Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
940 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 930 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

Line of strong to severe storms continues just ahead of cold front
near I44 at present. Prefrontal environment remains supportive of
storms to be severe, especially to the east of US 75. Few reports
of 1" hail and 60 mph gusts when the line passed thru Tulsa metro.
Gusts behind the front across NE OK remaining just below advisory
levels and should remain so, but would not be surprised to see a
few 40+ gusts for the next few hours. Will continue to issue
updates to POP/Thunder probs as needed tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 158 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

Expect a breezy and much chillier airmass to overspread the area
on Monday. Have continued to use the NBM 90th percentile for
winds/gusts tonight into Monday, and wouldn't be surprised to see
a few gusts push advisory criteria. Monday and Tuesday will
feature below normal temps, with highs mostly remaining in the
40s.

Milder weather returns by Wednesday as mid-level heights rise and
southerly winds pick up. Well above normal temperatures appear
likely for Thursday and especially Friday as south/southwest
winds become gusty ahead of the next cold front. Highs will likely
bounce back well into the 70s for Friday.

A vigorous longwave wave is proggd to move into the Plains over
the weekend, with an associated cold front likely sweeping through
the area by Saturday. Light wintry weather continues to be a
possibility, although the longer range guidance continues to
struggle for any consensus concerning location of colder
air/precipitation. Will maintain the mention of a light wintry
mix mainly for Saturday night into early Sunday, although this
remains a low confidence forecast. We'll continue to monitor this
closely over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

Cold front has entered far NE OK and will make steady progress
southward overnight and likely pushing south of KMLC/KFSM around
midnight. MVFR to low VFR ceilings will likely remain in place
from SE OK through western AR ahead of the frontal passage.
Showers and storms are expected to develop this evening along the
frontal boundary and quickly expand in coverage along the
frontal corridor. Additional prefrontal convection may develop
across portions of western AR, otherwise aviation impacts due to
storms will end within a few hours of the frontal passage. Gusty
northerly winds will continue into the day Monday before gradually
decreasing mid to late afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  36  47  29 / MMM  60   0   0
FSM   74  42  52  30 / MMM  80   0   0
MLC   72  39  49  30 / MMM  80   0   0
BVO   75  34  45  25 / MMM  10   0   0
FYV   71  34  47  24 / MMM  80   0   0
BYV   72  35  44  26 / MMM  80   0   0
MKO   71  37  46  29 / MMM  80   0   0
MIO   71  34  44  27 / MMM  40   0   0
F10   73  36  47  29 / MMM  70   0   0
HHW   73  44  53  33 / MMM  80   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
514 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061145-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
514 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast of I-44.
	ONSET...After 8 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast of I-44.
	ONSET...After 8 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
There is a limited risk of severe thunderstorms this evening,
continuing into the overnight hours, across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas to the south of Interstate 44. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop early this evening as a strong cold front moves
into the area. Damaging straight line winds will be the main threat,
with a lower potential for large hail, and much lower threat of
tornadoes.

Prior to the arrival of the front this evening, isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms may develop across southeastern
Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. Severe weather is not expected
with this activity.

South to southwesterly wind will gust to near 30 mph into this
evening. The strong wind gusts along with humidity around 30
percent, will support a limited fire spread threat into early this
evening generally west of U.S. Highway 75 in northeast Oklahoma.
Once the front passes tonight, winds will then shift to the north
and gust to 35 mph.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY through THURSDAY...No Hazards.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Gusty northerly winds will continue into the daylight hours on Monday,
with a decreasing trend expected toward the evening as surface high
pressure moves into the area.

A low chance of rain will exist Tuesday night across western Arkansas
and adjacent portions of far eastern Oklahoma. Temperatures may be
cold enough in higher elevation areas to support a wintry mix, but
the overall probability of wintry impacts is low at this time.

South to southwest winds will increase Friday ahead of the another
strong cold front set to move through during the weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
853 PM CST SUN DEC 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     HAIL             TULSA                   36.13N 95.92W
12/05/2021  M1.00 INCH       TULSA              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR US 412 AND 49TH W
            AVE.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
854 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

OKZ057-058-061>063-060345-
Craig OK-Rogers OK-Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-Mayes OK-
854 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Craig,
central Rogers, Delaware, southeastern Ottawa and northern Mayes
Counties through 945 PM CST...

At 853 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Afton to near Tiawah. Movement was east at
40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Jay...                            Pryor...
Pryor Creek...                    Grove...
Salina...                         Afton...
Langley...                        Adair...
Bernice...                        Ketchum...
Spavinaw...                       Disney...
Pensacola...                      Hoot Owl...
Honey Creek State Park...         Cherokee State Park...
Bernice State Park...             Cleora...
Chloeta...                        Spavinaw State Park...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 257 and 258, and
near mile marker 296.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CST for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 9462 3626 9486 3623 9564 3672 9495
      3674 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0253Z 267DEG 36KT 3668 9495 3625 9559

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
943 PM CST SUN DEC 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     HAIL             PENSACOLA               36.45N 95.13W
12/05/2021  U1.75 INCH       MAYES              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
947 PM CST SUN DEC 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0911 PM     HAIL             4 SSW BROKEN ARROW      36.00N 95.82W
12/05/2021  E1.75 INCH       TULSA              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
951 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

ARZ001-060415-
Benton AR-
951 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Benton
County through 1015 PM CST...

At 950 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 2 miles north of Maysville to near Gateway.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Rogers...                         Bentonville...
Bella Vista...                    Pea Ridge...
Gravette...                       Decatur...
Garfield...                       Gateway...
Maysville...                      Hiwasse...
Miller...                         Centerton...
Avoca...                          Hill Top...
Walnut Hill...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 86 and 93.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CST for
northwestern Arkansas...and northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3639 9388 3638 9389 3637 9388 3631 9459
      3650 9462 3650 9387
TIME...MOT...LOC 0350Z 009DEG 5KT 3644 9461 3649 9397

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1003 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

OKZ063-067>070-060500-
Adair OK-Muskogee OK-Cherokee OK-Delaware OK-Wagoner OK-
1003 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern
Delaware, northern Adair, southeastern Wagoner, Cherokee and
northeastern Muskogee Counties through 1100 PM CST...

At 1003 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles east of Colcord to 2 miles south of
Haskell. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Muskogee...                       Tahlequah...
Wagoner...                        Fort Gibson...
Haskell...                        Westville...
West Siloam Springs...            Colcord...
Kansas...                         Okay...
Hulbert...                        Porter...
Watts...                          Oaks...
Taft...                           Tullahassee...
Christie...                       Peggs...
Pumpkin Center...                 Scraper...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CST for
northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3595 9453 3560 9540 3583 9570 3630 9460
TIME...MOT...LOC 0403Z 288DEG 27KT 3626 9461 3579 9567

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH