Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1229 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Latest radar trends have line of strong thunderstorms impacting
eastern Oklahoma TAF sites starting in the 08-09z time frame.
Although storms should begin to weaken as convective line moves
into a more stable air-mass, a brief period of 30 to 40 knot
gusts will still be possible in the stronger bow segments. Storms
still expected to move into northwest Arkansas by early to mid
morning with periods of heavy rain. As wrap around precipitation
continues over much of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
this afternoon into the evening hours, IFR to occasionally LIFR
conditions will be possible as light to moderate rain persists.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1024 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Evening updated was a little delayed due to analysis of 00z data.

This evening...a surface low resided across Western Kansas/Western
Nebraska with a dryline extending southward through the far eastern
portion of the Texas Panhandle and into west Texas. Just behind
the dryline was a cold front across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles
into Southeast New Mexico. A warm front/nearly stationary surface
boundary stretched southeast from the surface low through
Central/South Central Oklahoma and Northeast Texas. Storms had
initiated along the dryline this evening and were spreading
northeast within the warm sector defined between the dryline and
surface/warm front. Further east across Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas...mostly cloudy and breezy southeasterly winds
were common...while the 60+ dewpoint line resided along and west
of a line near Pawnee to Hugo.

Overnight tonight...a linear line of showers and storms are
expected to continue to develop and push into Eastern Oklahoma
around 06-07z...into far Eastern Oklahoma around 12z and into
Northwest Arkansas by mid morning Wednesday. Current thinking has
not changed all that much with the strong to severe
potentials...with the western portions of Eastern Oklahoma having
the greater potential. The warm sector may push into Southeast
Oklahoma...though instability across Northeast Oklahoma looks to
be mainly elevated and weakening after 09z. Locally damaging winds
are forecast to be the primary threat with a secondary threat for
large hail and also a very low tornado threat as strong low level
shear/SRH and a 40-50KT low level jet are expected ahead of the
line. Further eastward with time...severe potentials should
continue to weaken through the early morning hours Wednesday.

With the broken/overcast cloud cover and continued breezy/gusty
south southeasterly winds...temps tonight should not cool all that
much with forecast lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s common. For
the evening update...have adjusted pops/wx based on timing and to
slow the cooling underneath the cloud cover. Otherwise...current
forecast seems to be handling well at this time.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
518 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
518 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...West of Highway 75 in Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After Midnight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After Midnight.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Along and West of Highway 75 in Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After Midnight.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are forecast to initially develop along a dryline
over western Oklahoma early this evening and spread eastward into
eastern Oklahoma after midnight tonight and into northwest
Arkansas early Wednesday morning. Some of these storms could be
strong to severe with damaging wind gusts and large hail the main
severe weather concerns. A very small tornado threat will also
exist west of Highway 75 in eastern Oklahoma. In addition to the
severe threat, locally heavy rainfall could lead to flash
flooding. Rainfall rates with these showers and storms may briefly
exceed 2 inches per hour.

Gusty southeast winds late this afternoon are expected to continue
into tonight ahead of a storm system moving into the region
overnight and Wednesday. Wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph are possible
for much of the region with gusts around 35 mph and locally
higher possible over parts of northeast Oklahoma.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy
			Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Showers and storms will be ongoing across the area Wednesday
morning. A secondary wave of storms will likely trigger along the
cold front by early afternoon across eastern Oklahoma before
moving into western Arkansas. Some of these storms could briefly
become severe. Locally heavy rainfall which may lead to localized
flash flooding will be possible. Gusty winds will also continue to
be possible during the day Wednesday and increase further
Wednesday night.

Gusty winds are expected to peak Thursday as the upper system
begins to move out. Gusts may exceed 40 miles per hour at times
across much of the area. By Friday, winds look to weaken some
though still remaining gusty with gusts of 20 to 30 mph possible.
The upper level low pressure system is forecast to finally exit
the region Friday with quieter weather forecast for the upcoming
weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
131 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

OKZ054-059-060-064>066-270730-
Tulsa OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Okfuskee OK-Pawnee OK-Creek OK-
131 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Osage, Creek, Pawnee,
northwestern Okmulgee, west central Tulsa and Okfuskee Counties
through 230 AM CDT...

At 130 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 3 miles west of Ponca City to 2 miles southeast
of Morrison to 3 miles north of Agra to near Johnson. Movement was
northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bristow...                        Pawhuska...
Okemah...                         Pawnee...
Okfuskee...                       Hominy...
Cleveland...                      Mannford...
Drumright...                      Fairfax...
Boley...                          Kellyville...
Oilton...                         Depew...
Paden...                          Shidler...
Wynona...                         Jennings...
Ralston...                        Westport...

This includes the following highways,
 Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 212 and 228.
 Interstate 44 between mile markers 178 and 207.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9642 3664 9628 3631 9617 3529 9615
      3529 9644 3546 9644 3540 9662 3616 9662
      3616 9682 3624 9682 3625 9692 3633 9693
      3634 9703 3651 9703 3658 9689 3659 9705
      3668 9706 3668 9694 3678 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0630Z 238DEG 42KT 3672 9715 3626 9699 3594 9685 3542
9686

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH