Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
228 PM MST Mon Jul 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
An active period of daily scattered showers and thunderstorms
during the next 7 days. High temperatures will be hot today and
Monday then cool to below normal levels later around the middle of
this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Hazy skies continue across portions of southeast Arizona. This is
likely partially related to blowing dust the past few days, along
with Pacific Northwest wildfire smoke working its way down. A
closed upper high remains centered over southern CA, with
northeasterly flow aloft across our forecast area. This pattern
will likely bring another round of thunderstorms today. Convection
is firing this afternoon along the Mogollon Rim, and flow aloft
will bring it toward the I-10 corridor this evening. Strong gusty
winds and blowing dust will be the primary hazards. Locally heavy
rainfall is also expected, but decent flow will keep storms
moving. Flash flooding is unlikely except in areas where storms
engage in training.

The pattern remains relatively similar for Tuesday, with the main
exception being the steering flow will be weaker, leading to much
slower movement of storms. Flash flooding may prove to be a higher
impact Tuesday (and Wednesday) with slower storm motion...and a
Watch product has been issued to help communicate this threat.

The shower and thunderstorm threat continues into Thursday and
Friday, but shouldn't be as strong. The primary difference late
this week will be considerably cooler temperatures with increased
cloud cover and moisture.

The Four Corners high looks to redevelop this weekend, which could
renew chances for stronger showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA over the White Mountains this afternoon will
propagate to the southwest through late this evening. These storms
could reach KTUS/KOLS between 01-04z. Wind gusts to 50 kts
possible near the strongest TSRA, with some blowing dust possible.
Otherwise, surface winds less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms for the next week for
southeast Arizona. Gusty outflow winds will be the primary concern
with daily storms. Min RH values will generally be in the 15- 25
percent range for lower elevations through tomorrow with very good
overnight recoveries before increasing Tuesday onward. Surface
winds will be light and follow normal daily trends when not
influenced by storms.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for AZZ501>507-509-511-513>515.

Blowing Dust Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for AZZ501-
502-504>506.

&&

Public...Dang
Aviation...Hardin
Fire Weather....Dang

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
629 PM MST Mon Jul 12 2021

AZZ506-507-509-511-130200-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford-Upper
San Pedro River Valley including Sierra Vista/Benson-Southeast Pinal
County including Kearny/Mammoth/Oracle-Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains
including Mount Graham-
629 PM MST Mon Jul 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL GRAHAM AND EAST
CENTRAL PINAL COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM MST...

At 628 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southeast of Aravaipa Canyon Wilderness, or 19 miles east of
Mammoth, moving southwest at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Aravaipa Canyon Wilderness and Klondyke.

LAT...LON 3309 11035 3276 11016 3256 11047 3294 11069
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 046DEG 5KT 3280 11032

RH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
639 PM MST Mon Jul 12 2021

AZZ509-510-130215-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford-White
Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties including Hannagan Meadow-
639 PM MST Mon Jul 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GRAHAM COUNTY UNTIL
715 PM MST...

At 638 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles south of Seven Mile, or Northern Graham County, moving south
at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Point-Of-Pines.

LAT...LON 3357 10988 3353 10984 3353 10982 3348 10981
      3348 10975 3352 10973 3353 10970 3306 10976
      3324 11028 3346 11016 3347 11000 3358 11000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 018DEG 27KT 3355 10989

RH