Flash Flood Warning 164, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
251 PM MDT Wed Aug 3 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

Thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening with locally
heavy rainfall potentially leading to flash flooding. This is
especially true for locations that have burn scars from previous
wildfires already in place. Otherwise, thunderstorms will remain a
possibility through much of the next 7 days along with slightly
cooler, and closer to normal, temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday Night)...

The upper level high pressure center remains over northwest NM this
afternoon. A back door cold front has made it south to Clovis and
west to Las Vegas and Clines Corners. It will spill into the Rio
Grande Valley late afternoon or early evening, and continue south
through Roswell. It is certainly more active than Tuesday was,
especially over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and their east
slopes. This is courtesy of renewed low level moisture behind the
cold front. This added moisture will showers and thunderstorms going
through much of the night, mainly over the eastern plains and
southwest mountains.

Thursday is going to be a very active day with widespread showers
and thunderstorms. The upper high will move slowly east, to the
northeast portions of the state, or perhaps into the OK and TX
panhandles. Regardless, the added low level moisture from the front
and moisture moving north into western NM will result in showers and
thunderstorms, some containing heavy rain. This will cause flash
flooding, with the recent burn scars the most likely, including
debris flows. The threat of heavy rain will continue into Thursday
night.

We will extend the current Flash Flood Watch through midnight
Thursday night. Additional areas may be added with the night shift
crew, depending on how things pan out the rest of today and tonight.

LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)...

The main highlight of the long term forecast remains the possibility
for flash flooding as an active weather pattern will continue through
the next 7 days. Look for the highest risk of flash flooding to be in
the areas with burn scars left behind by wildfires from earlier this
year. In addition, locations with elevated terrain are the most
likely places to see flash flooding. Otherwise, both long range
models (GFS and ECMWF) show the high pressure shifting slightly
further off to the east across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle to
various degrees. Regardless, as we sit on the edge of this high
pressure, we will continue to see higher levels of moisture across
the region allowing for thunderstorm development. As such, chances
for thunderstorms have largely been left in the forecast through this
weekend for western and central New Mexico. As the high pressure
shifts east, we may see development further east across eastern New
Mexico early next week. Otherwise, high temperatures will generally
see a bit of a decrease from the previous few days. Overall, little
has been changed from the previous long term forecast issuance.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The monsoon will continue in full force through most of the forecast
period. Heavy rain and flash flooding and burn scar debris flows
will be a major concern. The upper high pressure area will remain
over New Mexico into tomorrow, but will move east Friday and
Saturday. The high will try and move back toward NM Sunday and
Monday, eventually parking itself over Colorado or Utah through the
middle of next week. Throughout this period there will be episodes
of heavy rain each afternoon and evening through Monday. The afore
mentioned high pressure area will strengthen some Tuesday and
Wednesday, providing a cap top the convection, especially across the
north.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

A backdoor front will continue moving south through the east this
afternoon, providing a northerly wind shift. Also, replenishing
moisture to increase storm chances along and east of the central
mountain chain this afternoon and evening. Storm initiation will
continue on the high terrain with the most numerous coverage across
the Sangre de Cristos and southwest mountains. Storms will move onto
lower elevation areas as the afternoon progresses. All TAF sites
will have the opportunity to see thunderstorm or shower impacts which
include heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty and erratic winds.
Showers and storms will be slow to taper off and will likely
continue across the plains past 06Z. The front then pushes through
the gaps of the central mountain chain by 00Z this evening, likely
resulting in a moderate east canyon wind at KABQ. Currently, winds
are expected to remain below Airport Weather Warning criteria.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  67  94  67  91 /  10  30  40  30
Dulce...........................  55  89  55  86 /  20  60  60  70
Cuba............................  60  86  59  85 /  20  60  70  50
Gallup..........................  61  89  59  86 /  20  70  60  50
El Morro........................  59  84  57  81 /  30  80  70  70
Grants..........................  59  87  57  85 /  30  70  70  60
Quemado.........................  59  86  58  83 /  50  80  70  80
Magdalena.......................  63  86  62  85 /  40  50  70  50
Datil...........................  59  83  57  81 /  50  70  70  70
Reserve.........................  58  90  58  88 /  50  80  60  80
Glenwood........................  65  93  67  92 /  50  70  60  60
Chama...........................  53  81  53  80 /  30  70  60  70
Los Alamos......................  62  83  61  82 /  40  80  60  60
Pecos...........................  59  83  59  84 /  40  80  60  50
Cerro/Questa....................  45  81  47  82 /  50  80  40  70
Red River.......................  47  75  49  77 /  50  80  50  80
Angel Fire......................  46  75  48  76 /  50  90  50  70
Taos............................  56  83  57  84 /  50  80  50  70
Mora............................  54  78  54  81 /  50  80  50  60
Espanola........................  63  90  63  90 /  30  70  50  60
Santa Fe........................  61  83  62  84 /  40  80  60  60
Santa Fe Airport................  60  87  60  86 /  30  70  60  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  91  67  91 /  30  60  60  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  67  94  67  92 /  30  50  60  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  68  95  67  94 /  30  50  60  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  69  94  67  93 /  30  50  60  40
Belen...........................  67  95  67  94 /  30  50  60  40
Bernalillo......................  68  96  67  95 /  30  60  60  40
Bosque Farms....................  66  94  66  93 /  30  50  60  40
Corrales........................  68  95  67  94 /  30  60  60  40
Los Lunas.......................  67  94  67  93 /  30  50  60  40
Placitas........................  66  91  64  90 /  30  60  60  50
Rio Rancho......................  68  94  67  93 /  30  60  60  40
Socorro.........................  68  96  67  95 /  40  40  60  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  62  83  61  83 /  30  70  60  50
Tijeras.........................  62  87  62  86 /  30  60  60  50
Edgewood........................  59  87  59  86 /  40  70  60  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  58  89  57  88 /  40  60  60  40
Clines Corners..................  59  84  58  84 /  50  60  60  40
Mountainair.....................  61  86  59  85 /  50  60  60  40
Gran Quivira....................  60  88  59  87 /  50  60  60  40
Carrizozo.......................  66  91  64  90 /  50  60  50  40
Ruidoso.........................  59  83  58  81 /  50  70  50  40
Capulin.........................  59  81  59  83 /  60  70  30  40
Raton...........................  59  84  58  88 /  50  80  40  50
Springer........................  61  86  60  89 /  60  80  40  50
Las Vegas.......................  59  82  58  84 /  60  70  60  50
Clayton.........................  67  89  66  91 /  30  40  30  10
Roy.............................  63  85  62  87 /  50  60  50  30
Conchas.........................  69  94  68  95 /  50  50  50  20
Santa Rosa......................  67  91  66  91 /  50  50  50  20
Tucumcari.......................  71  96  69  98 /  40  40  40   5
Clovis..........................  69  94  68  95 /  40  50  30  10
Portales........................  70  96  69  96 /  40  40  30  10
Fort Sumner.....................  70  96  69  96 /  50  40  40  10
Roswell.........................  75 100  74  99 /  40  30  20  10
Picacho.........................  65  93  65  92 /  40  50  40  30
Elk.............................  62  90  61  88 /  40  60  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday evening for the following zones...
NMZ208-211-214-215-226.

&&

40/PO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
109 PM MDT Wed Aug 3 2022

NMZ215-031945-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
109 PM MDT Wed Aug 3 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN SAN
MIGUEL AND SOUTHWESTERN MORA COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM MDT...

At 109 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Gascon, or 7 miles southwest of Mora. This storm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ledoux, Gascon, Tierra Monte, South Carmen and Rociada.

This includes the following highways...
 State Road 94 between Mile Markers 6 and 14.
 State Road 105 between Mile Markers 0 and 7.
 State Road 276 between Mile Markers 0 and 4.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

LAT...LON 3587 10547 3594 10539 3588 10526 3576 10539
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 318DEG 2KT 3588 10540

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
115 PM MDT Wed Aug 3 2022

NMZ214-215-031945-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo
Mountains-
115 PM MDT Wed Aug 3 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN SAN
MIGUEL COUNTY THROUGH 145 PM MDT...

At 115 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of El Porvenir, or 18 miles northwest of Las Vegas.
This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern San
Miguel County.

This includes State Road 283 near Mile Marker 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

LAT...LON 3580 10550 3574 10538 3560 10542 3570 10562
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 030DEG 2KT 3573 10550

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

44

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