Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
257 PM MST Fri Feb 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...A series of weather systems will result in cooler
temperatures and breezy to locally windy conditions this weekend
into the middle of next week. These systems will also bring a
chance of valley rain and mountain snow showers on Sunday and then
again Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Another beautiful day this afternoon across SE AZ,
however an increase in clouds with a couple passing showers will
be possible late afternoon and into the evening. This system will
quickly pass through the area with at the most up 0.05" of rain
for the lucky few that get a shower.

Saturday will feature another breezy day with pleasant
temperatures as our next storm system approaches the region by
late in the day. Winds will remain gusty throughout the night,
increasing on Sunday afternoon. Southwest to westerly winds will
be sustained 15-25 mph, with occasional gusts around 35 mph. A
few showers could briefly produce gusts approaching 45 mph,
however that will be hit or miss. Over the past couple days, the
eastward trend has pushed the best precip chances just east of
Tucson. Only expecting around 0.1" of valley rain from passing
showers in Tucson with 1-3" of snow in the Catalina/Rincon Mtns.
Valleys east of Tucson around 0.25" of rain is expected with 3-7"
of snow for Mount Graham and the White Mtns.

The storm quickly exits the region by Monday with one of the
cooler mornings we have seen in awhile. It could be quite chilly
along the AZ/NM border where some moderated arctic air will
attempt to seep into SE AZ. Confidence is low on this, but it
could result in temperatures being a little too warm in the
current forecast.

Another weak storm system should pass mainly north and east of
Tucson on Tuesday. Light valley rain showers and mountain snow
showers with breezy and cooler conditions possible.

Uncertainty remains in regard to a building high pressure off the
Cali coast. Nonetheless, warmer temps back into the 70s look
promising. Whether we can warm to near 80 will depend on the ridge
positioning.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 14/00Z
Clouds becoming SCT-BKN at 10k-15k ft MSL and continuing thru
13/06Z. These mid clouds clearing from west to east aft 13/06Z, with
high level cirrus clouds overspreading the area aft 13/15Z. Slight
chance of -SHRA between 12/22Z and 13/06Z. There may even be a
rumble or two of thunder. SFC wind SWLY/WLY at most locations (NWLY
at KSAD) at 14-20 kts and gusts to 20-25 kts thru 13/02Z and then
again aft 13/20Z. SFC wind less than 10 kts and variable in
direction at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Temperatures will remain above normal into Saturday.
A weak system will move across the area this afternoon and tonight,
resulting in slight chance of showers and breezy southwest to west
winds. 20-foot winds will continue to be breezy to locally windy
Saturday and Sunday, with sustained 20-foot winds of 15-25 mph and
gusts to 30-35 mph. A stronger storm system will move into the
region Saturday night and Sunday, bringing a chance of valley rain
and mountain snow showers from central Pima County eastward. At this
time, rainfall/snowfall amounts do not look significant. Yet another
storm system will lead to gusty winds and precipitation chances
next Tuesday into possibly Wednesday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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