Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Rapid City, SD

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
523 PM MDT Fri Aug 6 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 1253 PM MDT Fri Aug 6 2021

Slow progressing upper trough will support chances for showers
and thunderstorms the next two days. Western CONUS upper ridge
will briefly breakdown in the period as series of stronger NE Pac
impulses traverse the northern tier allowing strong cold fronts
into the northern CONUS. Current compact impulse over the northern
Rockies has started this progression. This system will support a
good chance of showers and storms across the region late this
afternoon and tonight, esp across NE WY and NW SD. SE flow ahead
of this wave continues to advect a decent amount of ll moisture
into the FA, with dewpoints rising into the 50s and 60s. Staunch
capping remains in place across the region with clouds and upslope
flow limiting things right now. However,clearing upstream over
portions of WY should allow the cap to erode there quickly this
afternoon with convection developing there. Decent mid level speed
max of 50+ knots will push into the region this and support
organized convection. Combination of CAPE, deep player sheer,
dynamic forcing will support one or two complex’s of TS this
which will quickly propagate NE. Favorable CAPE/profiles will
support a severe threat with the main impact being damaging winds.
Things will clear out later tonight with a sfc trough moving
through the area Sat morning. A period of breezy NW winds may
materialize in the morning behind the trough. Lingering moisture
and instability will support TS chances over the central and
southern BH into scentral SD Saturday. The next stronger impulse
will move into the northern Rockies Sunday with strong WAA and
gusty SW flow ahead of this system. This will support another warm
day with temps in the 90s and few 100s possible. Flow remains
slightly unsettled next week with chances for thunderstorms and
generally seasonal temps through mid week. The degree of moisture
advection will ultimately determine the coverage of any storms
next week, which at this time looks to be mainly isolated.
Forecast models are hinting at a strong cold front Wed-Thur which
may advect through most of the area, supporting a decent cool down
for a couple days. Smoke will continue to cover the region
through the period, remaining mainly in the mid and upper
atmosphere, except behind any sfc troughs where pooling tends to
occur allowing near sfc smoke to increase.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued At 516 PM MDT Fri Aug 6 2021

Multiple rounds of TSRA with local IFR conditions will move
across the area this evening, some of which may contain 50kt wind
gusts and large hail. The strongest activity will be done by 06z,
but isolated/scattered storms will persist into Saturday. HZ/FU
may pour into the area overnight with local MVFR conditions, but
most locations will remain VFR through Saturday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 1253 PM MDT Fri Aug 6 2021

A period of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions
looks likely across at least northeast WY, ahead of another cold
front Sunday. Minimum humidity values near or below 15 percent are
looking likely, with at least some potential for breezy
southwesterly winds to develop later in the afternoon. Will
monitor potential for red flag conditions and possible headlines.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...Helgeson
FIRE WEATHER...JC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
409 AM MDT Fri Aug 6 2021

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>031-041-042-072>074-WYZ054>058-071-071300-
Harding-Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-
Northern Black Hills-Northern Foot Hills-Rapid City-
Southern Foot Hills-Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-
Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Fall River-Oglala Lakota-
Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-Southern Meade Co Plains-
Hermosa Foot Hills-Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-
Western Crook-Wyoming Black Hills-Weston-Northeastern Crook-
409 AM MDT Fri Aug 6 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western South
Dakota and northeastern Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening.
These storms could produce large hail and strong winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a chance of thunderstorms on Saturday. Widespead severe
storms are not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

SDZ032-043-044-046-047-049-071300-
Haakon-Jackson-Bennett-Mellette-Todd-Tripp-
409 AM MDT Fri Aug 6 2021 /509 AM CDT Fri Aug 6 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
South Dakota...and southwestern South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening.
These storms could produce large hail and strong winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a chance of thunderstorms on Saturday. Some of the
storms will be capable of marginally severe wind or hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
715 PM MDT FRI AUG 06 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 SW BATESLAND          43.05N 102.22W
08/06/2021  M55 MPH          OGLALA LAKOTA      SD   MESONET

&&

MOSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
717 PM MDT FRI AUG 06 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 SW BATESLAND          43.05N 102.22W
08/06/2021  M64 MPH          OGLALA LAKOTA      SD   MESONET

&&

MOSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
721 PM MDT FRI AUG 06 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 ESE MARTIN            43.17N 101.71W
08/06/2021  M68 MPH          BENNETT            SD   AWOS

&&

MOSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
744 PM MDT FRI AUG 06 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND GST     19 S QUINN              43.71N 102.13W
08/06/2021  E70 MPH          PENNINGTON         SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 E CACTUS FLAT         43.84N 101.82W
08/06/2021  M51 MPH          JACKSON            SD   MESONET

0735 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 ESE MARTIN            43.17N 101.71W
08/06/2021  M51 MPH          BENNETT            SD   AWOS

&&

MOSE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
750 PM MDT Fri Aug 6 2021

SDZ014-031-032-043-046-073-070245-
Ziebach SD-Jackson SD-Pennington Co Plains SD-
Southern Meade Co Plains SD-Haakon SD-Mellette SD-
750 PM MDT Fri Aug 6 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Haakon, southeastern
Ziebach, east central Meade, northwestern Mellette, northeastern
Jackson and eastern Pennington Counties through 845 PM MDT/945 PM
CDT/...

At 750 PM MDT/850 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 10 miles north of Creighton
to near Grindstone Butte to 9 miles south of Philip. Movement was
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Grindstone Butte around 755 PM MDT.
  Philip around 800 PM MDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Bridger,
Milesville, Nowlin, Cherry Creek and Midland.

This includes Interstate 90 in South Dakota between Mile Markers 145
and 174.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT/900 PM
CDT/ for west central South Dakota. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch also
remains in effect until midnight MDT/100 AM CDT/ for south central
and southwestern South Dakota.

&&

LAT...LON 4369 10153 4405 10178 4433 10206 4441 10221
      4496 10114 4419 10117 4417 10116 4416 10106
      4414 10104 4386 10106 4385 10099 4381 10096
      4383 10092 4382 10092 4381 10093
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 246DEG 28KT 4440 10214 4422 10182 4391 10171

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Sherburn

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
754 PM MDT FRI AUG 06 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NE PORCUPINE          43.29N 102.27W
08/06/2021  M67 MPH          OGLALA LAKOTA      SD   MESONET

&&

POJORLIE