Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
214 PM MST Fri Aug 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably hot temperatures are forecast into Monday, but not
quite as hot as the past few days. Daily rounds of mainly
afternoon and evening isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
also occur. An increase in tropical moisture and heavy rainfall
potential is expected by Tuesday, and will coincide with below
normal daytime temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed across southeast
Arizona this afternoon, some on the strong to severe side with a
good wind gust potential due to drier air below the mid levels.
These storms should last into the evening but diminish during the
overnight hours. Expect thunderstorms to develop each afternoon
through Monday although high temperatures will be a few degrees
cooler than the past few days.

Certainly all eyes are on Nora, which is still a long way from
Arizona. Models continue to forecast a slow advance in our
direction this weekend into next week, but differences between
longer range models also continue when it comes to the track.

The exact track will have a lot to do with how much rainfall we
end up with in southern Arizona in the Tuesday through Thursday
time frame. In any event, there will be the potential for heavy
rain from this tropical system, which could cause a lot of runoff
issues when falling on already saturated ground resulting from our
active monsoon. Stay tuned as details become more clear in the
coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 29/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds at 8k-12k ft MSL (locally BKN during the afternoon
and evening) thru the forecast period. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA thru
28/06Z and then developing again aft 28/19Z. MVFR conditions and
mountain-top obscurations near TSRA, along with wind gusts up to 45
kts. Otherwise, SFC wind favoring an easterly direction and
generally less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected for
much of the forecast area through the weekend. Moisture is then
expected to increase next week allowing for even better chances of
rainfall, perhaps heavy at times. 20-foot winds will generally be
less than 15 mph when not influenced by thunderstorms and RH values
are expected to remain above critical thresholds.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ501-
502-504>507-509.

&&

Public...Drozd
Aviation...Zell
Fire Weather....Zell

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
122 PM MST Fri Aug 27 2021

AZZ502-272100-
Tohono O'odham Nation including Sells-
122 PM MST Fri Aug 27 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Pima County
through 200 PM MST...

At 121 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sells. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Sells, Ali Chukson, Gu Oidak, Fresnal, No:ligk, Comobabi, South
Comobabi, Cababi, San Luis - Sells District, Artesia, Rincon and Ali
Molina.

This includes Route 86 between mile markers 103 and 124.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3214 11194 3203 11171 3181 11181 3194 11209
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 030DEG 3KT 3200 11187

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

GL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
217 PM MST Fri Aug 27 2021

AZZ502-503-515-272200-
Tohono O'odham Nation including Sells-Upper Santa Cruz River and
Altar Valleys including Nogales-Baboquivari Mountains including Kitt
Peak-
217 PM MST Fri Aug 27 2021

...A line of strong thunderstorms will impact portions of south
central Pima County through 300 PM MST...

At 214 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms from 10 miles southeast of Sells to 5 miles northeast
of Newfield. This line was moving west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Topawa, San Miguel, Ali Chukson, Choulic, Coldfields, Fresnal Canyon,
Hashan Chuchg, South Komelik and Ali Molina.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3157 11179 3169 11182 3188 11192 3193 11172
      3170 11153 3153 11165
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 087DEG 9KT 3171 11163

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Zell

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
254 PM MST Fri Aug 27 2021

AZZ504-506-514-272230-
Santa Catalina and Rincon Mountains including Mount
Lemmon/Summerhaven-Southeast Pinal County including
Kearny/Mammoth/Oracle-Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green
Valley/Marana/Vail-
254 PM MST Fri Aug 27 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Pima
and southeastern Pinal Counties through 330 PM MST...

At 254 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Saddlebrooke, or near Catalina, moving west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Oracle, Saddlebrooke, Biosphere 2 and Oracle Junction.

This includes the following highways...
 Route 77 between mile markers 89 and 102.
 Route 79 between mile markers 92 and 96.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3264 11076 3252 11079 3251 11100 3271 11099
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 111DEG 11KT 3259 11090

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH