Fire Weather Watch 7, NWS Tucson, AZ

524 
WWUS85 KTWC 141219
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
519 AM MST Wed Apr 14 2021

AZZ151>154-142300-
/O.CON.KTWC.FW.A.0007.210415T1900Z-210416T0300Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151
Western half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southeast corner of Pinal County-
Extreme Eastern Pima County-Western third of Cochise County-
Santa Cruz County-TDC-Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Eastern half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southwest Graham County and Eastern two thirds of
Cochise County-Southern San Carlos Reservation-
Southern Greenlee County below 5000 feet-TDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 153
Northern Graham County-Northern Greenlee County-
White and Gila Mountains-Apache Sitgreaves NF-
Southern San Carlos Reservation above 5000 feet-SDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 154
Forest Woodlands FDRA including the Sky Islands of Southeast
Arizona above 5500 feet-Coronado NF-TDC-
519 AM MST Wed Apr 14 2021

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY AND A
HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONES
152, 153, 154 AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 151...

* AFFECTED AREA...Eastern portions of southeast Arizona 
  including all of Cochise and Greenlee counties, all but far 
  northwest Graham County, and from the Santa Rita and Rincon 
  Mountains eastward in Santa Cruz and Pima counties. 

* TIMING...Thursday afternoon and evening.

* WINDS...Southwest to west winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 35
  to 40 mph. The strongest winds will be in the mountains and 
  near the New Mexico state line. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...Minimum relative humidity 5 to 10 percent
  at lower elevations, and 10 to 15 percent in the mountains. 

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop or are ongoing will have the 
  potential to spread rapidly.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...Visit 
  weather.gov/Tucson and click on the Detailed Hazards Icon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of the Fire Weather Watch for portions of Southeast
Arizona.

&&

$$

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072 
WWUS85 KTWC 142120
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
220 PM MST Wed Apr 14 2021

AZZ151>154-151200-
/O.UPG.KTWC.FW.A.0007.210415T1900Z-210416T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KTWC.FW.W.0011.210415T1900Z-210416T0300Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151
Western half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southeast corner of Pinal County-
Extreme Eastern Pima County-Western third of Cochise County-
Santa Cruz County-TDC-Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Eastern half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southwest Graham County and Eastern two thirds of
Cochise County-Southern San Carlos Reservation-
Southern Greenlee County below 5000 feet-TDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 153
Northern Graham County-Northern Greenlee County-
White and Gila Mountains-Apache Sitgreaves NF-
Southern San Carlos Reservation above 5000 feet-SDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 154
Forest Woodlands FDRA including the Sky Islands of Southeast
Arizona above 5500 feet-Coronado NF-TDC-
220 PM MST Wed Apr 14 2021

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR
STRONG WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING FOR 
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONES 152, 153, 154 AND EASTERN 
PORTIONS OF ZONE 151...

The National Weather Service in Tucson has issued a Red Flag
Warning, which is in effect from noon to 8 PM MST Thursday. The
Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect. 

* AFFECTED AREA...Eastern portions of southeast Arizona 
  including all of Cochise and Greenlee counties, all but far 
  northwest Graham County, and from the Santa Rita and Rincon 
  Mountains eastward in Santa Cruz and Pima Counties.

* TIMING...Noon to 8 PM MST Thursday.

* WINDS...West to southwest winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts of 
  35 to 40 mph. The strongest winds will be in the mountains and 
  near the New Mexico state line. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...Minimum relative humidity 5 to 10 percent 
  at lower elevations, and 10 to 15 percent in the mountains.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop or are ongoing will have the 
  potential to spread rapidly.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...Visit
  weather.gov/Tucson and click on the Detailed Hazards Icon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or are expected to develop. A
combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and dry
vegetation will create the potential for rapid and erratic fire
growth.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of the Red Flag Warning for portions of Southeast Arizona.

&&

$$


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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
213 AM MST Tue Apr 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather will continue this week with afternoon
breeziness each day. Daytime high temperatures will remain above
normal through Wednesday, lowering to near normal by the end of the
work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Dry westerly flow continues today as the gradient
tightens slightly as an upper low drops into the Great Basin. This
will result in a few degrees of cooling compared to Monday with an
uptick in winds today. While afternoon winds will fall into the
breezy category and elevated fire weather concerns are expected,
they will remain below critical levels. See Fire Weather discussion
below for more information.

A very similar regime is expected Wednesday with continued breezy
afternoon winds. As the aforementioned upper low/trough axis swing
east on Thursday that will result in slightly stronger winds
Thursday afternoon with temperatures dropping an additional few
degrees to seasonable normals as moisture remains to the north of
the state.

The next system to impact our forecast area will likely be later
Saturday into Sunday as a positively tilted trough drops into
Arizona from the north. Still some differences on the exact track of
this system and moisture availability but a few showers are possible
mainly for the White Mountains. Meanwhile, breezy afternoons will
continue through the weekend with temperatures near or just slightly
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 14/12Z.
SKC conditions/clear skies thru 13/18Z, then FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20k
ft MSL thru the remainder of the forecast period. SFC wind less than
12 kts and variable in direction thru 13/17Z and then again aft
14/06Z. Between 13/17Z and 14/06Z, SLY/SWLY SFC wind at 14-20 kts
with gusts to 25-30 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect dry conditions through the upcoming week
across much of southeast Arizona, with a slight chance of showers in
the White Mountains Saturday into Monday. Breezy winds will continue
each afternoon and early evening into the upcoming weekend. Expect
the strongest winds this afternoon and then again on Thursday. 20-ft
wind speeds will be at 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph this
afternoon to the south and east of Tucson and portions of Cochise
County may see brief critical fire weather conditions. Stronger
winds are expected Thursday afternoon and much of southeast Arizona
may see critical fire weather conditions. Minimum RH values will
continue to be in the single digits to lower teens into at least
Saturday. Temperatures will slowly lower to near normal by Thursday
and then continue to be within a couple of degrees of normal through
the upcoming weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

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