Flash Flood Warning 100, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
535 PM MDT Sun Jul 24 2022

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLES
Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop through evening
with storm motion to the north-northeast around 10 kts. Brief MVFR
conditions are possible with the stronger storms. Sct convection is
forecast to continue over the northwest half of NM after midnight
once again tonight. Patchy fog is possible in the western valleys
towards sunrise as cloud begin to scattered out and dissipate.

33

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.PREV DISCUSSION...322 PM MDT Sun Jul 24 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Daily rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity are expected for
much of northern and central New Mexico for the next week.  Abundant
moisture and slow storm motions will continue to bring the threat
for heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially over recent burn
scars. As grounds become increasingly saturated, runoff will increase
through the week. It will become increasingly important to stay away
from low spots, arroyos and rivers to avoid the risk of being swept
away. Temperatures will be lower this week than last week. High
temperatures most days will be near to just below normal for late
July.

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.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
Robust convection ongoing across the state will be slow to wane
tonight as high pressure elongates over the Great Plains and
Mississippi Valley. An enhanced deformation zone over the forecast
area will allow showers and thunderstorms to persist well past
midnight. This will allow the risk for flash flooding across recent
burn scars to persist well into the night. Overnight temperatures
will be within a few degrees of the previous night's readings,
trending above average.

The song remains the same into Monday, with the high shifting
further east. This will allow a shift to predominantly northerly
flow, which will further enhance atmospheric deformation and
stretching to support numerous to widespread storms in the
afternoon. Convective initiation will favor the northern and western
high terrain before spreading to adjacent highlands and valleys.
Relaxed flow aloft will once again create slow and erratic storm
motion, bringing the continued threat of flash flooding, especially
across recent burn scars. The exception to this setup will be across
the far eastern and southeastern plains, where dry air being shunted
around the southern periphery of the high will limit convective
development. An increase in dewpoints will let temperatures trend a
few degrees cooler across the west, while the east sees moderated
afternoon highs.

Showers and thunderstorms will persist once again into the overnight
hours, with overnight temperatures being within a few degrees of
Sunday night's readings.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
An active monsoon period will continue Tuesday through Saturday. The
upper level high will remain to the east of NM on Tuesday, while an
upper level low/inverted trough takes shape over Sonora. All-in-all,
northerly flow will set up a good traditional monsoonal tap over NM.
This combined with one or more disturbances shifting northward
across eastern AZ and/or western NM may allow for an increase in
activity there. With PWATs around 1 to 2 standard deviations above
normal across the north and west, plus slow storm motions, heavy
rainfall will be possible. Storms will likely last well into the
evening and overnight hours as the aforementioned disturbances shift
over northern NM. This pattern changes little on Wednesday. A
general weakness remains over NM, though another upper high will
develop over the Great Basin.

Thursday may be particularly active. While the pattern aloft doesn't
change appreciably, a front slides into eastern NM, and backs up to
the central mountain chain. Abundant moisture and upslope flow should
enhance thunderstorm chances across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
and portions of eastern New Mexico, while western NM remains active
with the inverted trough/weakness over AZ. New Mexico remains
sandwiched between two high centers Friday into the weekend, thus an
active period continues.

12/34

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.FIRE WEATHER...
Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will limit fire weather
concerns for the foreseeable future. Storm motions will favor a
northerly direction on Monday but further relaxed flow aloft after
that will continue make these motions slow and erratic thereafter.
This activity will bring the typical hazards to operations,
including gusty and erratic outflow winds, small hail, and
lightning. In addition, heavy rainfall will be possible, maintaining
the risk of burn scar flash flooding.

12

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.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 3 AM MDT Monday for the following zones...
NMZ208-211-214-215.

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