Flash Flood Warning 103, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1151 AM MDT Tue Jul 26 2022

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will favor northern
and western areas this afternoon and evening with scattered to
isolated activity farther south and east, except for little or no
convection on the southeast plains. Most of the activity will move
toward the northwest and north at 5-15 mph, except toward the north
and northeast at 5-10 mph over north central and northeast areas.
Locally heavy rainfall will be capable of producing wet microbursts
with erratic wind gusts to 45 kt. After midnight convection will be
more isolated and favor locations north of I-40.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 AM MDT Tue Jul 26 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
A continued increased risk of flash flooding exists today, focusing
over already rain soaked areas and recent burn scars. Storms will
favor the western and northern mountain chains, with lesser activity
over eastern and southeastern NM. Storm chances increase further
Wednesday and through the end of the work week, especially over
northeastern NM Thursday and Friday. The threat of locally heavy
rainfall and flash flooding will increase notably in this part of the
state to end the week as a result. Thereafter, storm chances begin to
fall back a little as temperatures warmer again for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
Above normal moisture will remain in place today with a traditional
monsoon flow pattern from south to north into NM. A "dry" northwest
extension to the upper level ridge into central NM the past few days
will continue weakening as the upper high center consolidates more
into TX. Meanwhile, a weak inverted trough moving northwest across
the Big Bend today is vaguely depicted becoming absorbed into the
monsoon plume thru tonight. This will enhance lift along the central
mt chain and bring a notable uptick in storms with heavy rainfall.
The Flash Flood Watch was expanded to include the Cont Dvd where
precip has been heavy the past few days. Storms will remain active
well into tonight with outflow boundaries continuing to focus CI.
Wednesday will be similar to today but the upper high will drift
farther west back into west TX. This may lead to a slight decrease in
coverage with a focus over northern and western NM once again.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
Thursday begins the long term period with northern and central New
Mexico stuck between a building dome of high pressure over the Great
Basin and another high pressure center over the southern MS River
basin. Diurnal convection looks to begin in earnest Thursday
afternoon across the western and central mountain chains. The
difference will be from a surface boundary entering northeastern NM
which some model solutions use to trigger vigorous convection along
and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains Thursday afternoon. The
ECMWF however keeps much of this convective activity over eastern CO
travelling eastward into KS during the overnight period. Meanwhile,
the GFS, NAM, and Canadian all show this activity squarely in
northeastern and east-central NM, with surface outflow progressing
south and westward Thursday night keeping convection going. This may
even bring a modest east canyon wind into Santa Fe and Albuquerque. A
mid-level deformation area between the two highs pressure systems
will also likely keep scattered showers and storms going over western
NM well into Thursday night as well. Friday sees a fairly similar
setup with the aforementioned surface boundary stalled through
northeastern NM. Models are picking up on this to generate further
enhanced convection over northeastern NM again Friday. As a result,
both Thursday and Friday will see an increased risk of flash
flooding, especially over recent burn scars.

Thereafter, numerical guidance shows the dome of high pressure over
the Great Basin region migrate toward New Mexico over the weekend.
This will bring a relative downtrend in daily thunderstorm activity
over the forecast area. Storm motions will remain fairly slow and
erratic through northern NM, and more east-to-west for areas along
and south of I-40. This setup with continue to favor storms over the
western, central, and northern high terrain, leaving the eastern
plains mostly dry. Temperatures will also begin to tick back up
again.

Guyer/24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Abundant monsoon moisture over the region will persist through the
end of this week. Locally heavy rainfall will elevate the risk for
dangerous burn scar flooding with each day of thunderstorms. Storm
motion will be north and northeast around 5 to 15 mph as upper level
high pressure remains over TX. The high center is expected to shift
slowly westward toward NM thru the weekend while strengthening early
next week. A gradual decrease in storm coverage may occur but storm
motion will become very slow and erratic once again.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for the following zones...
NMZ202-204>206-208-211-214-215-226.

&&