Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1000 AM MST Mon Aug 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...The overall trend in thunderstorm coverage will be
less for most of this week and focused south and east of Tucson.
High temperatures will trend up to near or slightly above normal
by midweek. Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms is
possible by the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...After some overnight/early morning showers, a few
more have already developed in the White Mountains of east-central
AZ. Overall, the general trend in thunderstorm activity the next few
days will be limited compared to the last couple of weeks in July.
That said, the current forecast in the short-term looked on track.
Thus, no updates necessary this morning.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 03/18Z.
Generally SKC with FEW clouds around 10k-15k ft AGL this morning.
Expect another round of isolated SHRA/TSRA this afternoon. SCT to
perhaps BKN clouds between 8k-12k ft agl by late afternoon. Brief
MVFR will be possible within +TSRA. Best chance for any storms will
be south and east of KTUS. Outside of TSRA outflows, SFC wind will
generally remain less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected throughout the week, with a downward trend in storm
activity today through Wednesday when storm chances will mainly be
east of Tucson. An upswing in thunderstorm activity is expected
going into this weekend. Any thunderstorms that develop will be
capable of producing strong, gusty and erratic winds along with
locally heavy rainfall. RH values will remain well above critical
thresholds the next 7 days. 20-foot winds will generally be less
than 15 mph when not influenced by thunderstorms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../Issued 311 AM MST Mon Aug 2 2021/
A few weak showers were occurring this morning along/near AZ/NM
border. The center of the upper high that was over northern Sonora
last night will move NW to a position near Las Vegas later today and
then maintain that position through at least late Wednesday. Thus
looking at a low-grade monsoon for the first half of the work week
with daily activity mainly being east and south of Tucson. Each
evening thunderstorm complexes will be developing across Sonora MX
which may send out low level moisture pushes into the area each
overnight period.

By Thursday the upper ridge axis becomes more east-west oriented
with two centers developing, one east of the area and one west of
the area. This will open up the area for a return to an active
monsoon pattern that will continue into the weekend.

High temperatures heating up through mid-week before returning to
below normal levels late in the week into the weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1243 PM MST Mon Aug 2 2021

AZZ509-510-022030-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford-White
Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties including Hannagan Meadow-
1243 PM MST Mon Aug 2 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GREENLEE COUNTY
UNTIL 130 PM MST...

At 1243 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles south of Hannagan Meadow, or 29 miles north of Clifton, moving
south at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea sized hail will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rose Peak.

LAT...LON 3354 10940 3349 10915 3321 10916 3326 10949
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 014DEG 11KT 3345 10928

AH