Areal Flood Warning 5, NWS Tucson, AZ

485 
WGUS85 KTWC 171754
FLSTWC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1054 AM MST Sat Jul 17 2021

AZC019-172315-
/O.CON.KTWC.FA.W.0005.000000T0000Z-210717T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
1054 AM MST Sat Jul 17 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON 
FOR CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

At 1054 AM MST, The Vamori Wash on the Tohono O'odham Nation near 
Kom Vo or west of Sells continued to show a slow but steady rise in 
water levels this morning. The stage was at 9.61 feet with a flow of 
674 cubic feet per second. At this level, the highway 21 bridge 
approaches flood and the road might be impassable especially if the 
wash rises above 9.8 feet.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Highway 21, and the communities of Santa Cruz and Kom Vo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3194 11221 3196 11227 3197 11235 3195 11237
      3193 11237 3189 11236 3188 11237 3186 11237
      3184 11237 3183 11238 3182 11235 3187 11236
      3188 11234 3190 11234 3193 11235 3194 11234
      3195 11233 3193 11221

$$

GL

613 
WGUS85 KTWC 172316
FLSTWC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
416 PM MST Sat Jul 17 2021

AZC019-172326-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FA.W.0005.000000T0000Z-210717T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
416 PM MST Sat Jul 17 2021

...FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.  However, 
additional rainfall has fallen in the basin, so flow could remain 
elevated.

LAT...LON 3194 11221 3196 11227 3197 11235 3195 11237
      3193 11237 3189 11236 3188 11237 3186 11237
      3184 11237 3183 11238 3182 11235 3187 11236
      3188 11234 3190 11234 3193 11235 3194 11234
      3195 11233 3193 11221

$$

MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
237 AM MST Sat Jul 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms continue over
the next seven days. High temperatures will remain below normal into
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...After several days of beneficial rain and some
hazardous runoff from locally heavy downpours, the larger washes and
mainstem rivers were starting to respond more than in previous days.
Elevated flows were occurring on the San Pedro River early this
morning, especially from St. David downstream to Redington and
Mammoth. The Vamori Wash near Kom Vo was also experiencing near
impactful levels to the bridge on highway 21. Otherwise, the radar
was rather quiet early this morning compared to several mornings
this past week. The inverted shortwave trough which aided in the
development of showers and thunderstorms yesterday will track
farther west today over southern AZ. Subsidence in the wake of this
feature should limit the areal coverage of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, but high resolution models supported
nocturnal storms again tonight into early Sunday morning. Although
the air mass remained very moist, a decrease in areal coverage of
heavy rainfall today should mitigate the need for another flash
flood watch. The ensemble means favor an active weather pattern this
coming week as the upper high amplifies and becomes centered over
the Four Corners on Sunday. That said, heavy rainfall and elevated
flows in area washes and rivers will continue to be a concern the
next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 18/12Z.
FEW-SCT clouds at 11k-15k ft MSL and BKN-OVC clouds AOA 20k ft MSL
thru 17/17Z, then SCT-BKN clouds at 8k-12k ft MSL til 18/04Z. Slowly
diminishing clouds aft 18/04Z. Slight chance of -SHRA/-TSRA thru
17/18Z, then scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA developing and
persisting through the evening hours tonight before diminishing.
Wind gusts to 45 kts possible near any TSRA along with MVFR
conditions and mountain obscurations. Otherwise, SFC wind generally
less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...There will be a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms across most of southeast Arizona the next week. Gusty
outflow winds will be the primary concern with the daily storms. Min
RH values will be in the 27-37 percent range at the lower
elevations, with higher values in the mountains. 20-foot winds will
generally be less than 15 mph and follow normal diurnal trends when
not influenced by thunderstorms.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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