Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
200 PM MST Sat Jul 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

Southern Arizona will remain in an active pattern for isolated
thunderstorms and hot daytime highs for the next several days.
Impacts will include blowing dust, potential flash flooding and
gusty and erratic winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Lots of sunshine has allowed energy to build across Southern Arizona
today, with Marana and Tucson already at 105 degrees each.

High resolution models have continued to point to an active late
afternoon start to isolated thunderstorm activity initiating off of
the Mogollon Rim. Some convection has already started in Northern
Greenlee County, moving swiftly southwestward. With PW values at
or above 1.5 inches, heavy localized rainfall will be one of the
main impacts to watch for the rest of today. Even with fast moving
storms, the flash flooding potential does remain, especially over
dry areas and existing burn scars. Additionally, due to the
potential for stronger updrafts and accompanying outflow, blowing
dust will be an issue for parts of Pinal and Pima County through
the evening hours. Therefore, in coordination with WFO Phoenix,
we've issued a Blowing Dust Advisory for those areas valid from
00-06 UTC.

Another interesting wrinkle is the HREF is highlighting areas near
the US/MX border with some interesting updraft helicity
probabilities. If storms do fire in those areas, close attention
will need to be paid to their structure.

Sunday brings another chance for isolated thunderstorm activity,
which will continue well into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 12/00Z.
ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA over the White Mountains this afternoon will
propagate to the southwest through late this evening. Best timing
for thunderstorms affecting KTUS is between 11/01z and 11/07z, and
KOLS between 02-06z. Wind gusts to 50 kts possible near the
strongest TSRA. Otherwise, surface winds less than 12 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are again
possible today, forming off the Mogollon Rim this afternoon and
moving to the SW during the evening and overnight hours. Gusty
outflow winds will be the primary concern with these storms. Min RH
values will generally be in the 15-25 percent range for lower
elevations through Monday with very good overnight recoveries before
increasing Tuesday onward. Surface winds will be light and follow
normal daily trends when not influenced by storms.

&&

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blowing Dust Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM MST this
evening for AZZ501-502-504>506.

&&

Public...Singer
Aviation...Dang
Fire Weather....Dang

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
318 PM MST Sat Jul 10 2021

AZZ509-510-102300-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford-White
Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties including Hannagan Meadow-
318 PM MST Sat Jul 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL GRAHAM AND SOUTHERN
GREENLEE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM MST...

At 317 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Clifton, moving southwest at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clifton, Morenci, Duncan, York, Franklin, Three Way and Guthrie.

LAT...LON 3301 10965 3326 10934 3296 10905 3245 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 053DEG 21KT 3294 10915