Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
149 PM MST Sat Jul 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Plenty of moisture this holiday weekend for a good
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Strong winds and heavy rain
are a concern. Some drying is expected early next week, with
fewer storms by the middle of the week. As this happens,
temperatures will climb a few degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms were focused
mainly across southwest Cochise west through Santa Cruz and central
Pima counties late this morning and early this afternoon. The air
mass was very moist so flash flooding was the main concern
associated with the stronger thunderstorms. A MCV spinning over
Cochise county was helping enhance the thunderstorm activity. This
feature was drifting toward the west to northwest and will shift the
focus farther north and west through this evening.

Ensembles were favoring a drying trend next week as high pressure
aloft builds farther northward over the Great Basin region. This
position will result in the steering flow shifting to the northeast.
With less upstream moisture around the high, that will tend to dry
things out a bit. In fact, ensemble means showed the pwater values
lowering to around 1.25 inches on Tuesday and Wednesday. This drying
trend will also result in warmer high temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 05/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds 7k-10k ft MSL through the period with layers above at
times. Scattered SHRA/TSRA this evening with the possibility of some
storms overnight. Some of the storms could result in brief MVFR
conditions due to heavy rain, low CIGS/VIS. In the vicnity of
thunderstorms, wind gusts to 40 kts will be possible. Otherwise
expect wind speeds 5-10 kts from variable directions. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A chance of daily showers and thunderstorms,
although the areal coverage of storms will decrease next week as
some drying occurs. General winds will be light through next week
and follow normal daily trends when not influenced by storms. The
only exception is the Gila River Valley which could see elevated
winds to start the work week. Humidity levels will remain elevated
through Monday with afternoon minimum values about 25-35 percent in
the valleys and 45-55 percent in the mountains with very good
overnight recoveries. After Monday, minimum relative humidity values
are expected to drop by about 10 percent, but overnight recoveries
will still be very good.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1151 AM MST Sat Jul 3 2021

AZZ502>504-515-031945-
Tohono O'odham Nation including Sells-Upper Santa Cruz River and
Altar Valleys including Nogales-Baboquivari Mountains including Kitt
Peak-Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green Valley/Marana/Vail-
1151 AM MST Sat Jul 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PIMA AND
NORTHWESTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM MST...

At 1151 AM MST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southeast of Three Points to 8 miles
northwest of Tubac. Movement was west at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Three Points and San Pedro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3214 11155 3162 11147 3166 11111 3205 11115
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 093DEG 8KT 3199 11122 3168 11117

Carpenter

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
115 PM MST Sat Jul 3 2021

AZZ502-504-505-032100-
Tohono O'odham Nation including Sells-Tucson Metro Area including
Tucson/Green Valley/Marana/Vail-South Central Pinal County including
Eloy/Picacho Peak State Park-
115 PM MST Sat Jul 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL PIMA AND
SOUTHWESTERN PINAL COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM MST...

At 114 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southwest of Avra Valley, or 23 miles west of Marana. This
storm was slowly moving west. Additional storms are developing with
the worst storms between Queens Well and Silver Bell.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 mph and blowing dust will be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Queens Well, Sil Nakya and Silver Bell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3243 11140 3225 11151 3214 11152 3214 11191
      3251 11165 3250 11152
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 088DEG 2KT 3231 11153

JRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
120 PM MST Sat Jul 3 2021

AZZ502-503-515-032100-
Tohono O'odham Nation including Sells-Upper Santa Cruz River and
Altar Valleys including Nogales-Baboquivari Mountains including Kitt
Peak-
120 PM MST Sat Jul 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY UNTIL
200 PM MST...

At 119 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorm near San Miguel, or 23 miles southeast of Sells. These
storms are nearly stationary.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 mph and blowing dust will be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Topawa, San Miguel, Vamori, Choulic, Newfield, Coldfields, Sasabe,
Hashan Chuchg and South Komelik.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3158 11184 3158 11186 3159 11187 3162 11198
      3189 11195 3164 11135 3145 11144
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 087DEG 1KT 3162 11170

JRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
214 PM MST Sat Jul 3 2021

AZZ504-514-032145-
Santa Catalina and Rincon Mountains including Mount
Lemmon/Summerhaven-Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green
Valley/Marana/Vail-
214 PM MST Sat Jul 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM MST...

At 213 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sabino Canyon Recreation Area, or 9 miles northeast of Tucson, moving
west at 5 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and small hail will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tucson, Casas Adobes, Tanque Verde, Sabino Canyon Recreation Area and
Catalina Foothills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3236 11081 3227 11075 3218 11093 3236 11099
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 074DEG 6KT 3231 11082

JRM