Areal Flood Advisory 103, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
155 PM MST Fri Jul 30 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be
anticipated this evening and Saturday. Thereafter, the overall trend
in thunderstorm coverage will be less for most of next week and
focused south and east of Tucson. High temperatures will trend up
next week with readings peaking around Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery was showing a few showers and
thunderstorms already developing, mainly in the mountains, early
this afternoon. The general area of concern for flash flooding will
be west of Tucson where a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect
through late tonight for western and central Pima county. The
greater Tucson metro will be on the fringes, so cannot rule out an
isolated thunderstorm with heavy downpours impacting the city.
Ensembles favored a decreasing trend in daily thunderstorm coverage
Sunday into the work week with no strong signal indicating
otherwise. High temperatures will also peak slightly above normal
around Tuesday based on limited thunderstorm activity and a
relatively drier airmass in place.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 01/00Z.
Increasing clouds into this evening becoming SCT-BKN 10k-14k ft MSL.
ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA through early Saturday morning with strong
erratic wind gusts in excess of 30 kts, heavy downpours, and
temporary MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA redeveloping Saturday
afternoon. Outside of TSRA outflows, SFC wind will generally remain
less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered showers and thunderstorms area-wide today
before a downward trend in storm activity this weekend into early
next week when storm chances will mainly be from Tucson eastward.
Storms will likely produce erratic, gusty winds and locally heavy
downpours. RH values remain well above critical thresholds through
at least the middle of next week. Temps will remain near to slightly
below normal. 20-foot winds will generally be less than 15 mph when
not influenced by thunderstorms.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
  Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for public zones AZZ501-502.

&&

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