Alert archive / Oklahoma / Winter Storm Watches in 2021

Winter Storm Watch 3, NWS Tulsa, OK

February 12, 20214 counties in Arkansas; 22 counties in Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this winter storm watch at Feb 12, 2021, 3:33 AM CST for 4 counties in Arkansas; 22 counties in Oklahoma. It took effect at Feb 14, 2021, 6:00 AM CST. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 12, 2021, 3:33 AM CST (09:33 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 14, 2021, 6:00 AM CST
Expired
Feb 13, 2021, 3:40 AM CST
In force
Issued by
NWS Tulsa, OK
All 26 counties

Benton County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Madison County, AR, Washington County, AR, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Craig County, OK, Creek County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Latimer County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Washington County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 42 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 176 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2021-02-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 4 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2021-02-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 99 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
4 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
456 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
68 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
99 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
261 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

401 
WWUS44 KTSA 120933
WSWTSA

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
333 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

OKZ060-061-064-121800-
/O.CAN.KTSA.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210212T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KTSA.WS.A.0003.210214T1200Z-210216T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTSA.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-210212T1800Z/
Tulsa-Rogers-Creek-
Including the cities of Tulsa, Claremore, and Sapulpa
333 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills. 
  Wind chills as low as 5 below zero. For the Winter Storm 
  Watch, heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 
  inches possible.

* WHERE...Tulsa, Rogers and Creek Counties.

* WHEN...For the Wind Chill Advisory, until noon CST today. For 
  the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday morning through Monday 
  afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute. The cold wind chills could result in hypothermia if 
  precautions are not taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons should consider delaying travel on Sunday and Monday. If
travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution.
Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such
items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets
and extra clothing.  Also take water, a first aid kit, or anything
else that would help you survive in case you become stranded.

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

ARZ001-OKZ054>059-062-063-067-121800-
/O.NEW.KTSA.WS.A.0003.210214T1200Z-210216T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTSA.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-210212T1800Z/
Benton-Osage-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Mayes-
Delaware-Wagoner-
Including the cities of Rogers, Bentonville, Pawhuska, 
Bartlesville, Nowata, Vinita, Miami, Pawnee, Pryor, Grove, Jay, 
and Wagoner
333 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills. 
  Wind chills as low as 10 below zero. For the Winter Storm 
  Watch, heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 
  inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

* WHEN...For the Wind Chill Advisory, until noon CST today. For 
  the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday morning through Monday 
  afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute. The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed 
  skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons should consider delaying travel on Sunday and Monday. If
travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution.
Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such
items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets
and extra clothing.  Also take water, a first aid kit, or anything
else that would help you survive in case you become stranded.

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

ARZ002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053-065-066-068>076-121800-
/O.NEW.KTSA.WS.A.0003.210214T1200Z-210216T0000Z/
Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Crawford-Franklin-Sebastian-
Pushmataha-Choctaw-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Cherokee-Adair-Muskogee-
McIntosh-Sequoyah-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Le Flore-
Including the cities of Berryville, Eureka Springs, Fayetteville,
Springdale, Huntsville, Van Buren, Ozark, Charleston, Fort Smith,
Antlers, Clayton, Hugo, Okemah, Okmulgee, Tahlequah, Stilwell, 
Muskogee, Checotah, Sallisaw, McAlester, Stigler, Wilburton, 
and Poteau
333 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 
  inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast and southeast 
  Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons should consider delaying travel on Sunday and Monday. If
travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution.
Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such
items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets
and extra clothing.  Also take water, a first aid kit, or anything
else that would help you survive in case you become stranded.

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio,commercial radio or television
for the latest information,forecasts,and warnings.
For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/tsa
5 follow-up statements
286 
WWUS44 KTSA 121623
WSWTSA

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1023 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

ARZ001-OKZ060-064-067-130030-
/O.CAN.KTSA.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-210212T1800Z/
/O.CON.KTSA.WS.A.0003.210214T1200Z-210216T0000Z/
Benton-Tulsa-Creek-Wagoner-
Including the cities of Rogers, Bentonville, Tulsa, Sapulpa, 
and Wagoner
1023 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow will be possible.
  Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible.

* WHERE...In Oklahoma, Creek, Wagoner and Tulsa Counties. In 
  Arkansas, Benton County.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute. The cold wind chills could result in hypothermia if 
  precautions are not taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

OKZ054>059-061>063-130030-
/O.CON.KTSA.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-210212T1800Z/
/O.CON.KTSA.WS.A.0003.210214T1200Z-210216T0000Z/
Osage-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Rogers-Mayes-
Delaware-
Including the cities of Pawhuska, Bartlesville, Nowata, Vinita, 
Miami, Pawnee, Claremore, Pryor, Grove, and Jay
1023 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills. Wind
  chills below 5 below zero at times. For the Winter Storm Watch,
  heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches
  possible.

* WHERE...Tulsa, Rogers and Creek Counties.

* WHEN...For the Wind Chill Advisory, until noon CST today. For 
  the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday morning through Monday 
  afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute. The cold wind chills could result in hypothermia if 
  precautions are not taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves. 

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

ARZ002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053-065-066-068>076-130030-
/O.CON.KTSA.WS.A.0003.210214T1200Z-210216T0000Z/
Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Crawford-Franklin-Sebastian-
Pushmataha-Choctaw-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Cherokee-Adair-Muskogee-
McIntosh-Sequoyah-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Le Flore-
Including the cities of Berryville, Eureka Springs, Fayetteville,
Springdale, Huntsville, Van Buren, Ozark, Charleston, Fort Smith,
Antlers, Clayton, Hugo, Okemah, Okmulgee, Tahlequah, Stilwell, 
Muskogee, Checotah, Sallisaw, McAlester, Stigler, Wilburton, 
and Poteau
1023 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 
  10 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast and southeast 
  Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio,commercial radio or television
for the latest information,forecasts,and warnings.
For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/tsa
570 
WWUS44 KTSA 121805
WSWTSA

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1205 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

OKZ054>059-061>063-130215-
/O.EXP.KTSA.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-210212T1800Z/
/O.CON.KTSA.WS.A.0003.210214T1200Z-210216T0000Z/
Osage-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Rogers-Mayes-
Delaware-
Including the cities of Pawhuska, Bartlesville, Nowata, Vinita, 
Miami, Pawnee, Claremore, Pryor, Grove, and Jay
1205 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 
  inches possible.

* WHERE...Tulsa, Rogers and Creek Counties.

* WHEN...For the Wind Chill Advisory, until noon CST today. For 
  the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday morning through Monday 
  afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute. The cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero could 
  cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053-060-064>076-130215-
/O.CON.KTSA.WS.A.0003.210214T1200Z-210216T0000Z/
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Crawford-Franklin-Sebastian-
Pushmataha-Choctaw-Tulsa-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-
Adair-Muskogee-McIntosh-Sequoyah-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-
Le Flore-
Including the cities of Rogers, Bentonville, Berryville, 
Eureka Springs, Fayetteville, Springdale, Huntsville, Van Buren, 
Ozark, Charleston, Fort Smith, Antlers, Clayton, Hugo, Tulsa, 
Sapulpa, Okemah, Okmulgee, Wagoner, Tahlequah, Stilwell, 
Muskogee, Checotah, Sallisaw, McAlester, Stigler, Wilburton, 
and Poteau
1205 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 
  10 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast and southeast 
  Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio,commercial radio or television
for the latest information,forecasts,and warnings.
For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/tsa
939 
WWUS44 KTSA 122037
WSWTSA

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
237 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

...HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY...

OKZ054>064-131100-
/O.UPG.KTSA.WS.A.0003.210214T1200Z-210216T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KTSA.WS.W.0002.210214T0600Z-210216T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KTSA.WC.Y.0002.210212T2037Z-210214T0600Z/
Osage-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-Mayes-
Delaware-Creek-
Including the cities of Pawhuska, Bartlesville, Nowata, Vinita, 
Miami, Pawnee, Tulsa, Claremore, Pryor, Grove, Jay, and Sapulpa
237 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY
NIGHT...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO
6 PM CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills tonight thru Monday. Wind chills as
  low as 20 below zero. Heavy snow expected Saturday night thru 
  Monday. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast Oklahoma.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from midnight Saturday 
  night to 6 PM CST Monday. For the Wind Chill Advisory, until 
  midnight CST Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The very 
  cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as 
  little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong and gusty north winds will cause
  significant blowing and drifting of snow, and dangerous travel
  conditions. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves. 

For the latest road conditions call 1-844-465-4997 or go to
okRoads.org.

&&

$$

OKZ049-053-065>076-131100-
/O.UPG.KTSA.WS.A.0003.210214T1200Z-210216T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KTSA.WS.W.0002.210214T0600Z-210216T0000Z/
Pushmataha-Choctaw-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Sequoyah-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Le Flore-
Including the cities of Antlers, Clayton, Hugo, Okemah, Okmulgee,
Wagoner, Tahlequah, Stilwell, Muskogee, Checotah, Sallisaw, 
McAlester, Stigler, Wilburton, and Poteau
237 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO
6 PM CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and very low wind chills expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 5 to 7 inches. Wind chills as low as 15 below 
  zero.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast and southeast 
  Oklahoma.

* WHEN...From midnight Saturday night to 6 PM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The cold
  wind chills as low as 15 below zero could cause frostbite on 
  exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong and gusty north winds will cause
  significant blowing and drifting of snow, and dangerous travel
  conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

For the latest road conditions call 1-844-465-4997 or go to
okRoads.org.

&&

$$

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-131100-
/O.CON.KTSA.WS.A.0003.210214T1200Z-210216T0000Z/
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Crawford-Franklin-Sebastian-
Including the cities of Rogers, Bentonville, Berryville, 
Eureka Springs, Fayetteville, Springdale, Huntsville, Van Buren, 
Ozark, Charleston, and Fort Smith
237 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and very cold wind chills expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 5 to 7 inches possible. Wind chills as low as 
  15 below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast and southeast 
  Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The cold
  wind chills as low as 15 below zero could cause frostbite on
  exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong and gusty north winds will cause
  significant blowing and drifting of snow, and dangerous travel
  conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio,commercial radio or television
for the latest information,forecasts,and warnings.
For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/tsa
344 
WWUS44 KTSA 130316
WSWTSA

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
916 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

...HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY...

OKZ054>064-131300-
/O.CON.KTSA.WS.W.0002.210214T0600Z-210216T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTSA.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210214T0600Z/
Osage-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-Mayes-
Delaware-Creek-
Including the cities of Pawhuska, Bartlesville, Nowata, Vinita, 
Miami, Pawnee, Tulsa, Claremore, Pryor, Grove, Jay, and Sapulpa
916 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
SATURDAY NIGHT...
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills tonight thru Monday. Wind chills 
  as low as 20 below zero. Heavy snow expected Saturday night 
  thru Monday. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast Oklahoma.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from midnight Saturday 
  night to 6 PM CST Monday. For the Wind Chill Advisory, until 
  midnight CST Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  very cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in 
  as little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong and gusty north winds will cause
  significant blowing and drifting of snow, and dangerous travel
  conditions. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves. 

For the latest road conditions call 1-844-465-4997 or go to
okRoads.org.

&&

$$

OKZ049-053-065>076-131300-
/O.CON.KTSA.WS.W.0002.210214T0600Z-210216T0000Z/
Pushmataha-Choctaw-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Sequoyah-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Le Flore-
Including the cities of Antlers, Clayton, Hugo, Okemah, Okmulgee,
Wagoner, Tahlequah, Stilwell, Muskogee, Checotah, Sallisaw, 
McAlester, Stigler, Wilburton, and Poteau
916 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and very low wind chills expected. Total 
  snow accumulations of 5 to 7 inches. Wind chills as low as 15 
  below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast and southeast 
  Oklahoma.

* WHEN...From midnight Saturday night to 6 PM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero could cause frostbite 
  on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong and gusty north winds will cause
  significant blowing and drifting of snow, and dangerous travel
  conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

For the latest road conditions call 1-844-465-4997 or go to
okRoads.org.

&&

$$

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-131300-
/O.CON.KTSA.WS.A.0003.210214T1200Z-210216T0000Z/
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Crawford-Franklin-Sebastian-
Including the cities of Rogers, Bentonville, Berryville, 
Eureka Springs, Fayetteville, Springdale, Huntsville, Van Buren, 
Ozark, Charleston, and Fort Smith
916 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and very cold wind chills expected. Total 
  snow accumulations of 5 to 7 inches possible. Wind chills as 
  low as 15 below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast and southeast 
  Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero could cause frostbite 
  on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong and gusty north winds will cause
  significant blowing and drifting of snow, and dangerous travel
  conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio,commercial radio or television
for the latest information,forecasts,and warnings.
For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/tsa
831 
WWUS44 KTSA 130940
WSWTSA

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
340 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

...HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

ARZ001-002-010-011-132300-
/O.UPG.KTSA.WS.A.0003.210214T1200Z-210216T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KTSA.WS.W.0002.210214T1200Z-210216T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KTSA.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210214T1200Z/
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-
Including the cities of Rogers, Bentonville, Berryville, 
Eureka Springs, Fayetteville, Springdale, and Huntsville
340 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, heavy snow and wind chills
  as low as 20 below zero expected Sunday morning through Monday
  afternoon. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches. For the
  Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills as low as 10 below
  zero expected through late Saturday night.

* WHERE...Benton, Carroll, Washington and Madison Counties in
  northwest Arkansas.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM 
  CST Monday. For the Wind Chill Advisory, until 6 AM CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The very
  cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as
  little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong and gusty north winds will cause 
  significant blowing and drifting of snow, and dangerous travel 
  conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves. 

For the latest road conditions call 1-800-245-1672 or go to
idrivearkansas.com.

&&

$$

ARZ019-020-029-132300-
/O.UPG.KTSA.WS.A.0003.210214T1200Z-210216T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KTSA.WS.W.0002.210214T1200Z-210216T0000Z/
Crawford-Franklin-Sebastian-
Including the cities of Van Buren, Ozark, Charleston, 
and Fort Smith
340 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6
  inches. Very low wind chill values to 10 below zero also
  expected.

* WHERE...Crawford, Franklin and Sebastian Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The very
  cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as 
  little as 30 minutes. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

For the latest road conditions call 1-800-245-1672 or go to
idrivearkansas.com.

&&

$$

OKZ054>064-132300-
/O.CON.KTSA.WS.W.0002.210214T0600Z-210216T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTSA.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210214T0600Z/
Osage-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-Mayes-
Delaware-Creek-
Including the cities of Pawhuska, Bartlesville, Nowata, Vinita, 
Miami, Pawnee, Tulsa, Claremore, Pryor, Grove, Jay, and Sapulpa
340 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT...
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 PM CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, heavy snow and wind chills
  as low as 25 below zero expected early Sunday morning through
  Monday afternoon. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches. 
  For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills as low as 15 
  below zero expected through Saturday evening.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast Oklahoma.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from midnight Saturday 
  night to 6 PM CST Monday. For the Wind Chill Advisory, until 
  midnight CST Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  very cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in 
  as little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong and gusty north winds will cause 
  significant blowing and drifting of snow, and dangerous travel 
  conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves.

For the latest road conditions call 1-844-465-4997 or go to
okRoads.org.

&&

$$

OKZ049-053-065>076-132300-
/O.CON.KTSA.WS.W.0002.210214T0600Z-210216T0000Z/
Pushmataha-Choctaw-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Sequoyah-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Le Flore-
Including the cities of Antlers, Clayton, Hugo, Okemah, Okmulgee,
Wagoner, Tahlequah, Stilwell, Muskogee, Checotah, Sallisaw, 
McAlester, Stigler, Wilburton, and Poteau
340 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 PM CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8
  inches. Very low wind chill values to 15 below zero also
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast and southeast 
  Oklahoma.

* WHEN...From midnight Saturday night to 6 PM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The very
  cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as 
  little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong and gusty north winds will cause 
  significant blowing and drifting of snow, and dangerous travel 
  conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

For the latest road conditions call 1-844-465-4997 or go to
okRoads.org.

&&

$$

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio,commercial radio or television
for the latest information,forecasts,and warnings.
For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/tsa

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm watch went out at Feb 12, 3:28 AM CST, 5 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 12, 3:28 AM CST, 5 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
328 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

.DISCUSSION...
The main forecast concern this morning is, well, pretty much the
entire forecast, with multiple winter weather impacts expected
through the middle of next week. Specifically, the potential for
two major snow storms - one Sunday/Monday and another
Tuesday/Wednesday - to affect the forecast area, as well as a
continuation and eventual worsening of the prolonged life-
threatening cold. One major update to the previous forecast is
that a Winter Storm Watch will be issued for all of eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas from Sunday morning through Monday
afternoon.

In the near term, the lake effect snow machine continues to
function, with the plume coming off Lake Oologah remaining well
defined on radar. With little variation expected in the wind
direction today, will extend the localized mention of accumulating
snow and the more widespread very light snow mention through this
afternoon, although will decrease POPs associated with the band
during the afternoon as dry air starts to move into the area. The
bulk of tonight should be dry. Another Wind Chill Advisory may be
needed for areas near the Kansas border late tonight but will
hold off on issuance for now, with the current forecast being
fairly marginal from a temporal standpoint.

Wintry precipitation potential on Saturday remains somewhat
uncertain. Most indications favor the previously noted trend of
holding off until Sunday on the accumulating snow potential with
the bulk of the forcing associated with the lead wave being well
south into Texas. The last two runs of the NAM are the outliers to
this trend. Will maintain the patchy freezing drizzle mention
Saturday morning across southeast Oklahoma, however, with the
later periods of the HRRR showing some ice accumulation there.

Accumulating snow will become increasingly likely beginning Sunday
morning, spreading from west to east, as the nose of the upper
jet begins to move into the region. Peak snowfall accumulation
continues to be favored Sunday night and into Monday as the main
upper level disturbance moves closer and eventually over the area.
Snow will taper off from southwest to northeast Monday afternoon,
with dry conditions probable by Monday night. Very cold
conditions will favor snow-to-liquid ratios in the 20 to 25:1
range, leading to a lot of accumulation with relatively little
QPF. Widespread 6-10" with this initial storm continues to look
likely, especially across northern portions of the forecast area,
and are not unreasonable given ensemble plume guidance.

Very cold air remains on track to arrive with and following this
system. Single digit high temperatures can still be expected for
parts of the forecast area both Sunday and Monday, in addition to
subzero lows. Wind chills well below zero will again occur during
this time frame.

The second potential winter storm currently looks to affect the
area late Tuesday and into Wednesday, although as you might
expect, there is more uncertainty associated with this one. This
includes low confidence in timing, area, and amounts. Will keep
things close to the blended guidance POP and snow amount wise
during this time frame, which favor lower amounts in northern
parts of the forecast area and higher to the south and east.
Expect some variation in this portion of the forecast in the
coming days.

After we get past the midweek system, we should emerge from the
Arctic Tundra. However, if we get all the snow that we're
expecting, the initial warmup will be delayed until we melt the
snowpack. As such, have trended the forecast temperatures colder
than most guidance Thursday and Friday of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   19  11  19   7 /  60  10   0  10
FSM   31  24  31  20 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   26  16  26  13 /  10   0   0  10
BVO   16   8  16   6 /  10   0   0  10
FYV   24  14  23  11 /  10   0  10  10
BYV   21  12  20   9 /  10   0  10   0
MKO   23  15  23  11 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   16   7  16   4 /  10   0  10  10
F10   22  13  22   9 /  10   0   0  10
HHW   31  24  32  24 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon
     for OKZ049-053>076.

     Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for OKZ054>064-067.

AR...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon
     for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

     Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for ARZ001.

&&

LONG TERM....22
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 11, 4:46 PM CST, 10 hours 47 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
446 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121130-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
446 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

WINTER WEATHER.
	SNOW ACCUMULATION.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Parts of Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	WIND CHILL.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Tonight.

DISCUSSION...
Light snow showers and flurries will remain possible through this
evening for parts of northeast Oklahoma due to a lake effect snow
band from consistent northerly flow over relatively warm lake
waters. A light dusting up to an inch of snow is possible in some
locations, especially around north Tulsa.

Winds will begin to pick up more tonight out of the north and wind
chill values will drop tonight, ranging from 5 below zero to as
low as 15 below in some locations. A wind chill advisory has been
issued for northeast Oklahoma beginning tonight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...Dangerous Wind Chill Potential.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Winter Weather Potential...
         Dangerous Wind Chill Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A slight chance of light snow will be possible over parts of
eastern Oklahoma Saturday as a weak disturbance pushes across the
Southern Plains. The greater potential for accumulating snowfall
for eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas will be with a low
pressure system forecast to push through the region Sunday and
Monday. There continues to be some uncertainty within the details
for this system, however there is increasing potential for a
period of impactful snowfall Sunday night into Monday. Continue to
monitor latest forecasts as accumulations and locations are
updated. A third low pressure system around the middle part of
next week could bring additional chances for snowfall to the
region.

Also through the upcoming weekend and into next week will be the
cold conditions across the region. Breezy northerly winds Friday
through Monday will aid in dangerous wind chill values for eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas each morning. The coldest values
look to be each morning Sunday through Tuesday with wind chills
forecast in the range of near 20 below zero to near zero degree
over the region.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
A significant winter storm is becoming increasing likely for
parts of the region Sunday into Monday. Continue to monitor for
the latest updates on timing and totals as the system comes into
greater focus.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 12, 2:37 PM CSTWind Chill AdvisoryTSABenton, Carroll, Madison, Washington39 hr
Feb 12, 2:37 PM CSTWinter Storm WarningTSABenton, Carroll, Madison, Washington69 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Watches in Oklahoma, 2021Winter Storm Watches in Arkansas, 2021Every winter storm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.