Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
203 PM MST Tue Jul 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...A drying trend will curtail thunderstorm coverage the
rest of the week. As this happens, temperatures will climb
several degrees. Conditions look favorable for an increase in
thunderstorm chances by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed right on schedule this
afternoon, begining over the Chiricahuas and higher terrain of
northern Graham and Greenlee Counties. The morning sounding measured
1.78" PW, which is yet again near record levels for this time of
year. The monsoon ridge is currently centered near the NV/UT border,
producing northeasterly steering flow across our region.

Models show the favored area for precip remaining east of Tucson
today. This is in concert with the best instability, with SBCAPE
around 500-1000 J/kg. Storms will drift toward the south or
southwest and with the abundant moisture still available, flash
flooding and wet microburst remain the primary threat. DCAPE is best
over Graham/Greenlee, this may produce a more organized outflow
coming off the high terrain into the Gila River Valley.

The setup for tomorrow is similar with yet another rimshot pattern.
However, the HREF and other guidance shows instability shifting a
bit farther west, with activity approaching eastern Pima and Santa
Cruz Counties. Through the remainder of the forecast period, the
upper high will be centered to our north or northwest maintaining a
consistent east or northeast flow. We'll have to rely on recycling
latent moisture since conditions upstream are a bit drier and won't
bring much reinforcement. It doesn't fully shut down our daily
thunderstorms, but coverage will be less expansive. This begins to
shift early next week as an easterly wave pushes across Mexico into
the Gulf of California, pushing a surge of moisture in our
direction. Model forecast IVT increases up the Gulf and good
agreement among all guidance points to enhanced rainfall chances
across southeast Arizona Monday and Tuesday next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 08/00Z.
SCT clouds 8k-12k ft MSL through the period except SCT-BKN with
layers above at times east of KTUS. Isolated SHRA/TSRA will be
possible mainly along the international border and the AZ/NM border.
Wind gusts to 40 kts possible near any TSRA. Otherwise sfc winds
will be NW this afternoon and evening with speeds 5-10 kts then
becoming S to SE overnight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect slightly reduced storm coverage this week
with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly from
central Pima County eastward. Best chances each day will be along
the international border and and AZ/NM border with a nudge toward
Tucson late Wednesday. Min RH values will generally be in the 20-35
percent range for lower elevations through the weekend with very
good overnight recoveries. General winds will be light through the
week and following normal daily trends when not influenced by
storms.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Discussion...Howlett
Aviation/Fire Wx...Cerniglia

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
143 PM MST Tue Jul 6 2021

AZZ508-062115-
Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including Douglas/Willcox-
143 PM MST Tue Jul 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY
UNTIL 215 PM MST...

At 142 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of Douglas, moving southwest at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Douglas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 10951 3145 10931 3139 10920 3133 10923
      3134 10955
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 026DEG 18KT 3136 10934

Cerniglia

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
227 PM MST Tue Jul 6 2021

AZZ509-510-062200-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford-White
Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties including Hannagan Meadow-
227 PM MST Tue Jul 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GREENLEE COUNTY
UNTIL 300 PM MST...

At 226 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Mule Creek, moving southwest at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Duncan, York, Franklin, Three Way and Guthrie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3291 10936 3313 10905 3263 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 031DEG 18KT 3299 10902

RH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
254 PM MST Tue Jul 6 2021

AZZ509-510-062230-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford-White
Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties including Hannagan Meadow-
254 PM MST Tue Jul 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM AND SOUTHERN
GREENLEE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM MST...

At 253 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Morenci, or near Clifton, moving southwest at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clifton, Solomon, Morenci, Safford Regional Airport, Duncan, York,
Franklin, Three Way and Guthrie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3269 10967 3317 10956 3312 10905 3259 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 025DEG 17KT 3299 10933

RH