Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
222 PM MST Tue Aug 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS...The increased shower and thunderstorm chances will bring
temperatures a few degrees below average much of this week. Some
storms will generate strong winds and heavy rain which could result
in localized flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...After an active morning of showers and thunderstorms
with flooding issues across parts of SE AZ, there has been somewhat
of a lull in the activity early this afternoon. The upper level
disturbance responsible for the heavy rainfall and subsequent
flooding was lifting north of the area with most of the showers and
thunderstorms becoming focused across Cochise county. Another area
of concern for the development of thunderstorms will be mainly west
and south of Tucson where skies were mostly sunny much of the day.
Recent high resolution models showed another round of scattered
showers and thunderstorms through late tonight with the possibility
of morning storms tomorrow.

The weather pattern will support daily showers and thunderstorms,
with an elevated risk for flash flooding/flooding evolving Friday
into the weekend. Global models were showing an inverted trough
approaching the region on Thursday. Upper diffluence ahead of this
trough will increase the concern for strong thunderstorms, possibly
severe, Thursday afternoon and evening. Models track this feature
slowly through southern AZ Friday into Sunday night before lifting
northeast of the area on Monday. High temperatures will remain below
normal through the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 12/00Z.
Mostly SCT-BKN clouds 10-14k ft MSL. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA
through the forecast period. Local MVFR conditions and gusty winds
with SHRA/TSRA. Outside of SHRA/TSRA, SFC winds will be less than 10
kts following a normal diurnal flow of sly/sely during the
night/early morning and mainly wly/nwly late morning through
afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Ample moisture this week along with periodic
mid level disturbances will result in at least a mid grade monsoon
pattern. Given the higher levels of moisture and cloud coverage,
temperatures will be cooler this week. Strong, erratic winds and
locally heavy rainfall will be possible with any stronger storms
that develop. 20-foot winds will generally be less than 15 mph when
not influenced by thunderstorms.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
341 PM MST Tue Aug 10 2021

AZZ503-507-513-102315-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar
Valleys including Nogales-
341 PM MST Tue Aug 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Cochise and
east central Santa Cruz Counties through 415 PM MST...

At 340 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Fort Huachuca, or 16 miles west of Sierra Vista, moving
east northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Huachuca and Canelo.

This includes Route 83 between mile markers 8 and 20.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3143 11057 3154 11062 3168 11043 3154 11030
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 235DEG 7KT 3154 11050

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

LJT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
438 PM MST Tue Aug 10 2021

AZZ503-504-507-513-110030-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar
Valleys including Nogales-Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green
Valley/Marana/Vail-
438 PM MST Tue Aug 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Pima,
west central Cochise and north central Santa Cruz Counties through
530 PM MST...

At 437 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Sonoita, or 19 miles east of Sahuarita, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Vail, Sonoita, Corona De Tucson and Madera Canyon.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 10 between mile markers 281 and 287.
 Route 83 between mile markers 35 and 58.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3165 11075 3177 11093 3204 11069 3187 11037
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 226DEG 10KT 3184 11067

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
439 PM MST Tue Aug 10 2021

AZZ502-110015-
Tohono O'odham Nation including Sells-
439 PM MST Tue Aug 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Pima
County through 515 PM MST...

At 437 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southeast of Hickiwan, or 33 miles northwest of Sells, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Santa Rosa, Covered Wells, Vaya Chin, Mountain Village, San Luis and
Santa Rosa School.

This includes Route 86 between mile markers 80 and 92.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3222 11241 3244 11237 3237 11203 3210 11214
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 293DEG 15KT 3226 11228

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

LJT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
632 PM MST Tue Aug 10 2021

AZZ501-502-110200-
Western Pima County Including Ajo/Organ Pipe Cactus National
Monument-Tohono O'odham Nation including Sells-
632 PM MST Tue Aug 10 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Pima
County through 700 PM MST...

At 632 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Ajo to 11 miles southwest of Hickiwan.
Movement was east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ajo, Hickiwan, Why, Charco 27 and Vaya Chin.

This includes the following highways...
 Route 85 between mile markers 33 and 53.
 Route 86 near mile marker 53, and between mile markers 59 and 67.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3251 11289 3251 11242 3226 11219 3219 11261
      3233 11287 3242 11292
TIME...MOT...LOC 0132Z 265DEG 5KT 3246 11289 3226 11265

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
707 PM MST Tue Aug 10 2021

AZZ501-502-504-505-515-110245-
Western Pima County Including Ajo/Organ Pipe Cactus National
Monument-Tohono O'odham Nation including Sells-Baboquivari Mountains
including Kitt Peak-Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green
Valley/Marana/Vail-South Central Pinal County including Eloy/Picacho
Peak State Park-
707 PM MST Tue Aug 10 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Pima and
southwestern Pinal Counties through 745 PM MST...

At 706 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles north of Ajo to 10 miles north of
Pisinemo to 11 miles north of Kitt Peak. Movement was northeast at
20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ajo, Sells, Avra Valley, Santa Rosa, Pisinemo, Hickiwan, San Isidro,
Picture Rocks, Covered Wells, Anegam, San Simon, Why, North Komelik,
Charco 27, Kohatk, Palo Verde Stand, Ventana, Fresnal, San Pedro and
Ak Chin.

This includes the following highways...
 Route 85 between mile markers 33 and 53.
 Route 86 between mile markers 53 and 54, between mile markers 58 and
115, and between mile markers 121 and 141.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3250 11305 3251 11221 3268 11220 3268 11216
      3272 11215 3272 11205 3259 11185 3234 11119
      3203 11146 3190 11191 3207 11250
TIME...MOT...LOC 0206Z 227DEG 25KT 3252 11282 3218 11236 3212 11157

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
827 PM MST Tue Aug 10 2021

AZZ502-110400-
Tohono O'odham Nation including Sells-
827 PM MST Tue Aug 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Pinal
County through 900 PM MST...

At 827 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles southwest of Chui-Chu, or 26 miles southwest of Casa Grande,
moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kohatk and Jack Rabbit.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3277 11199 3277 11197 3257 11185 3251 11212
      3263 11219
TIME...MOT...LOC 0327Z 239DEG 10KT 3262 11205

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Tripoli