Red Flag Warning 33, NWS Rapid City, SD

495 
WWUS83 KUNR 160032
RFWUNR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
532 PM MST Mon Nov 15 2021

...RED FLAG WARNING FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 322, 323, 324, 325, 326, 327, 328, 329, 330, 331,
332, 333, AND 334...

.A strong cold front will cross the area tomorrow, bringing gusty
northwest winds. Additionally, very dry air behind the front will
decrease relative humidities into the 15-25 percent range over 
much of the western SD plains. The combination of strong winds and
low relative humidity values will lead to critical fire weather
conditions.

SDZ322>334-161545-
/O.CON.KUNR.FW.W.0033.211116T1800Z-211117T0000Z/
Fall River County Area-Northern Foot Hills-Eastern Foot Hills-
Custer County Plains-Pine Ridge Area-Butte County Area-
Perkins County-West Central Plains-Ziebach County-
Haakon County Area-Badlands Area-Bennett County Area-
Mellette and Todd Counties-
532 PM MST Mon Nov 15 2021 /632 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/
TO 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 322, 323, 324, 325, 326, 327,
328, 329, 330, 331, 332, 333, AND 334...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zones 322 Fall River County Area, 
  323 Northern Foot Hills, 324 Eastern Foot Hills, 325 Custer 
  County Plains, 326 Pine Ridge Area, 327 Butte County Area, 328 
  Perkins County, 329 West Central Plains, 330 Ziebach County, 
  331 Haakon County Area, 332 Badlands Area, 333 Bennett County 
  Area and 334 Mellette and Todd Counties.

* WINDS...Northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 17 percent.

* IMPACTS...The combination of gusty winds and low relative 
  humidity would produce critical fire weather conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

425 
WWUS83 KUNR 160904
RFWUNR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
204 AM MST Tue Nov 16 2021

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS 
MORNING TO 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS AND 
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 322, 323, 324, 325, 
326, 327, 328, 329, 330, 331, 332, 333, AND 334...

.A strong cold front will cross the area today, bringing gusty 
northwest winds. Additionally, very dry air behind the front will 
decrease relative humidities into the 15-25 percent range over 
much of the western SD plains. The combination of strong winds and
low relative humidity values will lead to critical fire weather 
conditions.

SDZ322>334-170000-
/O.CON.KUNR.FW.W.0033.211116T1800Z-211117T0000Z/
Fall River County Area-Northern Foot Hills-Eastern Foot Hills-
Custer County Plains-Pine Ridge Area-Butte County Area-
Perkins County-West Central Plains-Ziebach County-
Haakon County Area-Badlands Area-Bennett County Area-
Mellette and Todd Counties-
204 AM MST Tue Nov 16 2021 /304 AM CST Tue Nov 16 2021/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/
THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 322, 323,
324, 325, 326, 327, 328, 329, 330, 331, 332, 333, AND 334...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zones 322 Fall River County Area, 
  323 Northern Foot Hills, 324 Eastern Foot Hills, 325 Custer 
  County Plains, 326 Pine Ridge Area, 327 Butte County Area, 328 
  Perkins County, 329 West Central Plains, 330 Ziebach County, 
  331 Haakon County Area, 332 Badlands Area, 333 Bennett County 
  Area and 334 Mellette and Todd Counties.

* WINDS...Northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...The combination of gusty winds and low relative 
  humidity would produce critical fire weather conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1100 AM MST Mon Nov 15 2021

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Sunday)
Issued at 130 AM MST Mon Nov 15 2021

Progressive/active NW flow will continue over the region
supporting a windy pattern with another deep sfc low to affect the
region this week. WAA ongoing with temps responding well across
NE WY and around the favored downslope areas in the lee of the BH.
Deep upper trough will force a strong sfc low into the Northern
Plains with ongoing WAA and SW flow aloft supporting very mild
conds today. Temps will climb into the 60s most places with 70s
from the BH to scentral SD. Expected mostly sunny conds will also
help to push temps to mix out potentials. Hence, bumped highs up a
bit. Ongoing pressure falls with increasing flow aloft will
support breezy conds in favored downslope areas tonight, esp the
northern and eastern foothills where gusts over 40 mph will be
possible late tonight as well as mild overnight lows.
Aforementioned upper trough will shift east and support a strong
cold front into the area Tues, with warning level winds looking
likely across far NW SD Tues, lasting into Wed after a brief lull
Wed night. Most other places on the SD plains will see at least
adv levels, with warning levels possible for small window on the
plains east of the BH Tue with the cold front, and again Wed
afternoon with a secondary cold front. Opted for a high wind watch
for far NW SD where the strongest winds and highest likelihood of
warning level winds are expected (65+ mph), running it through
Wed to make it simple. Little to no precip is expected with this
system given extremely dry low level profiles, with perhaps some
light snow late Tues afternoon and evening over far western
Campbell county and the northern BH. Sfc low will deepen Tue night
with BL flow increasing into Wed morning. This will support
continued windy conds Wed with ongoing CAA, supporting adv level
to possible warning level winds from NW to scentral SD. Highly
progressive flow will then support temp moderation after Wed with
50s and maybe a few 60s returning by Friday. Another clipper type
system looks likely this weekend per model trends. However, the
strength, track, and resultant CAA continues to vary between
models and runs. One thing that does look certain is little to no
precip is expected outside perhaps NE WY and the northern BH into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued At 1059 AM MST Mon Nov 15 2021

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Low level wind
shear is expected over the Black Hills area overnight, including
at KRAP. Breezy southwesterly winds will develop across much of
northeast WY today, spreading into the Black Hills and foothills
tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 130 AM MST Mon Nov 15 2021

Warm temps, breezy westerly winds, and dry low level profiles
will support elevated fire weather conditions across much of the
area today, esp northeast WY into southwest SD where relative
humidities will fall to 15 to 20 percent this afternoon. A strong
cold front will move through the region Tues. Winds will shift NW
and increase late Tues morning, with widespread gusts over 50 mph
expected, esp on the SD plains. Very dry airmass behind the front
looks to support a prolonged period of rh’s in the 15-20% range
on most of the SD plains, and when combined with the strong winds
would support critical fire weather conditions. Opted for a fire
weather watch Tues afternoon given winds, rh’s, and critical
fuels.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for SDZ323>334.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon
     for SDZ001-002-012>014.

WY...     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon
     for WYZ071.

&&

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...Dye
FIRE WEATHER...JC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1102 AM MST Mon Nov 15 2021

SDZ024-028-029-WYZ054>058-161400-
Northern Black Hills-Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-
Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-Western Crook-
Wyoming Black Hills-Weston-
1102 AM MST Mon Nov 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Black Hills
of South Dakota...northeast Wyoming...and the Black Hills of
Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Gusty southwesterly winds to 40 mph are likely to develop over
portions of northeast Wyoming this afternoon, spreading into the
Black Hills tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Another strong cold front will cross the region on Tuesday,
bringing very gusty northwesterly winds to the area. Gusts of 40
to 50 mph are likely over much of the area late Tuesday morning
and afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

SDZ001-002-012>014-WYZ071-161400-
Harding-Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-
Northeastern Crook-
1102 AM MST Mon Nov 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwestern
South Dakota...and northeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Another strong cold front will cross the region on Tuesday,
bringing strong northwesterly winds to the area. Gusts to over 60
mph are possible at times over northwest South Dakota from late
Tuesday morning to late Wednesday afternoon. The strong winds and
low humidity Tuesday afternoon could produce critical or near
critical fire weather conditions. The grassland fire danger is
expected to be extreme Tuesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

SDZ025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-161400-
Northern Foot Hills-Rapid City-Southern Foot Hills-
Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Haakon-Fall River-
Oglala Lakota-Jackson-Bennett-Mellette-Todd-Tripp-
Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-Southern Meade Co Plains-
Hermosa Foot Hills-
1102 AM MST Mon Nov 15 2021 /1202 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western South
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Another strong cold front will cross the region on Tuesday,
bringing very gusty northwesterly winds to the area. Gusts of 40
to over 50 mph are possible at times over much of the area from
late Tuesday morning into Wednesday. The gusty winds and low
humidity Tuesday afternoon could produce critical or near
critical fire weather conditions in many areas. The grassland fire
danger is expected to be very high to extreme Tuesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity