Blowing Dust Advisory 6, NWS Tucson, AZ

577 
WWUS75 KTWC 090303
NPWTWC

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
803 PM MST Thu Jul 8 2021


AZZ501-502-505-090415-
/O.EXP.KTWC.DU.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-210709T0300Z/
Western Pima County-Tohono O'odham Nation-
South Central Pinal County-
Including the cities of Ajo, Organ Pipe Cactus N.M., Sells, 
and Picacho Peak State Park
803 PM MST Thu Jul 8 2021

...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

The threat for blowing dust had ended. Thus, the advisory was
allowed to expire. 

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
937 AM MST Thu Jul 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...We'll keep enough moisture around for isolated to
scattered thunderstorms the next few days, with temperatures running
several degrees above average for much of the area. Conditions look
favorable for an increase in thunderstorm chances by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Another low grade monsoon day, meaning some convection
affecting a few locations but certainly not a lot of activity.
Morning sounding is just a touch drier than yesterday, however not
significantly so, and the mid level inversion is still in place
although a bit lower in altitude and just a tad stronger. The flow
aloft is a bit more easterly than 24 hours ago so the main focus of
any convection off the Rim will head to the west-southwest, primarily
affecting areas fairly well north of a Safford to Tucson line with
portions of Pinal county a problem. The convection will be late to
start again with our forecast area likely affected during the
evening hours. Some concern for outflow generated dust, but similar
to last night feel that given the time of day and trajectory mainly
north of our area, it is not a large concern at this time.

Other area to watch for is central and western Pima county,
basically the Tohono O'odham Nation westward. MU Cape and moisture
are very high out there although with a lack of terrain forcing it
will be difficult to get convection going despite sunshine. If/once
it does the main concern there would be heavy rainers. Thankfully
storms shouldn't be all that slow moving as the head toward the west
which will help to mitigate this a bit.

No updates planed at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 09/12Z.
SCT clouds 8k-12k ft MSL through the period except SCT-BKN with
layers above at times in the afternoon and evening. Isolated
SHRA/TSRA. Wind gusts to 40 kts possible near any TSRA. Otherwise,
surface winds generally out of the east and south at 5-10 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday best storm chances will be over
the T.O. Nation and White Mountains, then along the international
border and White Mountains over the weekend. Next week additional
moisture begins to move back in leading to better storm chances
area wide. Min RH values will generally be in the 15-25 percent
range for lower elevations through early next week with very good
overnight recoveries before increasing by Tuesday. Gusty east
winds at times today, otherwise generally winds will be light and
follow normal daily trends when not influenced by storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 AM MST Thu Jul 8 2021/

DISCUSSION...Our pattern of increasing moisture from outflows in
the evening hours with plenty of room to mix out in the
afternoons will continue. Combined with relatively warm mid levels
as high pressure rebuilds over the region, and this will result
in overall below average thunderstorm coverage into the weekend
(aside from some active evenings depending on steering flow and
subsequent outflow propagation).

A surge from the gulf and direct outflow from Sonora is underway
as expected. 20kts up to 4k ft deep showing on the KYUX VWP. Yuma
surface dewpoint has responded with a 12 degree jump compared to
yesterday, up to 70 at this hour. Even with periodic surge
activity, we will struggle to maintain typical Monsoon level
thunderstorm coverage for much of our area for the time being,
with deepest moisture in western areas.

By early next week we expect to return to deep monsoon
thunderstorm activity even without the high in a favorable
position. Sustained deep surge for fuel and easterly wave activity
to help organize things. Conditions continue to look more
favorable for strong wet microburst activity by Monday or Tuesday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Public...Cerniglia
Aviation...Rasmussen
Fire Weather....Rasmussen

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