Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
152 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 139 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

Cap continues to slowly erode this afternoon in association with
stronger forcing/low level moisture transport ahead of approaching
upper trough. Extensive cloud cover, including scattered showers
have inhibited stronger surface heating but still expect SBCAPES
to climb into the 1000-1300 J/kg range by late afternoon.

Strong to severe storms are expected to develop in the 22-00Z time
frame west of Tulsa along frontal boundary with convective line
moving into the metro by early evening. Although deep layer shear
will be somewhat marginal, steep mid level lapse rates and low wet
bulb zero heights will support the potential for severe hail.
Further south, across southeast Oklahoma, a discrete thunderstorm or
two may develop ahead of main convective line. 0-1 km shear will
increase into the 35-40 knot range in association with low level
jet and at least a limited tornado threat with large hail/damaging
winds will persist through the evening hours. In addition, brief
heavy rainfall will be possible over much of the region as PWAT
values climb to around 1.25 inches, which is 2 standard deviations
from normal. With dormant vegetation over some of the area,
localized flooding will be possible with a few of the stronger
storms.

The overall severe threat will begin to slowly diminish as line of
storms move into northwest Arkansas late this evening with the
heavier precipitation shifting east of area around 3 am.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 139 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

Cooler conditions into Thursday behind front with high temperatures
in the lower 60s. A secondary mid level vort max will rotate
around backside of stronger upper low developing over the western
Great Lakes region late Thursday night into early Friday morning.
A few light rain showers will be possible during this time across
NE OK/NW AR with a secondary surge of cooler air into the day
Friday. 1026 MB surface high pressure progged to build over the
region by Saturday morning and with light winds/clear skies,
expect the potential for a more widespread freeze. Another weak
cold front will move through on Sunday but with limited moisture
to work with, any precipitation would be light a best. As zonal
flow aloft becomes established into the early part of next week,
warmer conditions are expected with increasing southerly winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 AM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

The main aviation concerns are convective impacts expected to
affect all the terminals, primarily this evening into very early
tomorrow morning, moving from west to east. IFR conditions will be
most likely to affect the E OK terminals, with thunderstorm
intensity likely to fade as the storms move into NW AR due to
lower instability. Isolated severe weather could occur, but
confidence and coverage of such are not high enough to include
that kind of wind mention in the TAFs at this time. Conditions
should improve at each terminal quickly following the passage of
the front and associated thunderstorms, with VFR conditions and a
shift to northwesterly winds expected by sunrise tomorrow
everywhere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   45  63  42  55 /  80   0  20   0
FSM   49  64  42  59 / 100   0  10  20
MLC   46  63  42  58 / 100   0   0  10
BVO   42  61  40  53 /  70   0  20   0
FYV   43  60  37  54 / 100   0  10  20
BYV   45  58  40  51 / 100   0  10  10
MKO   45  61  42  54 / 100   0  10  10
MIO   43  59  40  51 / 100   0  20  10
F10   45  63  41  56 / 100   0  10  10
HHW   49  64  41  61 / 100   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
438 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111130-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
438 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Remainder of this Afternoon and Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 6 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered strong thunderstorms have started to develop across
portions of eastern Oklahoma late this afternoon.  The thunderstorm
activity will likely continue to increase in coverage and intensity
into the evening hours. Some of these storms could be severe with
damaging winds and hail to the size of quarters the main concerns.
Although the overall tornado threat is limited, the potential for a
tornado or two will exist for a short time early this evening across
southeast Oklahoma. The overall severe weather potential will begin
to decrease as storms move into northwest Arkansas late this evening
although a few strong storms could persist. In addition to the
severe thunderstorm potential, localized heavy rainfall and flash
flooding are possible through the evening hours.  The heavier
precipitation will shift east of northwest Arkansas between Midnight
and 3 AM.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.
FRIDAY...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A reinforcing cold front will pass Thursday night with gusty
northerly winds and cooler temperatures on Friday. Dry and cooler
weather continues through the weekend with warmer temperatures and
a return to southerly winds by early next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
416 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

OKZ054-059-102300-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
416 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Osage
and northwestern Pawnee Counties through 500 PM CST...

At 415 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Red
Rock, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fairfax...                        Ralston...
Burbank...                        Sooner Lake...
Southern Kaw Lake...              Apperson...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3670 9703 3668 9694 3675 9689 3674 9683
      3677 9682 3677 9679 3678 9679 3678 9675
      3650 9664 3639 9703 3651 9703 3651 9701
      3653 9698 3655 9690 3658 9689 3660 9692
      3658 9698 3659 9705 3660 9704 3668 9706
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 232DEG 22KT 3646 9714

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Snider

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
459 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

OKZ054-059-102345-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
459 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Osage
and northwestern Pawnee Counties through 545 PM CST...

At 459 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 4 miles
northeast of Sooner Lake, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fairfax...                        Ralston...
Burbank...                        Sooner Lake...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3651 9703 3651 9701 3652 9701 3653 9698
      3653 9696 3655 9692 3655 9690 3657 9689
      3658 9689 3660 9692 3672 9673 3642 9661
      3633 9696 3633 9703
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 232DEG 22KT 3647 9697

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Snider