but models are at odds with how far south this front
will get. CHJ/34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure aloft will be centered over Colorado for the next few
days, getting a little stronger. It will drift southeast this
weekend through the middle of next week, reaching northeast NM.
With this pattern, we will see a slow decrease in showers and
thunderstorms, especially on the eastern plains, due to a general
east to west flow aloft. Today and Wednesday though will be active
with widespread showers and storms, some heavy rain, and possible
flash flooding. This will be especially true on the recent burn
scars. High temperatures will gradually increase to near normal by
the weekend. CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for the following zones...
NMZ208-211-214-215-226-241.

&&

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