Red Flag Warning 31, NWS Rapid City, SD

688 
WWUS83 KUNR 042019
RFWUNR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
219 PM MDT Mon Oct 4 2021

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 314, 315, 316, 317, 318, 323, AND 327...

.Very dry air remains in place across the region beneath a strong
upper level ridge of high pressure. Relative humidity will
continue to drop into the 6 to 10 percent range this afternoon,
with southerly winds gusting around 25 mph. Critical fire weather
conditions will continue until early evening, after which 
relatively humidity will rise slightly, but humidity recovery 
overnight will remain poor with some breezy southwest winds 
continuing. Near critical fire weather conditions will develop
again Tuesday afternoon.

SDZ323-327-WYZ314>318-050100-
/O.CON.KUNR.FW.W.0031.000000T0000Z-211005T0100Z/
Northern Foot Hills-Butte County Area-Northern Campbell-
Southern Campbell-Crook County Plains-Weston County Plains-
Wyoming Black Hills-
219 PM MDT Mon Oct 4 2021

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
314, 315, 316, 317, 318, 323, AND 327...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zones 314 Northern Campbell, 315 
  Southern Campbell, 316 Crook County Plains, 317 Weston County 
  Plains, 318 Wyoming Black Hills, 323 Northern Foot Hills and 
  327 Butte County Area.

* WINDS...South 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...6 to 10 percent.

* IMPACTS...The combination of gusty winds and low relative 
  humidity would produce critical fire weather conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

547 
WWUS83 KUNR 050053
RFWUNR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
653 PM MDT Mon Oct 4 2021


SDZ323-327-WYZ314>318-050200-
/O.EXP.KUNR.FW.W.0031.000000T0000Z-211005T0100Z/
Northern Foot Hills-Butte County Area-Northern Campbell-
Southern Campbell-Crook County Plains-Weston County Plains-
Wyoming Black Hills-
653 PM MDT Mon Oct 4 2021

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 314,
315, 316, 317, 318, 323, AND 327...

Winds have dropped below 25 mph across the warning area, thus
allowing for the warning to expire. Relative humidity values will
rise only to 25 to 40 percent across much of the Black Hills area
overnight, so elevated fire weather conditions remain in this 
area.

$$

Bunkers

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1024 PM MDT Sun Oct 3 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM MDT Sun Oct 3 2021

Upper ridge is building over the northern Rockies and high plains
with clear skies across the entire forecast area. Surface ridge
has shifted to the east with weak trofing over the western
Dakotas and west-southwest winds. Afternoon temperatures on the
plains have climbed into the mid 70s to mid 80s.

Most of the week will be warm and dry as the upper ridge builds,
then shifts to the east as an upper trof deepens along the west
coast, keeping southwest flow over the northern Plains. The next
chance of precipitation will be Friday as a small upper low moves
over the area, but showers will be light. Temperatures will be
above normal as thermal ridge remains over the high plains and
winds will be southerly. Cooler weather will push into the area
behind a cold front late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued At 1024 PM MDT Sun Oct 3 2021

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF forecast period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 145 AM MDT Sun Oct 3 2021

Warm dry weather can be expected through mid week. Relative
humidities will fall to around 10 to 18 percent across most of the
area Monday and Tuesday, creating critical to near critical fire
weather conditions. Winds will become south and increase Monday,
especially across Campbell County WY, but depending on how strong
the low pressure system over eastern MT develops, may not be as
strong over the rest of northeastern WY, so the fire weather watch
will continue for all of northeastern WY and portions of western
SD Monday. While winds will be lighter over northeastern WY
Tuesday, they will be stronger over the plains of western SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for SDZ327.

WY...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for WYZ314>318.

&&

DISCUSSION...55
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
401 AM MDT Sun Oct 3 2021

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-041300-
Harding-Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-
Northern Black Hills-Northern Foot Hills-Rapid City-
Southern Foot Hills-Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-
Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Haakon-Fall River-
Oglala Lakota-Jackson-Bennett-Mellette-Todd-Tripp-
Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-Southern Meade Co Plains-
Hermosa Foot Hills-Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-
Western Crook-Wyoming Black Hills-Weston-Northeastern Crook-
401 AM MDT Sun Oct 3 2021 /501 AM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western South
Dakota and northeastern Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

High to very high grassland fire danger can be expected this
afternoon across much of the western South Dakota plains and
foothills, along with the northeastern Wyoming plains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible
early in the week, especially on Monday over northeastern Wyoming
and far northwestern South Dakota, where a Fire Weather Watch has
been issued.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity