Flash Flood Warning 140, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
225 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over TX is building westward, into NM. The
high center will be over the state Sunday, with a 595dm height at
500 mb, about 20dm higher than today. This will trim showers and
thunderstorms some on Sunday. The high will remain over NM through
Wednesday with overall less thunderstorm coverage than recently. The
high will shift east again Thursday. This will open up the monsoon
moisture plume to surge back into NM, mostly for the west and
central areas, from Thursday through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
Despite areas and layers of low and debris clouds this morning, by
late morning thunderstorms had sprouted faster than weeds, although
they tended to initiate over the southwest and south central
mountains where cloud cover was sparser. The upper ridge axis has
slipped a little farther south, allowing for cells to move mainly to
the northeast and even to the east this afternoon. Forecast models
not indicating a repeat of the widespread rainfall event over
portions of northeast/east central New Mexico experienced last
night, although there is a hint west to northwest flow over far
northeast New Mexico may result in a smaller cluster drifting into
that part of the CWA this evening. Therefore no changes to the
existing Flood Watch, which is in effect until midnight tonight.

An upper high center of circulation is forecast to be located over
New Mexico Sunday and Sunday night, which may result in a slight
downturn in activity and highs a few degrees warmer. The mountains
and northeast New Mexico look to be the favored for showers and
storms during this time. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer
than normal, while highs Sunday will be within a few degrees of
normal.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
With high pressure overhead, showers and thunderstorms will be a
bit less in coverage and intensity Monday through Wednesday than
currently. But low and mid levels of the atmosphere will remain
moist, so the potential for heavy rain and flash flooding will
continue, just not as often as currently the case. The high will
build east again Thursday, and stay there through next weekend. That
will bring about a new surge of monsoon moisture, at least into west
and central areas. Temperatures will gradually trend up through
Wednesday, climbing to normal or above. Then temperatures will head
down Thursday through next weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Cell motion through tonight will be generally to the northeast
although cells may move from west to east closer to the Colorado
border. Wetting and even torrential rains from thunderstorms will
continue through next week, with storms initiating over the higher
terrain by the early afternoon and then moving into the lower
elevations. Cell motions will subtly change with time as models
indicate the upper high center will end up over western New
Mexico/eastern Arizona by Tuesday, then slowly drift back to Kansas
late next week. This would allow another and reinforcing surge of
moisture into the region. Highs will generally be within a few
degrees of normal and areas of fair to poor ventilation are forecast
each day, but especially Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Mts occasionally obscd. Isold MVFR cigs persisting over portions of
central and ern NM at 17Z to improve by 20Z. Upper ridge axis
stretched from west central to se NM. Convection developing over the
wrn mts at 17Z to become more wdsprd through 00Z with cell motion
generally to the ne. Brief MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys as well as variable
gusty winds possible in the stronger storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  62  87  64  89 /  40  30  20  30
Dulce...........................  53  82  53  85 /  50  60  40  60
Cuba............................  56  81  57  83 /  50  40  40  50
Gallup..........................  56  83  57  85 /  50  50  40  40
El Morro........................  55  78  55  80 /  50  50  40  40
Grants..........................  55  81  55  84 /  60  50  40  50
Quemado.........................  57  80  57  83 /  50  60  40  50
Magdalena.......................  60  81  61  84 /  40  60  30  40
Datil...........................  56  78  56  80 /  40  50  30  50
Reserve.........................  59  85  60  89 /  40  50  30  40
Glenwood........................  65  90  66  93 /  40  40  30  40
Chama...........................  50  76  50  78 /  50  70  40  70
Los Alamos......................  58  79  59  80 /  50  60  40  60
Pecos...........................  57  81  58  83 /  40  50  30  60
Cerro/Questa....................  50  78  50  80 /  50  60  40  70
Red River.......................  46  71  44  75 /  50  70  40  70
Angel Fire......................  47  73  45  75 /  50  60  40  70
Taos............................  54  80  54  83 /  50  60  40  70
Mora............................  53  78  52  80 /  50  60  40  60
Espanola........................  54  85  55  88 /  40  40  30  60
Santa Fe........................  58  82  59  83 /  40  40  30  60
Santa Fe Airport................  58  84  58  85 /  40  40  30  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  86  66  89 /  50  40  30  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  88  67  91 /  40  30  30  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  61  90  62  93 /  40  30  30  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  65  88  67  91 /  40  30  30  40
Belen...........................  66  90  68  93 /  40  30  30  30
Bernalillo......................  63  90  64  93 /  50  30  30  40
Bosque Farms....................  63  90  64  92 /  40  30  30  30
Corrales........................  64  90  65  93 /  40  30  30  40
Los Lunas.......................  65  90  66  92 /  40  30  30  30
Placitas........................  62  86  63  88 /  50  40  30  50
Rio Rancho......................  65  88  66  92 /  40  30  30  40
Socorro.........................  66  91  68  95 /  30  30  20  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  59  81  60  82 /  50  50  30  50
Tijeras.........................  60  84  61  85 /  50  40  30  50
Edgewood........................  58  83  59  86 /  50  40  30  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  56  85  57  87 /  40  30  30  40
Clines Corners..................  56  82  58  83 /  40  30  30  40
Mountainair.....................  58  83  60  86 /  30  30  20  40
Gran Quivira....................  60  85  61  87 /  30  20  20  40
Carrizozo.......................  65  89  66  91 /  30  20  20  30
Ruidoso.........................  58  80  59  82 /  30  40  20  40
Capulin.........................  56  82  56  83 /  50  30  20  30
Raton...........................  56  85  55  87 /  50  40  20  40
Springer........................  56  83  55  88 /  50  40  20  50
Las Vegas.......................  55  81  56  84 /  40  50  30  60
Clayton.........................  63  89  64  90 /  60  30  20  10
Roy.............................  60  86  60  87 /  60  40  30  40
Conchas.........................  63  91  64  96 /  40  30  30  30
Santa Rosa......................  66  92  67  93 /  30  20  30  30
Tucumcari.......................  70  98  70  98 /  30  20  30  20
Clovis..........................  68  96  69  96 /  20  10  30  20
Portales........................  70  98  70  98 /  20  10  20  10
Fort Sumner.....................  70  97  70  97 /  20  20  30  20
Roswell.........................  72 100  72 101 /  10   5  10  20
Picacho.........................  65  92  66  93 /  20  20  10  30
Elk.............................  61  87  63  90 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for the following zones...
NMZ201>208-210>219-221>224-226>233-239-241.

&&

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