Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1207 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Showers and thunderstorms will favor the central mountain chain
westward this afternoon and tonight with motions toward the north
and northeast at 20-25 KT. A mix of wet and dry microbursts are
expected with erratic wind gusts potentially reaching 45 KT. Wetter
microbursts will be found along and west of the continental divide
with the mixed bag of wet and dry microbursts more along the central
mountain chain. Storms may start out isolated, but they will tend
cluster increasingly as the afternoon and evening progress.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...233 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Monsoon season is underway, and daily rounds of thunderstorms are in
the forecast over the next week. The moisture plume remains focused
across western New Mexico today, thus today's crop of storms will
favor areas along and west of the central mountain chain. However,
that moisture plume moves farther east Sunday and into early next
week, allowing for thunderstorm coverage to become more widespread.
The threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be an
increasing concern each day, especially on or near recent burn scars.
The moisture plume then shifts back towards the west by the middle of
next week, likely keeping the highest thunderstorm chances focused
across western and central New Mexico through the end of the work
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A large area of light rain with brief isolated moderate rain
continues to move north northeast between the Continental Divide and
the Rio Grande Valley at this time, although it was starting to
decrease in coverage. Patchy fog is likely early this morning but
don't think it will last for very long or have a significant impact,
therefore will leave out of the grids. Today looks to be similar to
Friday with placement of the highest pops along the Continental
Divide this afternoon then spreading into the Rio Grande Valley.
It's interesting and notable that dew points over eastern NM were
mostly in the 30s as of this writing and they don't increase much
until late tonight and Sunday when strong southerly winds advect the
40s and 50s down in the Permian Basin northward. At the same time,
the theta e ridge axis tilts a bit to the northeast, so the central
mountain chain and adjacent highlands should see more activity
Sunday while the far northwest corner of the state may see a little
less. Today's steering flow will be mainly to the north around 20 to
25 mph and Sunday's will be from the south and southwest to the
north and northeast around 20 to 25 mph but any repeated rounds of
rain on sensitive areas could result in flash flooding. Highs today
and Sunday will be below normal central and west and near normal
east. Lows tonight will be warmer than normal.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
By Sunday night and into Monday, a highly amplified pattern takes
shape across the CONUS as the H5 high remains centered over the SE US
while a PacNW trough carves its place over NV and OR. The moisture
plume - which has been focused across the western half of the state -
will begin to push eastward as that PacNW trough tracks across the
northern Rockies on Monday. As such, thunderstorm chances will
increase across the east, and widespread thunderstorms will be
expected Monday and especially on Tuesday. PWATs will remain healthy
with values near to above an inch areawide. PWATs at KABQ may even be
reaching daily records with model guidance depicting a PWAT of
around 1.25" which would beat the 00Z daily record for Tuesday of
1.15". This above normal moisture will also lend its hand to heavy
rainfall, and the potential for flash flooding, especially on the
burn scars, will only increase in the Monday to Tuesday time frame.

With the PacNW trough ejecting into Canada Monday, the H5 high will
begin to make its way back towards the west, and by Wednesday, it
looks to be centered over OK and TX. This will likely steer the
moisture plume back towards the west with some drying across the
east. Sufficient moisture will still stay in place for at least
western and central NM to allow for the daily rounds of thunderstorms
to continue.

15

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
New Mexico will be squeezed between an upper trough to our west and
an upper ridge of high pressure to our east, allowing subtropical
moisture to continue streaming from south to north over the state.
Storms will be most active during the afternoons and evenings over
western New Mexico today with the focus shifting toward the central
mountain chain Sunday and Monday. Most of the the eastern plains may
stay relatively dry today and tonight before storms start to inch
into that part of the state. Cell motion today will be from south to
north but more to the northeast Sunday and Monday. Potential for
locally heavy rain may lead to flash flooding and debris flows
especially for sensitive areas such as burn scars.

The weather pattern doesn't change much until later next week when
the upper ridge may build back over New Mexico, cutting off the tap
of moisture. However, there will still be enough moisture in place
for daily rounds of showers and storms. High temperatures will be
below normal until late next week when they warm to near normal.
Lows will generally be near to above normal. Strongest winds will be
associated to convection the next several days, although south to
southwest winds over the eastern plains may gust to around 35 to 40
mph during the afternoons today through Monday.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&