Flash Flood Warning 173, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
332 PM MDT Thu Aug 4 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

Additional thunderstorm development may lead to flash flooding again
this afternoon and evening. Areas with previous burn scars from
wildfires earlier this year, areas that previously flooded, and
locations across elevated terrain are the most likely locations to
see flash flooding. Otherwise, thunderstorms remain a possibility
into early next week. Slightly cooler temperatures are also a
possibility with temperatures becoming closer to normal for this time
of year.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

A slower start for the development of showers and thunderstorms,
compared to yesterday. But the convection is firing up now over the
northern, western and the south central mountains. Movement is
slow and erratic, with high pressure centered over northeast NM.
This will result in high rainfall totals and the potential for flash
flooding, especially on recent burn scars. Storms will continue well
into the night, with showers linger past daybreak in the north and
southwest.

The upper high pressure area will become centered over southwest KS
by late Friday. It will be another active day with widespread
showers and thunderstorms. At least the storms should move a little
faster than today. But, heavy rain remains a concern with flash
flooding a possibility.

The Flash Flood Watch will remain as is, except we will extend the
watch through midnight Friday night.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

After a brief lull in the thunderstorm activity on Saturday morning,
there’s another potential round of thunderstorms on the horizon for
Saturday afternoon. Much of the activity will be focused on higher
terrain in the northern and western portions of New Mexico. Flash
flooding remains a possibility as locally heavy rainfall may runoff
across areas previously soaked with rain and across areas with burn
scars in place. Storm motion will likely be slow moving and erratic,
which will further increase the potential for runoff to occur. Look
for small hail to also be possible in the stronger thunderstorms that
do develop. Additional thunderstorm activity will remain a feature in
the forecast through early next week before a decrease in coverage
occurs for mid week. The high pressure will generally move off to the
east and sit closer to the TX and OK Panhandles. A decent amount of
moisture will remain across the region as the monsoon pattern will
continue on despite a shift this high pressure system. Otherwise,
temperatures are expected to be slightly lower than previous days.
Expect highs to be closer to normal when compared to earlier this
week. Overall, little has changed from the previous long term
forecast from earlier this morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The monsoon pattern will continue through the next week. There will
be daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms, some producing heavy
rain, which could result in flash flooding, especially on and near
recent burn scars, where debris flows are also possible. Storms
into tonight will be slow-moving, which will enhance the potential
for heavy rain amounts and flash flooding. High pressure aloft will
exit NM tonight and move slowly northeast into southwest Kansas.
Storm motions will be faster, decreasing the flash flood threat
some. The typical monsoon pattern will occur Saturday with moisture
streaming north out of Mexico. Storms will favor the west and
central areas. The upper high will build back west toward NM Sunday
and become established over CO next week. It will strengthen some as
well, diminishing the coverage of the storms over the north and
east.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

Widespread showers and tstms with isold MVFR cigs/vsbys developing
this afternoon and continuing well into tonight. Showers and a few
thunderstorms will continue through the overnight hours. Mountains
becoming occasionally obscd in sct-nmrs showers and tstms this
afternoon and evening. Movement will be slow and variable across
the forecast area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  67  92  67  91 /  40  20  30  30
Dulce...........................  56  88  56  86 /  50  50  40  70
Cuba............................  60  86  60  85 /  40  50  60  60
Gallup..........................  60  88  61  86 /  50  40  40  60
El Morro........................  57  82  58  82 /  60  70  50  80
Grants..........................  58  86  57  85 /  60  70  60  70
Quemado.........................  59  83  58  83 /  50  80  60  80
Magdalena.......................  62  85  62  85 /  50  50  50  50
Datil...........................  58  82  58  81 /  50  70  50  70
Reserve.........................  58  89  58  88 /  40  80  50  80
Glenwood........................  66  93  66  92 /  30  70  50  70
Chama...........................  54  81  53  80 /  60  70  40  80
Los Alamos......................  61  81  61  81 /  50  60  60  70
Pecos...........................  59  85  60  84 /  50  60  50  70
Cerro/Questa....................  46  83  46  82 /  50  70  30  90
Red River.......................  49  77  48  76 /  50  80  30  90
Angel Fire......................  48  77  48  75 /  50  70  30  80
Taos............................  56  84  56  82 /  50  70  30  80
Mora............................  54  81  55  80 /  50  70  40  70
Espanola........................  64  90  63  89 /  40  60  40  70
Santa Fe........................  62  85  62  84 /  50  60  50  70
Santa Fe Airport................  61  87  61  86 /  50  60  50  70
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  91  68  90 /  40  50  50  60
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  93  68  93 /  40  40  50  50
Albuquerque Valley..............  68  95  68  94 /  40  40  50  50
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  68  94  68  93 /  40  50  50  50
Belen...........................  67  95  66  94 /  40  40  50  40
Bernalillo......................  66  96  68  95 /  40  50  50  60
Bosque Farms....................  66  94  66  93 /  40  40  50  50
Corrales........................  67  96  68  94 /  40  50  50  50
Los Lunas.......................  67  94  67  93 /  40  40  50  50
Placitas........................  65  91  66  90 /  40  50  50  60
Rio Rancho......................  67  94  68  93 /  40  50  50  50
Socorro.........................  68  96  67  95 /  40  40  40  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  83  62  82 /  50  60  50  60
Tijeras.........................  62  87  63  86 /  50  50  50  60
Edgewood........................  59  87  59  86 /  50  50  50  60
Moriarty/Estancia...............  57  88  58  88 /  50  50  50  50
Clines Corners..................  59  84  58  83 /  60  60  40  50
Mountainair.....................  60  86  61  85 /  40  50  40  50
Gran Quivira....................  61  87  61  87 /  40  50  40  40
Carrizozo.......................  66  88  65  89 /  40  50  30  40
Ruidoso.........................  59  81  58  80 /  40  60  20  40
Capulin.........................  59  85  60  84 /  50  50  10  60
Raton...........................  58  88  58  86 /  60  60  20  70
Springer........................  61  89  60  89 /  60  60  20  60
Las Vegas.......................  59  84  58  84 /  60  60  40  60
Clayton.........................  65  91  67  93 /  50  20  10  10
Roy.............................  62  88  62  88 /  60  40  20  40
Conchas.........................  69  96  68  95 /  70  30  20  20
Santa Rosa......................  66  92  66  92 /  60  40  20  30
Tucumcari.......................  70  98  71  98 /  50  20  10   5
Clovis..........................  68  95  68  95 /  50  20  10   5
Portales........................  69  97  69  96 /  40  20  10   0
Fort Sumner.....................  70  96  69  95 /  50  20  10  10
Roswell.........................  74  99  72  98 /  30  20  10   5
Picacho.........................  66  93  64  92 /  30  50  10  20
Elk.............................  61  89  61  88 /  30  40  10  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday evening for the following zones...
NMZ208-211-212-214-215-218-222-223-226-228-229-233-239.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
229 PM MDT Thu Aug 4 2022

NMZ238-042100-
Chaves County Plains-
229 PM MDT Thu Aug 4 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CHAVES
COUNTY THROUGH 300 PM MDT...

At 228 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southeast of Hagerman, or 19 miles northeast of Artesia, moving
northwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Chaves
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

LAT...LON 3320 10422 3307 10401 3296 10407 3296 10436
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 115DEG 5KT 3302 10414

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

44

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
254 PM MDT THU AUG 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 E TAJIQUE             34.76N 106.22W
08/03/2022                   TORRANCE           NM   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STANDING WATER ON ROADWAY. CREWS ARE OUT
            REMOVING WATER AND DEBRIS FROM THE ROADWAY.

&&

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