Flash Flood Warning 112, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
548 PM MDT Tue Jul 26 2022

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will favor northern
and western areas through this evening with scattered to isolated
activity farther south and east, except for little or no convection
on the southeast plains. Most of the activity will move toward the
northwest to northeast at 5-15 mph. Locally heavy rainfall will be
capable of producing wet microbursts with erratic wind gusts to 45
kt. After midnight convection will be more isolated and favor
locations north of I-40. Another widespread round of showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued by National Weather Service El Paso
TX/Santa Teresa NM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Monsoonal weather pattern will continue across the area providing
daily thunderstorm chances to much of the state. East Central and
Southeast parts of the area will see the lowest chances while the
northern and western parts of the state will see the highest chances
for storms. Heavy rain and flash flooding will be the main concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A broad low-amplitude ridge covers much over the southeast CONUS with
a monsoonal tap rotating around its western periphery with the focus
extending from AZ curving NE from the Gila wilderness to the NE
corner of the state. An UL disturbance was also noted across Northern
Chihuahua with most of its influence across Southern NM, but it does
appear to be causing some deformation across the forecast area, with
storms beginning to develop across this deformation, especially
across higher terrain. Dry air has wrapped into this low limiting
precip chances across much of the east central into the southeast
portion of the state.

After sunset, thunderstorm coverage will begin to wane with most
locations dry by midnight. Lingering deformation and small scale
disturbances aloft may keep a few storms ongoing, however.
Additionally, CAMs are suggesting a lingering outflow/front may help
keep storms ongoing across the NE portion of the state. Otherwise,
as we go into Wednesday, conditions look quite similar to what is
seen for today (Tuesday). Moisture will continue to draw up around
the high with the monsoonal tap more or less over the same location
as Tuesday. Thus, expected scattered to numerous mountain storms with
isolated to scattered lowland storms. Heavy rain and flash flooding
will continue to be a concern, especially across burn scar areas.
Further east into the Plains, storm chances will once again be
limited to the northeast quarter of the state with chances waning
farther south. Highs will remain hot well into the 90s to near 100.
Roswell looks to add another tally to its 100 degree total.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
By Thursday, the high looks to expand westward and may push some
drier air into the Plains. This drier air will mainly be at mid and
upper levels as surface dew points continue largely unchanged. Areas
along and east of the Rio Grande, conditions will change very little,
looking much like today and Wednesday. Of more notable interest,
beginning Thursday evening, a cool front will begin slowly pushing
south from CO, hanging up along the front range. This boundary will
likely serve to focus and maintain convection toward the CO border.
This front looks to retreat back north throughout the day Friday
before making another southward push later in the afternoon and
evening, aided by convection. Elsewhere, storm chances will largely
remain unchanged.

After Friday, the aforementioned front stops being a player in the
weather, and then the forecast becomes rather static with little
day-to-day variability. The eastern portion of the ridge becomes
ill-defined while a new area of high pressure begins to form over
NV. This will wedge the monsoonal plume in essentially an east-west
alignment across the CWA. Temperatures won't be as hot, but the
continue storm pattern will continue largely unchanged.

BROWN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No significant fire concerns are expected throughout the period as
monsoonal moisture continues across the area. Each day will feature
scattered to numerous mountain with isolated to scattered lowland
storms. Further east across the Plains, storms will be mainly limited
to the northeast while further south across the Pecos and toward
Texas, highs will reach well into the 90s with min RH values into the
upper teens. Storms will be fewest across this area. Little day to
day change is expected though some drier air will work in from the
east, which may reduce coverage some, especially east of the Rio
Grande. A cool front will sag into the northern portion of the state,
which will help focus showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday.
Winds across the area will top out around 10 to 15 MPH each
afternoon.

BROWN

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for the following zones...
NMZ202-204>206-208-211-214-215-226.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
622 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SW GASCON             35.86N 105.48W
07/26/2022                   SAN MIGUEL         NM   OTHER FEDERAL

            MAESTAS CREEK OVERFLOWING ITS BANKS.

&&

34

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
645 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SSE FLORA VISTA       36.75N 108.06W
07/26/2022                   SAN JUAN           NM   PUBLIC

            TWO VEHICLES WASHED AWAY AND ONE HOME
            FLOODED. WAVES OF FLOODWATERS CONTINUE.

&&

34