Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
305 AM MST Mon Jan 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS...The next winter storm will pass through the state this
afternoon into Tuesday bringing another round of rain and snow
showers. A few thunderstorms with small hail will also be possible
this afternoon and evening. The storm will usher in a much colder
airmass and strong winds, with snow levels likely reaching the
desert floors including the Tucson area tonight into Tuesday.
Significant snow accumulations can be expected for elevations
generally above 4,000 feet. Improving weather conditions will follow
by Wednesday afternoon after a chilly and frosty morning. Generally
dry and cool conditions will continue on Thursday before yet another
storm system enters the region late Friday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...After a brief break in the weather last night and
early this morning, the next winter storm will pass through the area
this afternoon into Tuesday. No notable changes to the previous
forecast as the timing and precipitation amounts still appeared to
be on track for this afternoon into Tuesday. Strong and gusty winds
along with a much colder airmass will accompany this storm. Snow
levels will lower significantly tonight and early Tuesday as low as
2,500 to 3,000 feet. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect this
afternoon into Tuesday for lower elevations with a Winter Storm
Warning for the mountains. The windy conditions will result in near
blizzard like conditions at times, especially in the mountains. The
storm system will exit Arizona by Tuesday evening with precipitation
ending and skies clearing from west to east. The clearing skies will
result in a hard freeze and frost Wednesday morning in the valleys.
Models were showing a break in the weather Wednesday and Thursday
before yet another storm system enters the region late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 26/12Z.
BKN-OVC cloud decks at 3k-6k ft AGL thru 25/20Z, then BKN-OVC cloud
decks lowering to 1k-4k ft AGL thru the remainder of the forecast
period. Isolated -SHRA thru 25/18Z, then increasing precipitation
chances, with widespread valley SHRA/mountain SHSN by 25/22Z. There
will also be a slight chance of -TSRA from 25/21Z thru the remainder
of the forecast cycle. Mountain obscurations and widespread MVFR
conditions (and local IFR conditions) aft 25/21Z. SFC wind SLY/SWLY
at 5-12 kts thru 25/16Z, then increasing SFC wind, with SFC wind at
most locations of 17-22 kts and gusts to around 30 kts aft 25/18Z
thru the end of the forecast period. Stronger gusts near any -TSRA.
In the vicinity of KALK, expect SWLY SFC wind to increase to 20-28
kts and gusts to 35-40 kts between 25/22Z and 26/12Z. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A strong storm system will move across the region
through Tuesday, resulting in valley rain and mountain snow, along
with colder temperatures. Snow levels may fall as low as 3,000 to
4,000 feet today and down to 2,500 feet late tonight and Tuesday.
Strong and gusty winds are expected this afternoon and tonight, with
gusts to between 30-40 mph. Dry conditions are then expected
Wednesday through Thursday night. Another storm system will then
move across the area Friday into Saturday, resulting in another
chance of precipitation.

&&

.CLIMATE...
January Snowfall Records for Reference (Low Elevation Sites).

Location...........1-Day..............................Monthly......
Tucson.............4.3".....Jan. 16,.1987.............4.7".....1987
Oracle.............15.0"....Jan. 29,.1979.............17.0"....1979
Nogales............5.5".....Jan. 6,..1997.............5.5".....1997
Benson.............2.0".....Jan. 22,.2007.............2.0".....2007
Tombstone..........12.0"....Jan. 16,.1916.............14.0"....1916
Sierra Vista.......4.0".....Jan. 7,..1997.............4.1".....1997
Willcox............6.0".....Jan. 22,.1938.............9.0".....1916
Bisbee.............11.5"....Jan. 18,.1988.............15.5"....1998
Douglas............4.0".....Jan. 12,.1951.............7.0".....1949
Safford............3.0".....Jan. 14,.1997.............5.0".....1997

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
  Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM today to 5 PM MST Tuesday for
  AZZ503-507-508-510>514.

  Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM today to 5 PM MST Tuesday for
  AZZ503-506>510-512-514-515.

  Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM today to 5 PM MST Tuesday for
  AZZ504.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
147 PM MST Mon Jan 25 2021

AZZ502-504-252130-
Tohono O'odham Nation including Sells-Tucson Metro Area including
Tucson/Green Valley/Marana/Vail-
147 PM MST Mon Jan 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL PIMA AND
SOUTHWESTERN PINAL COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM MST...

At 146 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles north of Pisinemo, or 30 miles northwest of Sells, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

Hail up to half an inch and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible
with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Santa Rosa, Covered Wells, Anegam, San Simon, North Komelik, Kohatk,
Palo Verde Stand, Ventana, Ak Chin, Vaya Chin, Mountain Village, San
Luis, Santa Rosa School and San Simon West.

LAT...LON 3232 11251 3251 11235 3251 11221 3267 11220
      3268 11220 3268 11216 3272 11215 3272 11211
      3233 11167 3202 11229
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 236DEG 32KT 3222 11226

RH