Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Rapid City, SD

543 
WWUS53 KUNR 062335
SVSUNR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
535 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021

SDC063-062345-
/O.CAN.KUNR.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-210707T0015Z/
Harding SD-
535 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HARDING COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4521 10306 4522 10282 4510 10272 4504 10307
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 346DEG 12KT 4517 10295 

$$

SDC019-105-070015-
/O.CON.KUNR.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-210707T0015Z/
Butte SD-Perkins SD-
535 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM MDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN BUTTE AND SOUTHWESTERN PERKINS COUNTIES...

At 535 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Zeona, or 40
miles southeast of Buffalo, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

Locations impacted include...
Zeona.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4521 10306 4522 10282 4510 10272 4504 10307
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 346DEG 12KT 4517 10295 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

JC

711 
WWUS53 KUNR 070005
SVSUNR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
605 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021

SDC019-105-070015-
/O.EXP.KUNR.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-210707T0015Z/
Butte SD-Perkins SD-
605 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN BUTTE AND
SOUTHWESTERN PERKINS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 615 PM MDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Rapid City.

LAT...LON 4521 10306 4522 10282 4510 10272 4504 10307
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 346DEG 12KT 4508 10292 

$$

JC

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
235 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021

Lift associated with an upper trough has mostly moved off to the
southeast of the forecast area this afternoon, however isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will still occur over our south
central South Dakota zones for a few more hours. Although MUCAPE has
risen to around 1000J/KG over most of the forecast area, large scale
subsidence with weak ridging between the departing upper trough and
another upper trough currently over eastern Montana is limiting
convective development to a few short-lived showers so far this
afternoon.

Shear and synoptic scale lift will increase as the next upper trough
begins to affect the region this afternoon and tonight.
Expect to see only isolated storms, however Large hail/damaging
winds may occur with any supercells.

On Wednesday, an upper ridge will build toward the area from the
west with a return to warmer temperatures. Due to the large scale
subsidence over the region, a relatively strong capping inversion
will remain in place over the plains. The best chance of
thunderstorms developing will be over the Black Hills late
Wednesday afternoon. If storms do develop, the shear will be
sufficient for a few supercells. Nocturnal convection is expected
on the SD plains on Wednesday night, due to a developing 25-40kt
low level jet enhancing theta-e advection.

On Thursday, another thermal ridge will peak over the region with
high temperatures ranging from about 5-10F warmer than average.
Fairly quiet weather is expected during the day but some storms
are possible again Thursday night, especially toward central SD.

The best chances for more widespread showers and storms will occur
on Friday and Saturday as an upper trough and cyclonic flow aloft
will linger over the northern plains. Cooler temperatures will
prevail on Saturday. Temperatures warm up again with on Sunday and
Monday with limited TSRA chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued At 140 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021

MVFR CIGS are persisting with rain showers, mostly across central
SD. Precip and MVFR CIGS will persist through the afternoon.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are generally expected through the
forecast period. Across northeast WY and the Black Hills region,
isolated thunderstorms could develop and move through the area
late today into the evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over northeastern
Wyoming on Wednesday and Thursday due to low minimum relative
humidity. Winds look modest so no headlines are expected to be
needed.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
535 AM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021

SDZ001-012-WYZ054>058-071-071300-
Harding-Butte-Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-Western Crook-
Wyoming Black Hills-Weston-Northeastern Crook-
535 AM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwestern
South Dakota...northeast Wyoming...and the Black Hills of
Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly late this afternoon
and evening. Any storms that develop could be strong to marginally
severe with hail and strong wind gusts the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A series of disturbances and a passing cold front late week will
bring near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially
from Wednesday night through Saturday. Severe thunderstorms are
not expected at this time, but there is at least some potential
for a few stronger storms Thursday night and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

SDZ002-013-014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-071300-
Perkins-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-Northern Black Hills-
Northern Foot Hills-Rapid City-Southern Foot Hills-
Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-Custer Co Plains-
Pennington Co Plains-Haakon-Fall River-Oglala Lakota-Jackson-
Bennett-Mellette-Todd-Tripp-Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-
Southern Meade Co Plains-Hermosa Foot Hills-
535 AM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021 /635 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western South
Dakota and northeastern Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will
persist across a good portion of the area through the day,
especially over and to the south and east of the Black Hills. The
threat for severe storms is low, but a strong storm or two will
small hail and gusty winds is possible, especially toward south
central South Dakota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A series of disturbances and a passing cold front late week will
bring near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially
from Wednesday night through Saturday. Severe thunderstorms are
not expected at this time, but there is at least some potential
for a few stronger storms Thursday night and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity