Winter Weather Advisory 7, NWS Las Vegas, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
128 PM PDT Mon Mar 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...A potent weather system will move through the area
today, bringing strong winds, another chance for precipitation,
and cooler temperatures. Warmer and drier conditions will begin
Tuesday and continue through the week as high pressure builds over
the region. &&

.SHORT TERM...Today through tomorrow.

Latest satellite indicating significant areas of
subsidence (sinking air) in the lee of the Sierra, Spring
Mountains, the Cottonwood Mountains (west of the Badwater Basin),
and across much of central Nye county. Downslope of these areas is
where much of the strongest winds have been so far today where
gusts of 50-65+ mph have occurred. Elsewhere, winds have been
gusting to 30-45 mph mostly. As the low responsible for today's
weather continues to dig down eastern CA and over southern NV by
tonight, strong winds will continue before moisture starts to
spill into our area.

Latest guidance indicates decent snow rates across
southern NV and northwest AZ as the low moves across the region
later this afternoon through tonight. Even though snow levels will
be fairly high initially, 6000-6500 feet, snow levels are
expected to crash quickly as the low center moves over head
dropping to below 4,000 feet by tonight. Increased QPF values from
the latest models resulted in snow totals of 3 to 6 inches for
elevations mainly above 5,000 feet for areas across south- central
NV and northwest AZ. Additionally, any convective snow bands that
do develop may locally reduce snow levels, resulting in locally
higher snow amounts. As a result, went ahead and issued Winter
Weather Advisories for elevations above 5,000 feet in Esmeralda,
central Nye, and Lincoln counties which will go into effect at 2pm
PDT. Similar conditions expected across northern Mohave County as
well, but aren't expected until this evening, when the Winter
Weather Advisory will go into effect at 8pm MDT. Besides those
changes, expect scattered rain/high elevation snow showers to
develop this afternoon across much of the region. Hires is
indicating that a deformation zone will be the primary area for
precipitation development/enhancement as the low center moves
through southern NV. Las Vegas looks like their best shot for
seeing precipitation will be from 2pm to 11pm PDT.

In addition to precipitation, went ahead an upgraded the Wind
Advisory for Death Valley to a High Wind Warning. Latest guidance
indicates gusts to 60 mph may be possible mainly from Stovepipe
Wells to Shoshone (basically across Badwater Basin), including
Furnace Creek and Badwater Road. Strongest winds are expected
this afternoon. Winds are expected to decrease quickly this
evening as the low center moves overhead, with gusts generally
dropping below 30-40 mph by 10-11pm tonight, though winds look to hang
on across the western Mojave Desert near Barstow/Daggett a little
longer, before decreasing around midnight- 1am.

The low pressure system will quickly move out of the region by
Tuesday morning, leaving only lingering chances for light snow
showers across eastern Lincoln County and northwest AZ through
Tuesday morning. Temperatures will be about 5-10 degrees below
seasonal normals today and tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday.

Quiet weather is expected for much of the rest of the week as high
pressure sets up over the area. This will allow for much warmer
temperatures to take over with readings by the end of the week
likely to several degrees above normal. There seems to be good
agreement in the ensemble clusters that another trough will approach
the coast over the weekend bringing increasing winds, cooler
temperatures, and precipitation chances for portions of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Gusty winds from the southwest through
early evening with wind gusts expected to peak up to 35 kts by 03z.
Rain showers will also begin to develop around the valley and all
approach/departure corridors as well late this afternoon. Can not
rule out a stray light shower even in the overnight hours. Ceilings
are likely to fall below 5kt which may affect air traffic. If any
heavier showers move across the terminal ceilings could
intermittently drop to 4 kft. This lower ceiling scenario is less
certain at this point. However, if it materialized it won't persist
longer than an hour or two. Ceilings will only slowly improve
overnight as the system slowly exits to the east. Mush lighter winds
Tuesday with some clouds hugging the higher terrain most of the day

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California....Strong gusty winds will continue across the inland
deserts into the late evening or early Tuesday before weakening.
Areas of blowing dust and locally reduced visibility primarily around
dry lake beds. Intermittent rain/snow showers are also possible as
well dropping ceilings to MVFR for terminals in the area. Most
persistent shower activity (and thus lower ceilings) will be located
in southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona through early Tuesday.
Conditions will improve areawide Tuesday as the low continues to
move east.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

Short Term...Kryston
Long Term...Nickerson
Aviation...Pierce

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