Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Rapid City, SD

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1126 PM MDT Mon Jun 14 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday)
Issued at 218 PM MDT Mon Jun 14 2021

Latest water vapor imagery depicts the upper ridge over the Rockies
with an embedded shortwave rounding the ridge in Wyoming. Visible
satellite shows some CU building over the northern Hills and over
the Bighorns. At the surface, there is a developing lee trough over
central Wyoming with high pressure over the Dakotas. Temperatures at
1 PM range from low 80s in the Hills to the low 90s over the plains.
Winds are easterly to southeasterly at 5 to 15 mph.

The wave over WY will cross the area this afternoon and evening,
bringing isolated chances of thunderstorms, with a few strong to
severe storms possible. Forcing looks to be weak, but could see some
high-based storms similar to yesterday. Temperatures will remain
mild overnight, with lows only falling into the 60s.

Upper ridge axis remains over the area on Tuesday, with dry
conditions expected. Temperatures will rise into the 90s and lower
100s. Breezy southeast winds are expected across the SD plains,
especially across northwest SD. Ridge axis shifts a bit east on
Wednesday with a surface cold front sliding into the area, bringing
some breezy northerly winds to the SD plains. High temperatures will
range from the upper 80s across northeast WY and northwest SD, to
around 100 degrees in south central SD, with dry conditions
continuing.

The upper ridge over the area begins to break down later in the
week, leading to more zonal flow across the Northern Plains. This
will bring some relief from the heat, as highs will generally be in
the 80s for Thursday through Sunday. Precipitation chances increase
for the weekend as a short-wave trough digs into the area from
Canada, pushing through some weak shortwaves.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued At 1124 PM MDT Mon Jun 14 2021

VFR conditions expected through the period. Isolated TSRA with
local/brief MVFR conditions near the Black Hills will end early
this morning. Gusty southerly winds are expected, especially
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 218 PM MDT Mon Jun 14 2021

Hot and dry conditions are expected again on Tuesday. Winds will be
from the south before shifting southwest in the afternoon. Models
are suggesting winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 30 mph. Those
wind speeds combined with the low humidity will warrant a fire
weather watch from 10 AM to 10 PM on Tuesday.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM MDT Tuesday through Tuesday
     evening for WYZ314>317.

&&

DISCUSSION...MLS
AVIATION...Helgeson
FIRE WEATHER...MLS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
444 AM MDT Mon Jun 14 2021

SDZ012-024>031-041-042-044-072>074-WYZ054>058-071-151300-
Butte-Northern Black Hills-Northern Foot Hills-Rapid City-
Southern Foot Hills-Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-
Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Fall River-Oglala Lakota-
Bennett-Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-Southern Meade Co Plains-
Hermosa Foot Hills-Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-
Western Crook-Wyoming Black Hills-Weston-Northeastern Crook-
444 AM MDT Mon Jun 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western South
Dakota and northeastern Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms later this
afternoon and evening with large hail and damaging winds possible.

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon over
northeast Wyoming where gusty southeast winds will combine with
minimum relative humidities in the upper teens to mid 20s.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

High temperatures Tuesday afternoon will be in the 90s to 103.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

SDZ001-002-013-014-032-043-046-047-049-151300-
Harding-Perkins-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-Haakon-Jackson-
Mellette-Todd-Tripp-
444 AM MDT Mon Jun 14 2021 /544 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western South
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight, but organized severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

High temperatures Tuesday afternoon will be in the 90s.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
746 PM MDT Mon Jun 14 2021

WYZ054-150215-
Northern Campbell WY-
746 PM MDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHEASTERN CAMPBELL COUNTY...

At 746 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Recluse, or 32 miles north of Gillette, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Weston and Recluse.

LAT...LON 4464 10575 4481 10572 4481 10523 4455 10532
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 284DEG 22KT 4472 10565

Carstens

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
846 PM MDT MON JUN 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 ESE PINE HAVEN       44.29N 104.62W
06/14/2021  M50 MPH          CROOK              WY   MESONET

&&

CALDERON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
951 PM MDT Mon Jun 14 2021

WYZ057-058-150430-
Weston WY-Wyoming Black Hills WY-
951 PM MDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHEASTERN WESTON COUNTY...

At 951 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northwest of Osage, or 19 miles northwest of Newcastle, moving
southeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Newcastle and Osage.

LAT...LON 4401 10462 4416 10449 4402 10405 4369 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 0351Z 302DEG 28KT 4405 10448

Carstens

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1052 PM MDT MON JUN 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1052 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNE NEWCASTLE         43.89N 104.18W
06/14/2021  E60 MPH          WESTON             WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CALDERON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 PM MDT MON JUN 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 WNW NEWCASTLE         43.88N 104.32W
06/14/2021  M53 MPH          WESTON             WY   AWOS

&&

WFO UNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1131 PM MDT MON JUN 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1109 PM     HAIL             3 NNE NEWCASTLE         43.89N 104.18W
06/14/2021  E1.00 INCH       WESTON             WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WFO UNR