Areal Flood Advisory 5, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
118 PM MST Thu Jul 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into
this evening with daily storm chances continuing into early next
week. Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal through Monday
then warm slightly to normal.

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.DISCUSSION...Latest KEMX radar imagery depicts scattered showers
and thunderstorms from the Tucson area eastward. The mode of the
convection thus far has been that of lower topped heavy rainers with
the storms not being too strong. This is likely due to some of the
capping observed on the 12Z KTWC sounding. As daytime heating
continues, a few of the storms may become stronger with a continued
heavy rainfall threat due to PWAT values around 1.5 inches and a
fairly slow movement to the west. We've already had a report of up
to 0.5" in around 15 minutes near the Willcox area. Gusty outflows
winds will remain possible as well. Showers and thunderstorms should
diminish later this evening but with a weak mid level inverted
trough over eastern sections, we can't rule out some showers
sustaining themselves into the overnight hours.

From Friday and through the weekend, the overall pattern remains
favorable with deep moisture in place with PWAT values of 1.5" to
1.75" from Tucson west expected and 1.3" to 1.5" east of Tucson.
However, it's still a bit challenging in picking out which day(s)
will be the most active. Model guidance is indicating a continuation
of an inverted trough feature extending northward from Sonora into
southern Arizona which may help to enhance convection. However, one
negative is slightly warmer H5 temperatures of -4C to -5C moving in
for Friday and this weekend so we'll have to see how things shake
out.

The mid/upper level high will become stronger early next week as its
centered across northern Arizona. This will result in a more of a
northeasterly flow which could mean things get more active off the
rim. However, there might be some mid level drying that could limit
overall coverage. Will maintain a fairly standard monsoon forecast
during this time frame.

Daytime temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal through
the weekend, then warm up to seasonable levels early next week.

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.AVIATION...Valid through 03/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds 10k-14k ft MSL through the period with layers above
at times. Expect scattered SHRA/TSRA thru 02/03Z with coverage
gradually diminishing thereafter through Friday morning, then
increasing again after 02/18Z. SFC winds light and variable except
potential gusts to 45 kts vicinity TSRA. Partial mountain
obscuration at times in clouds and SHRA/TSRA. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

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.FIRE WEATHER...Monsoonal moisture will remain across the area
allowing for varying amounts of daily showers and thunderstorms into
next week. Humidity levels will remain elevated with afternoon mins
about 25-35% in the valleys and 45-55% in the mountains with very
good overnight recoveries. General winds will be light through the
week and following normal daily trends when not influenced by
storms. Any thunderstorm from here forward, especially during the
afternoon or early evening hours will have the potential to produce
strong, gusty outflows.

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.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

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