Flash Flood Warning 196, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1207 PM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Today should be the most convectively active day of the week with
numerous showers and thunderstorms over northern and western areas,
and scattered-to-numerous activity elsewhere, except scattered-to-
isolated cells over the Four Corners and southeast plains. Storms
will move in variable directions at speeds under 10 mph. Some storms
will produce locally heavy rainfall with wet microbursts that could
exceed 45 kt. Small hail will also be possible from stronger storms.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms may linger over central areas
after midnight, with scattered-to-isolated cells over south central
and southeast areas.

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.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Higher and more widespread chances for rain along with cooler
temperatures are expected today. Locally heavy rain which could lead
to flash flooding is possible over portions of northeast and
southwest New Mexico. Scattered to widespread showers and storms are
expected again Tuesday. Thereafter, chances for showers and storms
taper down, especially over eastern New Mexico, as high pressure
aloft moves from the central Rockies closer to New Mexico and
expands over the region. High temperatures will be near to a few
degrees below normal through Friday, then warm above normal by
Sunday.

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.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

While the upper high builds over the Four Corners, a backdoor cold
front, aided by convective outflows, is slowing shifting southward
across the plains early this morning. There is a notable increase in
moisture behind the front, and this will be the main impetus for
increased shower and thunderstorm coverage today. Despite ongoing
convection early this morning, it is expected that there will be
plenty of destabilization later this morning and early this
afternoon for another round of heavy rain producing storms, and some
breaks in the cloud cover is already noted on satellite imagery.
Winds behind the front will veer around to the east or southeast
this afternoon, allowing for upslope flow onto the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. However, even ahead of the front, southeasterly low level
synoptic flow will return which will not only increase moisture
elsewhere, but will result in some weak to moderate upslope flow
along the remainder of the Central Mountain Chain and across the
western mountains as well.  Nonetheless, models are indicating the
heaviest and most widespread precipitation this afternoon and
evening will be across north central and northeast New Mexico. Of
particular concern is the Hermits Peak Calf Canyon burn scar where
some models are suggesting greater than an inch of rain, with at
least small probabilities of 2 inches of rain. If rainfall of this
magnitude occurs, combined with storm motions generally toward the
northeast in this area (albeit slow), impacts may be a bit further
downstream than what is covered in zones 214 and 215 alone. Thus,
have opted to issue a Flood Watch for not only most of the burn
scars, but also areas a bit further downstream in northeast NM. This
area (the I-25 corridor) will also have it's own possibility of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding given the moisture, lift and slow
storm motion.

Storms will trend downward late this evening with the focus for
storms shifting further south with time. On Tuesday, the upper high
is forecast to strengthen somewhat and be centered across southwest
Colorado. Plenty of moisture will remain for another round of
thunderstorms. In general, precipitation chances will be less across
eastern NM than today, though a weak boundary across the northeast
may help spark some development. Otherwise, the focus will be across
the high terrain of central and western NM. Storms should generally
move toward the west and northwest, increasing potential for some
lower elevation rain by the late afternoon.

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LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

High temperatures will be near to slightly below normal through
Thursday as the state will be to the south of the center of high
pressure circulation. Showers and storms through Thursday will be
focused over the western and central high terrain. Potential for
locally heavy rain with any storm will continue.

Forecast PWAT values diminish by Friday as the upper high continues
to dominate the central and southern Rockies and adjacent plains
through early next week. Showers and storms will be fewer in number
over the east, while best chances will be confined to locations west
of the Rio Grande Valley Friday and Saturday.  High temperatures
warm to a few degrees above normal Sunday and Monday. Early to mid
next week, the GFS looks more like the ECMWF than it did 24 hour
ago, diverting the stronger westerly flow well into the northern
Rockies, if not southern Canada.

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.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns outside of burn scar flash flooding and a
few thunderstorm wind gusts are expected for the next week.  A
backdoor front will increase precipitation chances for much of
eastern NM today, while central and western areas remain active. The
upper high will be over the Four Corners today before shifting over
Colorado for much of the week. Daily rounds of thunderstorm activity
are expected, though storm chances will trend downward through the
week. Storm motions today will be toward the west and northwest
south of I-40, toward the north and northeast near the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains, and rather erratic elsewhere. Through the week,
storm motions will generally be toward the west and northwest.
Temperatures will remain at or below normal through Thursday before
trending upward Friday into the weekend.

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.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for the following zones...
NMZ208-211-214-215-227>229-241.

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