Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
234 AM MST Tue Aug 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances will bring
temperatures a few degrees below average much of this week. Some
storms will generate strong winds and heavy rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...With high pressure now east of the area again, a
deep southerly flow has returned to SE AZ. Plenty of moisture with
precipitable water values ranging from 1.15 inches near the New
Mexico border to 1.8 inches in the lower deserts. Surface
dewpoints holding easily in the 60s with a long steady fetch of
additional moisture pushing up from the south.

Expect a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms the next few
days before a strong inverted trough pushes slowly in from the
east Friday and Saturday. By then high pressure will be rebuilding
through the central Great Basin to our north. This will reinforce
strong organized thunderstorm outflow from the Mogollon Rim that
should push deep into the lower deserts in the late afternoon and
evening hours. So, severe and flash flood threat to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 11/12Z.
Mostly SCT-BKN clouds 10-14k ft MSL. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA
expected, mainly in afternoon and evening hours. Local MVFR
conditions and gusty winds with SHRA/TSRA. Outside of SHRA/TSRA,
SFC winds will be less than 10 kts following a normal diurnal flow
of sly/sely during the night/early morning and mainly wly/nwly
late morning through afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Ample moisture this week along with periodic
mid level disturbances will result in at least a mid grade monsoon
pattern. Given the higher levels of moisture and cloud coverage,
temperatures will be cooler this week. Strong, erratic winds and
locally heavy rainfall will be possible with any stronger storms
that develop. 20-foot winds will generally be less than 15 mph when
not influenced by thunderstorms.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
444 AM MST Tue Aug 10 2021

AZZ504-514-101230-
Santa Catalina and Rincon Mountains including Mount
Lemmon/Summerhaven-Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green
Valley/Marana/Vail-
444 AM MST Tue Aug 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Pima
County through 530 AM MST...

At 442 AM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Marana, moving north at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 35 mph and brief heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Marana, Casas Adobes, Flowing Wells, Tortolita, Catalina State Park,
Catalina Foothills, Picture Rocks and Dove Mountain.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 10 between mile markers 235 and 251.
 Route 77 between mile markers 71 and 86.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3227 11094 3236 11123 3250 11125 3249 11089
TIME...MOT...LOC 1142Z 193DEG 5KT 3242 11111

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Meyer