Heat Advisory 2, NWS Rapid City, SD

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1115 PM MDT Tue Jun 15 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM MDT Tue Jun 15 2021

Lack of forcing and sufficient CIN has kept thunderstorms from
developing this evening. Forecast updated to remove thunderstorms
from forecast. Winds/RH improving so northeast Wyoming Red Flag
Warning also dropped.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday)
Issued at 146 PM MDT Tue Jun 15 2021

Latest upper air analysis has the upper ridge axis over the western
half of the CWA as an upper trough digs into the Pacific Northwest.
Water vapor imagery depicts a shortwave rounding the ridge into
northeastern Wyoming and western SD. At the surface, high pressure
is located across the the Dakotas with lee trof developing across
central Montana and Wyoming. Temperatures across the forecast area
ranged from the upper 80s in the Black Hills and northwestern SD to
the upper 90s over northeastern Wyoming. Winds were gusty from the
south at 10 to 25 mph.

Strong mixing this afternoon might be be deep enough to allow an
isolated strong storm to form, but overall still quite a bit of
convective inhibition in place. Therefore, will continue to monitor
satellite data and keep slight pops in the forecast.

The strong upper low over the Pacific Northwest will move across
Canada, flatting the central CONUS ridge, allowing for slightly
cooler temperatures on Wednesday. At the surface, a cool front will
move through the Northern Plains Wednesday morning, bringing some
breezy northerly winds to the area, mainly during the morning hours.
Highs will mainly be in the 80s, but 90s will be possible across far
south central SD before the front arrives there. Mainly dry
conditions will continue.

The remainder of the week will be mainly dry with highs in the 80s.
A series of shortwaves will cross the Northern Plains this weekend,
bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms back to the area.
Precipitation chances increase early next week as upper level flow
becomes more cyclonic with temperatures closer to average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued At 1114 PM MDT Tue Jun 15 2021

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A cold front
will move through the area Wednesday morning. Gusty northwest
winds will develop behind the front, especially on the plains
north and east of the Black Hills.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

Update...7
DISCUSSION...MLS
AVIATION...7

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
918 PM MDT Tue Jun 15 2021

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-161300-
Harding-Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-
Northern Black Hills-Northern Foot Hills-Rapid City-
Southern Foot Hills-Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-
Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Haakon-Fall River-
Oglala Lakota-Jackson-Bennett-Mellette-Todd-Tripp-
Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-Southern Meade Co Plains-
Hermosa Foot Hills-Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-
Western Crook-Wyoming Black Hills-Weston-Northeastern Crook-
918 PM MDT Tue Jun 15 2021 /1018 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western South
Dakota and northeastern Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the
area late Wednesday. Severe weather is not expected. Better
chances of widespread thunderstorms arrive this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity