Alert archive / Arizona / Areal Flood Advisories in 2021

Areal Flood Advisory 23, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 10, 2021Pima County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this areal flood advisory at Jul 10, 2021, 8:48 PM MST for Pima County, Arizona. It was in force for 117 min.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 10, 2021, 8:48 PM MST (03:48 UTC)
Expired: Jul 10, 2021, 10:45 PM MST
In force: 117 min
Issued by: NWS Tucson, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon

County Pima County, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 112 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 00:00Z, 3.8 hours before the alert went out and 84 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1025 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -55 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 3304 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -32 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 45 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this areal flood advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this areal flood advisory went out at Jul 10, 2:00 PM MST, 6 hours 48 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 10, 2:00 PM MST, 6 hours 48 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
200 PM MST Sat Jul 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

Southern Arizona will remain in an active pattern for isolated
thunderstorms and hot daytime highs for the next several days.
Impacts will include blowing dust, potential flash flooding and
gusty and erratic winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Lots of sunshine has allowed energy to build across Southern Arizona
today, with Marana and Tucson already at 105 degrees each.

High resolution models have continued to point to an active late
afternoon start to isolated thunderstorm activity initiating off of
the Mogollon Rim. Some convection has already started in Northern
Greenlee County, moving swiftly southwestward. With PW values at
or above 1.5 inches, heavy localized rainfall will be one of the
main impacts to watch for the rest of today. Even with fast moving
storms, the flash flooding potential does remain, especially over
dry areas and existing burn scars. Additionally, due to the
potential for stronger updrafts and accompanying outflow, blowing
dust will be an issue for parts of Pinal and Pima County through
the evening hours. Therefore, in coordination with WFO Phoenix,
we've issued a Blowing Dust Advisory for those areas valid from
00-06 UTC.

Another interesting wrinkle is the HREF is highlighting areas near
the US/MX border with some interesting updraft helicity
probabilities. If storms do fire in those areas, close attention
will need to be paid to their structure.

Sunday brings another chance for isolated thunderstorm activity,
which will continue well into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 12/00Z.
ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA over the White Mountains this afternoon will
propagate to the southwest through late this evening. Best timing
for thunderstorms affecting KTUS is between 11/01z and 11/07z, and
KOLS between 02-06z. Wind gusts to 50 kts possible near the
strongest TSRA. Otherwise, surface winds less than 12 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are again
possible today, forming off the Mogollon Rim this afternoon and
moving to the SW during the evening and overnight hours. Gusty
outflow winds will be the primary concern with these storms. Min RH
values will generally be in the 15-25 percent range for lower
elevations through Monday with very good overnight recoveries before
increasing Tuesday onward. Surface winds will be light and follow
normal daily trends when not influenced by storms.

&&

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blowing Dust Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM MST this
evening for AZZ501-502-504>506.

&&

Public...Singer
Aviation...Dang
Fire Weather....Dang

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 10, 7:15 PM MST, 1 hour 33 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jul 10, 7:24 PM MST, 1 hour 24 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jul 10, 7:42 PM MST, 1 hour 6 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jul 10, 7:54 PM MST, 54 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jul 10, 7:55 PM MST, 53 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jul 10, 8:10 PM MST, 38 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 10, 5:10 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Cochise	2 hr
Jul 10, 5:14 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise, Graham	61 min
Jul 10, 5:15 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise	45 min
Jul 10, 5:23 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Santa Cruz	52 min
Jul 10, 5:30 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise	60 min
Jul 10, 5:42 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Santa Cruz	2 hr
Jul 10, 5:46 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise, Pima, Santa Cruz	59 min
Jul 10, 6:05 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Santa Cruz	40 min
Jul 10, 6:13 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise, Graham	26 min
Jul 10, 6:22 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima, Santa Cruz	53 min
Jul 10, 6:50 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC		25 min
Jul 10, 6:57 PM MST	Dust Storm Warning	TWC	Pima, Santa Cruz	63 min
Jul 10, 6:57 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima, Santa Cruz	48 min
Jul 10, 7:06 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise, Pima	39 min
Jul 10, 7:07 PM MST	Dust Storm Warning	TWC	Pima, Pinal	83 min
Jul 10, 7:14 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	61 min
Jul 10, 7:29 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Cochise, Pima	2 hr
Jul 10, 7:35 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise, Pima	55 min
Jul 10, 8:00 PM MST	Dust Storm Warning	TWC	Pima, Pinal	86 min
Jul 10, 8:06 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	39 min
Jul 10, 8:12 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	48 min
Jul 10, 8:22 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	113 min
Jul 10, 8:29 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	61 min
Jul 10, 8:40 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima, Pinal	66 min
Jul 10, 8:41 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	2 hr
Jul 10, 8:51 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima	114 min
Jul 10, 8:51 PM MST	Tornado Warning	TWC	Pima	14 min
Jul 10, 9:45 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC		60 min
Jul 10, 10:03 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	42 min
Jul 10, 10:20 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima, Pinal	3 hr
Jul 10, 10:36 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima	3 hr
Jul 11, 4:12 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Greenlee	33 min
Jul 11, 4:44 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Greenlee	46 min

Nearby

Areal Flood Advisories in Arizona, 2021 Every areal flood advisory in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.