Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
341 PM MST Sun Sep 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms into this evening
with the potential for some gusty outflows and blowing dust. Labor
Day looks less active, with temperatures a couple degrees below
normal continuing for the next several days. After Labor Day through
the end of the week, storms are mainly confined to the International
border and central/western Pima County.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Storms have already developed across the region this
afternoon, with high pressure sitting over the southern Great Basin.
Convective development is getting a boost from a shortwave rounding
the east side of the upper high and moving into our area from NM. SPC
mesoanalysis has slightly lower PWAT values than this morning, but
we've still had some heavy rainers and gusty winds from some of the
stronger storms with DCAPE values sitting around 1400 J/kg over
Tucson. As storms continue to move SW off the White Mountains, the
potential increases for some blowing dust across Pinal and northeast
Pima Counties. Tucson is also in the conversation for some
potentially strong to severe storms through about 02Z this evening.
After that, CAM solutions trend downward pretty quickly with the
loss of daytime heating, with most of our convection ending by 04Z
to 06Z tonight.

High pressure builds north across central Nevada for Labor Day with
SE Arizona under east/northeast flow aloft. Deeper moisture looks to
be shunted south a bit to along the International border and western
Pima County. Daytime heating will help isolated to scattered storm
activity in that area along with the White Mountains. Temperatures
near normal.

High pressure remains quasistationary through midweek with moisture
confined to the western part of the CWA and along the International
border. Only isolated activity is expected, and mainly along the
International border and central/western Pima County. Temperatures
continue to be within a few degrees of normal.

Further drying is possible Friday into the weekend, but we'll keep a
close eye on the tropics to see if we can get another gulf surge
instead. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 07/00Z.
ISOLD-SCT TSRA/SHRA this afternoon and evening with SCT-BKN clouds
10k-15kft MSL, generally clearing overnight into Monday morning.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS may accompany a few of the stronger storms, along
with BLDU and wind gusts in excess of 40 kts. SFC wind outside
convection generally less than 12 kts. -SHRA/-TSRA on Monday
afternoon mainly west and south of KTUS and across the White
Mountains northeast of KSAD. Aviation not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, some with gusty winds in excess of 45 mph.
Storms then mainly confined to our western zones and along the
International border through about midweek, with very limited
convection late week and next weekend. 20-foot winds will generally
be less than 15 mph when not influenced by thunderstorm gusts.
Minimum RH values will remain well above critical thresholds this
week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
402 PM MST SUN SEP 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND GST     20 E GREEN VALLEY       31.87N 110.66W
09/05/2021  E60 MPH          PIMA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

&&

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
412 PM MST SUN SEP 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 PM     HAIL             7 NE TUCSON             32.26N 110.80W
09/05/2021  M0.75 INCH       PIMA               AZ   PUBLIC

            PENNY-SIZE HAIL MEASURED IN TANQUE VERDE
            AREA.

&&

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
429 PM MST SUN SEP 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     LIGHTNING        18 SSE TUCSON           31.97N 110.73W
09/05/2021                   PIMA               AZ   PUBLIC

            LIGHTNING HIT HOME NEAR SAHUARITA RD AND
            WENTWORTH RD AND STARTED A ROOF FIRE.

&&

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
453 PM MST SUN SEP 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             1 W SAFFORD             32.83N 109.72W
09/05/2021  E1.00 INCH       GRAHAM             AZ   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED 1 INCH HAIL IN SAFFORD.

&&

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
508 PM MST SUN SEP 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 E TUCSON              32.19N 110.74W
09/05/2021  M66 MPH          PIMA               AZ   MESONET

            MESONET STATION CW6532 TUCSON FREEMAN/OLD
            SPANISH TRL.

&&

EC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
602 PM MST Sun Sep 5 2021

AZZ504-507-508-513-514-060145-
Santa Catalina and Rincon Mountains including Mount
Lemmon/Summerhaven-Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Eastern Cochise County Below 5000
Feet including Douglas/Willcox-Tucson Metro Area including
Tucson/Green Valley/Marana/Vail-
602 PM MST Sun Sep 5 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Pima
and west central Cochise Counties through 645 PM MST...

At 602 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles north of Benson, moving southwest at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Benson, Vail, St. David, Dragoon, Kartchner Caverns State Park,
Mescal and Texas Canyon.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 10 between mile markers 279 and 324.
 Route 80 between mile markers 293 and 307.
 Route 82 near mile marker 57.
 Route 83 between mile markers 56 and 58.
 Route 90 between mile markers 290 and 303.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3225 11035 3206 10995 3171 11026 3202 11077
TIME...MOT...LOC 0102Z 038DEG 21KT 3211 11036

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JRM