Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
957 AM MST Sun Aug 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS...The overall trend in thunderstorm coverage will be
less for most of next week and focused south and east of Tucson.
High temperatures will trend up to near or slightly above normal
by midweek. Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms is
possible by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Still some echoes being picked up by KEMX this
morning along with a few lightning strikes across the White
Mountains. Otherwise, most of the CWA was under clear skies with
temperatures warming up into the 80s in the lower elevations. The
morning sounding looked pretty decent with 1.64" PWAT, plenty of
CAPE and less of a cap than yesterday, but very weak and erratic
flow below H5. This is probably why some of the showers that have
popped up this morning are not moving off the terrain very well.
With that in mind, a quick look at the HREF members is still
advertising a day similar to Saturday in terms of convective
coverage. Given some of the variables noted from the sounding, think
that while coverage should be similar to yesterday, we could see
some stronger cells develop with heavier rain cores and stronger
downdrafts/surface wind gusts. Again, the focus should be mainly
from Tucson eastward and southward, with the high being shunted a
little south and east today before it makes a westward track early
in the new work week. Forecast looks good, more details with the
afternoon package. Please see the remaining sections for additional
information.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 02/18Z.
FEW-SCT and occasionally BKN clouds 10k-14k ft MSL. ISOLD-SCT
SHRA/TSRA this afternoon and early evening, mainly S and E of KTUS.
Clouds decreasing areawide aft 02/07z. Strong, gusty and erratic
wind gusts with TSRA to 40 kts, heavy downpours, and temporary MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. Outside of TSRA outflows, SFC wind will generally remain
less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected today, mainly south and east of Tucson, then a downward
trend in storm activity Monday through Wednesday when storm chances
will mainly be east of Tucson. An upswing in thunderstorm activity
is expected going into next weekend. Any thunderstorms that develop
will be capable of producing strong, gusty and erratic winds along
with locally heavy rainfall. RH values will remain well above
critical thresholds the next 7 days. Near normal high temperatures
through at least Thursday. 20-foot winds will generally be less than
15 mph when not influenced by thunderstorms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...It was quiet most of the night until the past
hour when isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms developed in
NW Cochise County. This activity will continue to move slowly
northeast with brief heavy rain and gusty winds. Highest rainfall
totals should generally be less than 0.5". Looking at water vapor,
some subtle gravity waves are moving across the area on the nose of
drier air. There is also upper level diffluent flow likely aiding in
the development of these showers/storms...or magic, but probably the
other stuff.

Today (Sunday) looks like yesterday. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms with the best coverage south and east of Tucson.
This pattern continues into the first part of the week. With less
activity and a strengthening high pressure moving across the area,
temperatures will be around 99-102 degrees through mid-week.

An uptick in the Monsoon by next weekend still looks on track, with
highs dropping back into the lower or middle 90s.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1228 PM MST Sun Aug 1 2021

AZZ509-510-012015-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford-White
Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties including Hannagan Meadow-
1228 PM MST Sun Aug 1 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GREENLEE COUNTY
UNTIL 115 PM MST...

At 1228 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles south of Clifton, moving northeast at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 45 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Duncan, York, Three Way and Guthrie.

LAT...LON 3269 10920 3293 10938 3305 10912 3289 10904
      3276 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 231DEG 6KT 3285 10922

AH