Fire Weather Watch 2, NWS Tucson, AZ

693 
WWUS85 KTWC 022140
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
240 PM MST Tue Mar 2 2021

AZZ150-031200-
/O.UPG.KTWC.FW.A.0002.210303T1800Z-210304T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KTWC.FW.W.0002.210303T1800Z-210304T0100Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 150
Sonoran FDRA-Most of Pima County-South Central Pinal County-
Tohono O'odham Nation-Tucson Metropolitan area-TDC-
240 PM MST Tue Mar 2 2021

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS, LOW RELATIVE 
HUMIDITY AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 150...

The National Weather Service in Tucson has issued a Red Flag
Warning, which is in effect from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Wednesday. The
Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect. 

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire weather zone 150.

* TIMING...Late Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon.

* WINDS...South to southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 
  mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...9 to 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop or are ongoing will have the 
  potential to spread rapidly.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...Visit 
  weather.gov/Tucson and click on the Detailed Hazards Icon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or are expected to develop. A
combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and dry
vegetation will create the potential for rapid and erratic fire
growth.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of the Red Flag Warning for portions of Southeast Arizona.

&&

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
222 PM MST Mon Mar 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer temperatures the next couple of days before
another storm system brings a chance of showers Wednesday evening
into Thursday morning. Thereafter, dry and warmer Friday into
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A shortwave ridge in between weather systems will
bring warmer temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. An enhanced
easterly gradient will keep winds up a little overnight, which
will in turn keep temperatures from crashing as low as last night.

The next storm system is digging down the west coast, just off
northern California this afternoon. Ultimately it will drop down
as far south as far northern Baja, which can make timing
problematic. However, the split for this feature is on a short
leash, with a solid nudge eastward from a kicker system out of
the Gulf of Alaska as early as Tuesday night. This likely won't
give it enough time to engage a deeper moisture fetch before
filling as it pushes into the western flank of the new mean ridge
position. That means the best moisture and dynamics couplet will
probably lift north of our area as it tracks through the state.

The high amplitude broad ridge through the region will clean up a
bit after that, with temperatures climbing to 10 to 12 degrees
above average over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 03/00Z.
Clear skies thru the forecast period. SFC wind ELY/SELY at 10-18 kts
and gusts up to 30 kts diminishing to 8-15 kts with gusts up to 25
kts aft 02/03Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and breezy easterly winds through
midday Tuesday. There will be a slight chance of showers late
Wednesday into early Thursday, mainly north of Tucson as a storm
system moves across the region. Dry conditions and warmer
temperatures return by Friday and continue into early next week.
Daytime high temperatures over the upcoming weekend will be 7-10
degrees above normal.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Public...Meyer
Aviation...Cerniglia
Fire Weather....Cerniglia

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