Fire Weather Watch 5, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS85 KTWC 290956
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
256 AM MST Mon Mar 29 2021

AZZ151-152-154-300000-
/O.CON.KTWC.FW.A.0005.210330T1900Z-210331T0200Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151
Western half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southeast corner of Pinal County-
Extreme Eastern Pima County-Western third of Cochise County-
Santa Cruz County-TDC-Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Eastern half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southwest Graham County and Eastern two thirds of
Cochise County-Southern San Carlos Reservation-
Southern Greenlee County below 5000 feet-TDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 154
Forest Woodlands FDRA including the Sky Islands of Southeast
Arizona above 5500 feet-Coronado NF-TDC-
256 AM MST Mon Mar 29 2021

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY AND A HIGH
FIRE DANGER RATING FOR PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONES 151, 152,
AND 154...

* AFFECTED AREA...The eastern half of fire weather zone 151, 
  most of fire weather zone 152 and the eastern mountain ranges 
  of fire weather zone 154. 

* TIMING...Noon MST through 7 PM MST Tuesday.

* WINDS...Westerly winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
  

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...Minimum humidity values ranging from 6 to 10
  percent during the afternoon in lower elevations, and between 8
  and 14 percent in the mountains.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop or are ongoing will have the 
  potential to spread rapidly.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...Visit 
  weather.gov/Tucson and click on the Detailed Hazards Icon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of the Fire Weather Watch for portions of Southeast
Arizona.

&&

$$


Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

414 
WWUS85 KTWC 292058
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
158 PM MST Mon Mar 29 2021

AZZ151-152-154-301200-
/O.UPG.KTWC.FW.A.0005.210330T1900Z-210331T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KTWC.FW.W.0007.210330T1900Z-210331T0200Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151
Western half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southeast corner of Pinal County-
Extreme Eastern Pima County-Western third of Cochise County-
Santa Cruz County-TDC-Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Eastern half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southwest Graham County and Eastern two thirds of
Cochise County-Southern San Carlos Reservation-
Southern Greenlee County below 5000 feet-TDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 154
Forest Woodlands FDRA including the Sky Islands of Southeast
Arizona above 5500 feet-Coronado NF-TDC-
158 PM MST Mon Mar 29 2021

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM MST TUESDAY FOR
STRONG WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING FOR
PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONES 151, 152, AND 154...

The National Weather Service in Tucson has issued a Red Flag
Warning, which is in effect from noon to 7 PM MST Tuesday. The
Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect. 

* AFFECTED AREA...The eastern half of fire weather zone 151, most
  of fire weather zone 152 and the eastern mountain ranges of 
  fire weather zone 154.

* TIMING...Noon MST through 7 PM MST Tuesday.

* WINDS...Westerly winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35-40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...Minimum humidity values ranging from 6 to 10
  percent during the afternoon in lower elevations and between 8 
  and 14 percent in the mountains. 

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop or are ongoing will have the 
  potential to spread rapidly.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...Visit
  weather.gov/Tucson and click on the Detailed Hazards Icon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or are expected to develop. A
combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and dry
vegetation will create the potential for rapid and erratic fire
growth.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of the Red Flag Warning for portions of Southeast Arizona.

&&

$$

Zell

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
227 PM MST Sun Mar 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures will continue into next
weekend. Expect high clouds from time to time, along with breezy
conditions on Tuesday and then again late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Strong high pressure aloft continues to build in from
the west across the desert southwest. This will continue the warming
trend, as highs warm another 6-9 degrees today above yesterday's
readings. There will be some easterly breezes into the evening hours
tonight before diminishing. Daytime highs warm another 5-8 degrees
on Monday, which will push readings to 10-15 degrees above normal
for late March. Highs on Monday will top out in the 80s across the
lower elevations of southeast Arizona, with upper 80s from Tucson
westward. Would not be surprised to see a few 90+ degree readings
across far western Pima County in the vicinity of Why, Ajo and Organ
Pipe. The latest NBM probabilities have a 6% chance for 90 degrees
at the Tucson International Airport Monday.

A system then moves across the Great Basin Monday night and Tuesday,
which will the lower height field and temperatures across southeast
Arizona. Highs will cool 2-5 degrees on Tuesday, but still remain
above normal. The main impact from this system will be the increase
in wind speeds, especially to the east of Tucson. Near critical to
critical fire weather conditions are expected during the afternoon
and early evening hours across eastern Santa Cruz, Cochise and
Graham Counties with wind speeds around 20 mph and minimum relative
humidity values of 7-15 percent. A Fire Weather Watch has been
issued for those areas mentioned above from Noon until 7 pm MST on
Tuesday. For more information on the Fire Weather Watch refer to the
PHXRFWTWC product.

As this system moves east on Wednesday, the strong ridge of high
pressure rebuilds across much of the western United States into next
weekend. High temperatures warm back up to well above normal during
this stretch, with the probabilities of the first 90 degree day in
Tucson this year occurring on Thursday at 46% and 58% on Friday.
Lower to mid 90s are expected for central and far western Pima
County Thursday and Friday. Little change in daytime temperatures is
then expected next weekend.

One thing to keep an eye on is a weak disturbance which moves east
across southern Arizona on Friday. While this disturbance will be
dry, the models try to pull some moisture back westward into far
eastern portions of the forecast area (along the New Mexico state
line) in advance of this disturbance. With strong surface heating
and this mid-level moisture seep, it may be just enough to kick off
a thunderstorm or two across the higher terrain from the northern
end of the Chiricahua Mountains northward into the White Mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 30/00Z.
SKC into early Monday morning with SCT-BKN cirrus developing Monday
afternoon. Gusty E/SE SFC winds 12-16 kts with gusts around 25 kts
expected into this evening. Speeds and gusts decrease overnight, but
ELY direction persists into Monday morning. SFC winds then WLY/SWLY
10-15 kts with gusts to 22 kts Monday afternoon. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions are expected this week with
widespread single digit minimum RHs beginning Monday with fair
overnight recoveries. Breezy easterly winds continue into this
evening then diminish overnight. Westerly winds increase on Tuesday
with at least localized critical fire weather conditions possible
for many locations east of a Tucson to Nogales line. As such there
is a Fire Weather Watch in effect for these areas from 12 pm through
7 pm MST Tuesday. Elevated east winds occur Wednesday and Thursday
but should not reach critical thresholds.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
  Fire Weather Watch Tuesday from Noon through 7 PM MST for
  AZZ151-152-154.

&&

Discussion...Zell
Aviation/Fire Weather...Carpenter

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson