Blowing Dust Advisory 5, NWS Tucson, AZ

130 
WWUS75 KTWC 282226
NPWTWC

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
326 PM MST Mon Jun 28 2021

AZZ502-504>506-290300-
/O.CON.KTWC.DU.Y.0005.210628T2300Z-210629T0300Z/
Tohono O'odham Nation-Tucson Metro Area-
South Central Pinal County-Southeast Pinal County-
Including the cities of Sells, Tucson, Green Valley, Marana, 
Vail, Picacho Peak State Park, Mammoth, and Oracle
326 PM MST Mon Jun 28 2021

...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Visibility between one quarter mile and one mile in 
  blowing dust expected later this afternoon into this evening 
  associated with thunderstorm outflows moving in from east or 
  northeast.

* WHERE...Tohono O'odham Nation, Tucson Metro Area, South 
  Central Pinal County and Southeast Pinal County.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to reduced 
  visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not drive into an area of blowing dust.
Remember, Pull Aside, Stay Alive.

&&

$$

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770 
WWUS75 KTWC 290252
NPWTWC

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
752 PM MST Mon Jun 28 2021

AZZ502-504>506-290400-
/O.EXP.KTWC.DU.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-210629T0300Z/
Tohono O'odham Nation-Tucson Metro Area-
South Central Pinal County-Southeast Pinal County-
Including the cities of Sells, Tucson, Green Valley, Marana, 
Vail, Picacho Peak State Park, Mammoth, and Oracle
752 PM MST Mon Jun 28 2021

...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MST THIS EVENING...

Although a generalized outflow boundary continues to push west at
25-30 mph across Southeast Pinal county this evening, the threat 
of significant or widespread blowing dust has subsided. Therefore,
the blowing dust advisory has been allowed to expire at 8 PM MST. 

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
940 AM MST Mon Jun 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Moisture continues to increase with daily afternoon
showers and thunderstorms expected. Temperature will be cooler
than average thanks to storms and cloud cover.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Sunny and hazy this morning as the area has seen an
increase in low level moisture which accounts for the haziness
along with some smoke and dust mixed in. Surface dewpoints as of
9 am where mostly in upper 40s to upper 50s with localized spots
in the lower 60s. PW values across SE AZ were mostly in the 0.75"
to 1" range with up to 1.40" across SW NM where they saw a lot of
thunderstorm activity yesterday afternoon/evening associated with
an upper level trof/weak upper low in the area. That upper level
trof/weak upper low will be a player in our forecast for the next
several days.

For today, the most recent CAMS initialize convection across the
White mountains around 12 noon and along the International border
a little later. The storms will move to the S/SW with a few of
the Rim storms getting rather frisky across Graham county this
afternoon. Strong thunderstorm outflow from the Rim storms, shown
on the UofA WRF runs, will be moving west across Pinal, eastern
and central Pima county later this afternoon into this evening. In
coordination with WFO PSR will hoist a blowing dust advisory for
late this afternoon into early this evening, or from 4 pm to 8 pm.
Relatively fast movement of storms will limit the threat of flash
flooding.

Deeper moisture will continue to move into the area over the next
several days are surges of moisture move north up the Gulf of CA
associated with Hurricane Enrique which will have weakened to a
tropical storm when it approaches the southern tip of Baja
Wednesday morning. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be rather active
as the above mentioned trof over SW NM moves west across the area
as an inverted trof. With PW values ranging from 1.25" east to 2"
west with localized flooding possible, especially for the wildfire
scars of the past two years.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 29/12Z.
FEW-SCT clouds 10k-15k ft MSL becoming SCT-BKN this afternoon into
the evening with SCT -SHRA/TSRA east and south of KTUS. Skies
clearing again late tonight. Wind gusts up to 45 kts possible with
TSRA. Otherwise, SFC winds E/SE 10-25 kts with gusts to 35 kts this
morning easing to 8-15 kts this afternoon. E/SE winds increasing
again to 12-20 kts overnight. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monsoon season (the wet part) effectively starts
this week. Moisture will increase over the next several days
resulting in cooler afternoon temperatures, higher humidity levels
and an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms. Today,
thunderstorms will be primarily confined to areas east and south of
Tucson and especially the mountains of northern Graham and Greenlee
counties where ongoing fires will be under the threat of
thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds (to 45 mph) and brief heavy
rain which could result in local runoff problems. Gusty easterly
winds this morning will return tonight then beyond that, general
winds will remain light.

Tuesday onward, increased moisture will result in the potential for
afternoon/evening thunderstorms anywhere in southern Arizona with an
initiation focus generally over the higher terrain. Besides
lightning, the primary threats will remain strong winds and brief
heavy rains which could be problematic over area burn scars. Through
this period, min RHs will be 25-35% in the valleys and 40-50% over
higher terrain with very good to excellent overnight recoveries.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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