Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
204 PM MST Mon Jul 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening, before
some drying starts to curtail thunderstorm coverage the rest of the
week. As this happens, temperatures will climb several degrees.
Conditions look favorable for an increase in thunderstorm chances by
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Still plenty of moisture around to support showers and
thunderstorms today, but the overall areal coverage has decreased
significantly already compared to the holiday weekend. Ensembles
still favor this downward trend in daily thunderstorms this week as
the large scale flow pattern changes and drier air spreads into the
area. As high pressure aloft becomes centered over the Great Basin
and the air mass dries more, daytime temperatures will be warming up
this week. High temperatures will peak a few degrees above seasonal
averages by Wednesday. Thereafter, ensembles hint at a return to a
more activity thunderstorm weather pattern for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 07/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds 7k-10k ft MSL through the period with layers above at
times. Isolated SHRA/TSRA mainly from Tucson south and eastward.
Wind gusts to 40 kts possible near storms. Otherwise, surface winds
NW at 5-10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms will
continue to decrease this week. Overall winds will be light through
the week and follow normal daily trends when not influenced by
thunderstorms. Minimum relative humidity values will drop by about
10 percent the next few days compared to readings over the holiday
weekend, but overnight recoveries will still be very good.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1148 AM MST Mon Jul 5 2021

AZZ507-508-513-051930-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Eastern Cochise County Below 5000
Feet including Douglas/Willcox-
1148 AM MST Mon Jul 5 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL 1230
PM MST...

At 1146 AM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
over the southern Dragoon mountains. This storm was nearly
stationary.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly remote areas of central Cochise
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3174 10974 3168 10991 3187 11002 3192 10992
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 151DEG 3KT 3186 10996

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
224 PM MST Mon Jul 5 2021

AZZ508-512-052215-
Chiricahua Mountains including Chiricahua National Monument-Eastern
Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including Douglas/Willcox-
224 PM MST Mon Jul 5 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...

At 222 PM MST, a strong thunderstorm was located over Douglas, moving
north at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Douglas, Bisbee-Douglas Airport and Pirtleville.

This includes the following highways...
 Route 80 between mile markers 360 and 381.
 Route 191 between mile markers 1 and 9.

Torrential rainfall and minor street flooding are also occurring
with this storm.  Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

LAT...LON 3145 10971 3156 10945 3134 10931 3133 10934
      3133 10965
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 160DEG 5KT 3134 10951

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